re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The US is in talks with close partners to lead a group of allies that would give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets that have been frozen – and are accruing interest — mostly in Europe.

The plan is being discussed among the Group of Seven nations, with the US pushing to have an agreement when G-7 leaders meet in Italy in June, according to people familiar with the proposal. Discussions on this topic have been difficult and an agreement could still take months, they said.

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When asked about this type of proposal in which the US, or a subset of G-7 countries, put up the aid money, which the EU would repay using the frozen assets, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “it’s something we’re discussing.”

“Ideally, this is something we would like the entire G-7 to participate in, be part of, not just have the United States doing it alone,” she told Bloomberg in an interview in Sedona, Arizona, Friday.

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The latest development follows months of discussion among allies over how to take on board European fears about EU exposure to risks of using the frozen Russian assets, while also putting aid for Ukraine on a more sustainable footing.

Most European nations have pushed back against outright confiscation of the assets and have been skeptical of proposals they fear would undermine the euro’s stability or expose them to Russian retaliation. The US push essentially boils down to finding a way to provide Ukraine with the largest possible support quickly rather than in smaller amounts, by better mobilizing the profits produced by the frozen assets, said the people.

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The G-7 countries have immobilized about $280 billion of Russian central bank assets in response to President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with the majority held in Europe through the Belgium-based clearing house Euroclear.

Some €159 billion of frozen Russian assets have generated net profit of €557 million ($601 million) from Feb. 15, according to Euroclear’s first quarter financial results. Since last year, the assets have generated about €3.9 billion in net profit.

Russian sovereign assets held by the company could grow to as much as €190 billion by 2028 as they mature into cash, one of the people said.

The assets are expected to generate about €5 billion in windfall profits annually and a central element of the US proposal is to bring forward those proceeds to increase the amount of support Ukraine receives in the near term.

The size of the aid that would be immediately provided to Kyiv would depend on the length of their repayment terms and how long the assets were immobilized to fund the bonds, according to the people.

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