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re: Important Series + RPI Tracker 5/16-5/20

Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:52 pm to
Posted by IntenseKid
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2014
2832 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:52 pm to
Cincinnati was on bubble coming into weekend. Lost two to a good OU team. Does this matter? Also losing 3-0 right now.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 5:55 pm
Posted by Traceg03
LA
Member since Jun 2018
808 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:19 pm to
Yes, does matter. I think their metrics were a lot worse (50s) but Kendall had them as a bubble team. I didn’t full understand it maybe because the conference?
Posted by DunbartonLATiger
Member since Apr 2024
353 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

So a Florida loss tomorrow to UGA they would have to have to win 3 games to stay alive. 2 wins and 2 losses they would be 500 still.


they are a game above .500 now with that comeback win today....unless I'm missing something....if they win tomorrow they won't be below .500.
Posted by Traceg03
LA
Member since Jun 2018
808 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:33 pm to
quote:

they are a game above .500 now with that comeback win today....unless I'm missing something....if they win tomorrow they won't be below .500.


From how it was explained by Kendall Rodgers of D1 Baseball, you have to finish the regular season Above .500 because you have to be considered a winning team and .500 is just not a losing team but it’s not a winning team. Even if the regular season part isn’t accurate and it counts tournament games as well. They would have to win Atleast 3 because unless they win the SEC Tournament they would lose Atleast 2 unless they made it to the semi finals where it turns back into single elimination.
Posted by IntenseKid
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2014
2832 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:01 pm to
I mentioned if they lose tomorrow. They would be .500 again. So they would have to finish above .500 in Hoover to be above .500 for the overall record. That will be hard to do for them in my opinion.

LSU beating ole miss tomorrow makes it almost impossible for them as well.
Posted by IntenseKid
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2014
2832 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:04 pm to
That’s what I was thinking too. Thanks for confirming. With their high RPI, having them eliminated would be huge. It could come down yo us or them if they qualified and they would have the head to head.

I think UGA beating Florida would be huge for us tomorrow.
Posted by boweswi05
birmingham
Member since Aug 2016
5694 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:51 pm to
quote:

LSU up to #33 in RPI (+2 from yesterday)


Where will LSU be realistically if they sweep Ole Miss?

27-30?
Posted by CWILKS3
Covington
Member since Apr 2020
843 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:52 pm to
Looking on Warren Nolan, our predicted RPI is 31 with a win vs Ole Miss tomorrow. That also depends on every other one of their predictions to be correct. Root for teams in front of us to lose
Posted by Traceg03
LA
Member since Jun 2018
808 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:53 pm to
Updated 5/17 9:00

Added South Carolina / Tenn series since we could possibly end up 13-17 in SEC play like South Carolina which I did not expect. Also added Auburn and alabama (wtf is going on at Auburn) I will take it tho
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 11:24 pm
Posted by CWILKS3
Covington
Member since Apr 2020
843 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:58 pm to
Auburn up 11-2 on Bama in the 5th. tomorrow is going to be so fricking nerve racking
Posted by DBG
vermont
Member since May 2004
72458 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 9:00 pm to
Trace is a good man doing good work
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
17943 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 9:02 pm to
Bama about to get run ruled by Auburn

That’ll put LSU in a tie for 8th place with 1 to go
Posted by SoloTiger
Member since Aug 2016
9566 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 9:18 pm to
If LSU wins tomorrow and everything goes LSU's way tomorrow with other games they can finish tied for 7th in the SEC.

Crazy
Posted by Traceg03
LA
Member since Jun 2018
808 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 9:20 pm to
I think the only other team that we are tied with who would be favorites tomorrow is Alabama.

Florida has Cag on mound though so I feel like they have a decent chance vs Georgia

Sundays in the SEC can always go unexpected.
Posted by MikeTheTiger71
Member since Dec 2021
3054 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 9:53 pm to
quote:

Looking on Warren Nolan, our predicted RPI is 31 with a win vs Ole Miss tomorrow.


That’s one of the screwy things about the RPI formula. You would think that sweeping an Ole Miss team that was around #25 in the RPI headed into the series would be a huge boost to LSU’s RPI, but it really isn’t. Ole Miss is so high because their opponents have really good records, which is given 50% weight. Unfortunately, those good records only go into the 25% bucket for LSU, while Ole Miss’ barely above .500 record goes into the 50% bucket for LSU. It just shows how arbitrary and flawed RPI really is.
Posted by GorgeousGeorge
Nola
Member since Jul 2014
2019 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:14 pm to
I’m not an expert, but a lot of these results seem to be very favorable for us.
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
7771 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:46 pm to
13 - 17 ....not 13 - 18 Dont give em an extra loss!!
Posted by IntenseKid
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2014
2832 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:51 pm to
It’s seems like it.
Not sure if cincys come from behind win vs OU helps them or not.

Arizona losing (helps our RPI)
Vandy lost (this one may be a bigger deal if we win and they lose tomorrow)
Bama lost ( same as above)

D1 baseball May 15 projections had:
LAST FOUR IN: UCF, Northeastern, Utah, Cincinnati

FIRST FOUR OUT: Maryland, James Madison, Virginia Tech, Ole Miss

UCF lost at least once this weekend
Northeastern is 2-0
Utah is 0-2( or about to be)
Cincy (1-2 vs OU). Came from 6-0 deficit today.
James Madison postponed
Virginia tech lost twice this weekend
Maryland lost twice
Ole miss lost twice.

Seems like this bodes pretty good for us. I think we shoot up into last 4 in with a win tomorrow.

Other teams to watch:
Bama
Vandy
Florida
Xavier is 0-2 and May fall out of the field
Ga tech is 0-2 but may be safely in with their conf record
TCU lost a game

I wish they would post an updated field projection as of tonight. Would be interesting to see those last 4 in and out teams.

This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 10:54 pm
Posted by GRIZZ
PRAIRIEVILLE
Member since Nov 2009
5284 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:57 pm to
Strong work putting this together. Just need the Tigers to show up tomorrow and let the other chips fall.
Posted by Traceg03
LA
Member since Jun 2018
808 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:59 pm to
quote:


13 - 17 ....not 13 - 18 Dont give em an extra loss!!


I'm confused where are you talking about am I blind? I looked at the post twice over and do not see the mistake
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