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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:44 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:44 pm to rds dc
quote:
The GFS isn't coupled to the sea surface, therefore it produces unrealistic results in situations like this. If the system approaches the Outer Banks and then does an cyclonic loop before moving inland, it would be much weaker than the 12z GFS is showing. The combo of up welling of the shallow shelf waters and interaction with land would likely cause significant weakening before the system could move back inland.
I mentioned to Duke that the 900mb central pressure reading at 153 hours "only" had a wind gust estimate of 143 MPH, which doesn't exactly jive with the pressure.
I'd think the wind gust is closer to accurate and the pressure is coming in way too low.
0
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:45 pm to TheGasMan
quote:
Good stuff. Also with Hurricane Juaquin in 2015, we got 28" of rain on the coast, had a break in the weather for 2 days, and then they opened the spillways on both dams, flooding the coast a second time. Charleston always has to pick up Columbia trash
When they opened the spillway at Lake Murray, there were some communities who were flooded out.
I'm not sure if they had ever opened the spillways in a real-life weather event before that, so development had gotten so complacent about building in that area.
YouTube of the Lake Murray Spillway opening
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:46 pm to GetCocky11
Charleston folks- just read they are reversing the interstates at Noon tomorrow.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:47 pm to DawgCountry
quote:
assume Catawba river will flood too?
There's certainly that potential. But at this point it's a wait and see until the rainfall total bullseye gets more refined. That said, the upper end of the Catawba extends a good ways north into the mountains, so there's a decent chance at least a portion of the watershed gets pounded. Then it all has to go south through Charlotte and into SC.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:47 pm to rt3
Yep
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:47 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
A friend of mine in Virginia had some pretty decent flooding going on this morning. Already starting to get in his house. I guess they’ve been getting a lot of rain for a while now. All that water is gonna have nowhere to go.
We've had a massive amount of rain in the past 3 days and not slowing down. I would not be surprised to see major flooding in DC. Old Town Alexandria was already completely flooded this weekend.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:48 pm to ell_13
quote:
Yep
yeah glad to hear he's getting out of there
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:49 pm to ShYzA
quote:
just read they are reversing the interstates at Noon tomorrow.
Are ya'll expecting major traffic issues for an evacuation like this?
Even with contra-flow, it's a total shitshow to get out of south La when everyone decides to leave for a hurricane.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:49 pm to rds dc
NHC up to 50% for 95L
1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:50 pm to Dlab2013
quote:
How far inland do y’all think will be safe? Still trying to plan where to stage up on Sunday...
Head towards Jacksonville, and then work your way up North on 95 as we get closer to seeing where landfall is.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:50 pm to rt3
He's a PA now. 8 miles from the coast there and just over a mile from the river. Not sure where he's heading though. I told him to come here. 
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:51 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Are ya'll expecting major traffic issues for an evacuation like this?
Even with contra-flow, it's a total shitshow to get out of south La when everyone decides to leave for a hurricane.
I feel like it went pretty smoothly last time.
Unless they cancel the Carolina and Clemson football games, I'm not sure where they're going to find hotels.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:52 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Oh, you know there will be YouTubes. Let's just hope they're more entertaining than tragic.
"Jeff"
I’m curious to see how close Jeff gets to this one. Come on Jeff, you know you want that high again
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:52 pm to ell_13
quote:
He's a PA now. 8 miles from the coast there and just over a mile from the river. Not sure where he's heading though. I told him to come here.
quote:
Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system.
may want to hold off on that "coming here" thing
I mean... that blob may be better to deal with than Florence... but you never know
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
NHC up to 50% for 95L
Seems like there disorganized storms are often big rain makers, kinda worried about this one given how much rain Houston has already gotten and will get in the next few days
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:54 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
My neighborhood is on Johns Island, rather centrally located (close to Maybank Hwy). It supposedly did not have flooding with Matthew or the 100 year floods the year prior in SC. Am I still looking pretty safe with the storm surge predicted so far with Florence?
You'll be alright my dude! As long as this bitch stays the predicted course, the Stono River isn't going to see more water than it did during Matthew.
Prepare for what you saw for Matthew as of now.
Anyone from McClellanville north can expect more water than Matthew brought.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:54 pm to Duke
quote:
47 inches...
Nobody can take that many Tyrone's in that amount of time
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:54 pm to LSU2NO
When the map is zoomed out it doesn't look terrible compared to a LA hit, but zooming in, there are a shite top of populated areas 9+ feet underwater.
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