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I’m slowly warming up to the Penix/Cousins situation
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:46 pm
Lets say Cousins plays 2 years at a similar level to his Vikings career, as expected. And let’s also assume that 2 years comfortably learning an NFL system does in fact make Penix a better QB than throwing him into the fire year 1, and he is ready to go as a playoff contending starter in 2026. Let’s also assume a QB desperate team gives up a 2nd or 3rd rounder to acquire Cousins after 2025.
Break it down by cap number and season:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 40 mil; Penix: 5 mil
2026: Cousins: 25 mil in dead money; Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
That’s an average cap hit of 28 mil per season for 5 years of what should be very good QB play. Very reasonable. And it gets you a potential playoff team from Day 1 instead of playing through the hiccups of Penix developing his first few seasons (and potentially ruining his confidence). Winning teams attract good free agents, and Penix should be stepping into a solid situation in 2026. Add in a 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation for Cousins and this doesn’t look bad at all.
And let’s say hypothetically that Penix looks amazing in practice or fills in for an injured Cousins and plays masterfully in his rookie season and its clear he is ready to take over a year early in 2025. Now the cap numbers look like this:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 38 mil dead money, Penix: 5 mil
2026: Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
Now that average cap hit is 23 mil per year.
Bottom line, if Penix is great, they still have an affordable cap situation. If he is good but needs more time, they can still win now with an affordable cap hit. If Penix is a total bust, they are just like any other franchise that drafts a 1st round bust, except they have Cousins playing instead of the bust.
Break it down by cap number and season:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 40 mil; Penix: 5 mil
2026: Cousins: 25 mil in dead money; Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
That’s an average cap hit of 28 mil per season for 5 years of what should be very good QB play. Very reasonable. And it gets you a potential playoff team from Day 1 instead of playing through the hiccups of Penix developing his first few seasons (and potentially ruining his confidence). Winning teams attract good free agents, and Penix should be stepping into a solid situation in 2026. Add in a 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation for Cousins and this doesn’t look bad at all.
And let’s say hypothetically that Penix looks amazing in practice or fills in for an injured Cousins and plays masterfully in his rookie season and its clear he is ready to take over a year early in 2025. Now the cap numbers look like this:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 38 mil dead money, Penix: 5 mil
2026: Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
Now that average cap hit is 23 mil per year.
Bottom line, if Penix is great, they still have an affordable cap situation. If he is good but needs more time, they can still win now with an affordable cap hit. If Penix is a total bust, they are just like any other franchise that drafts a 1st round bust, except they have Cousins playing instead of the bust.
26
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:50 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
let’s also assume
quote:
Let’s also assume
quote:
he is ready to go as a playoff contending starter in 2026.
Do you even see what you've written?
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:52 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
Favorite team: Alabama
Checks out
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:13 pm to MillerLiteTime
Shouldn't have signed Cousins if Penix was that high on their wish list. Could have beefed up their suspect defense and signed Minshew
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:13 pm to MillerLiteTime
You’re burning at minimum 1 year of a first round rookie QB contract, more likely 2. The most valuable thing in football, gone for a portion.
Not to mention, Penix will be 25-26 at the earliest when he takes the reins.
It’s a bad pick
Not to mention, Penix will be 25-26 at the earliest when he takes the reins.
It’s a bad pick
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:36 pm to MillerLiteTime
You are forgetting one important factor… Penix is like glass…..
Posted on 5/4/24 at 6:42 pm to MillerLiteTime
Even if Penix turns out to be the next Mahomes, you already paid Kirk Cousins a shite ton of guaranteed money, so that voids the biggest advantage of signing an elite rookie QB.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 6:49 pm to MillerLiteTime
I'll upvote. Saints "fans" are envious of anything Atlanta does
Posted on 5/4/24 at 6:52 pm to MillerLiteTime
The only way that situation works out is if Cousins is a complete bust.
Atlanta either threw away $180 million, or they threw away a first round draft pick. That's the best case scenario.
Terry Fontenot is doing a great job over there.
Atlanta either threw away $180 million, or they threw away a first round draft pick. That's the best case scenario.
Terry Fontenot is doing a great job over there.
This post was edited on 5/4/24 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 5/4/24 at 7:00 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:You should quickly cool down then.
I’m slowly warming up
Posted on 5/4/24 at 8:57 pm to MillerLiteTime
Someone was gonna pay cousins.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 9:00 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
I’m slowly warming up to the Penix
Baw we really don't care about your sexual preference
Posted on 5/4/24 at 10:31 pm to MillerLiteTime
I figure he will be the starter due to a season ending injury to Cousins (which at this point has been paid and don't give a shite) about game 3 or 4 and he plays well for a few weeks.
He even has Atlanta in the "playoff" talk about week 12-13, then he crashes like most rookies. After team has some film and the realize what they are up against.
He even has Atlanta in the "playoff" talk about week 12-13, then he crashes like most rookies. After team has some film and the realize what they are up against.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 9:08 am to MillerLiteTime
You see everything the Texans are doing? They are absolutely legit superbowl contenders this year, year 2 of Ryans’ tenure.
They are able to do this, exactly as the 49ers have been able to do this, because they are taking advantage of the rookie QB salary advantage.
The Falcons completely pissed that away, BUT had every opportunity to so just that.
They went the traditional route and paid a veteran. You can’t have it both ways.
They are able to do this, exactly as the 49ers have been able to do this, because they are taking advantage of the rookie QB salary advantage.
The Falcons completely pissed that away, BUT had every opportunity to so just that.
They went the traditional route and paid a veteran. You can’t have it both ways.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 9:08 am to MillerLiteTime
Using the 8th pick for a QB after making a huge deal for a QB in the offseason seems like an oddity to me.
Full time starters and all pro level players are available at pick 8.
4 other QBs had already been taken.
Falcons needed help on defense.
Could have had Dallas Turner to increase sacks, a corner, something.
I would have rather had Bowers to deploy two TE sets.
Maybe Penix becomes an NFL hall of famer, but for today, I think the falcons missed an opportunity to improve their team.
Full time starters and all pro level players are available at pick 8.
4 other QBs had already been taken.
Falcons needed help on defense.
Could have had Dallas Turner to increase sacks, a corner, something.
I would have rather had Bowers to deploy two TE sets.
Maybe Penix becomes an NFL hall of famer, but for today, I think the falcons missed an opportunity to improve their team.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 9:20 am to MillerLiteTime
quote:
I’m slowly warming up to the Penix
Sounds kinda dirty
Posted on 5/5/24 at 9:30 am to MillerLiteTime
The GM just doubled down at the QB position and then decided to double down on once-fired DC Raheem Morris, sporting a 21-38 all-time head coaching record. What could happen?
Posted on 5/5/24 at 9:36 am to MillerLiteTime
Cousins will never make 17 games
Penis will be the starter by the end of the year
Penis will be the starter by the end of the year
Posted on 5/5/24 at 12:35 pm to MillerLiteTime
idk i think 25 million in dead cap in year 3 isn’t great for their cap.
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