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Started By
Message
re: April jobs number 175k, well below 240k estimates. Markets rally
Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:52 am to wiltznucs
Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:52 am to wiltznucs
quote:
We throw this term around far too casually. We’re nowhere near such a phenomenon.
We're closer than you think.
Inflation is not only high, but has been rising (despite sustained rate hikes), growth slowed tremendously in Q1 and Unemployment is starting to tick up.
Unemployment isn't really considered "high" until it gets above 5% (the annual average for the last ~century is about 5%, if memory serves), so we still have a ways to go there.
Job creation finally dropped and Unemployment has moved up, likely we can assume economic activity is slowing.
All in all, we're likely about halfway into a "stagflation" scenario and trending points toward that movement toward stagflation to continue.
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Posted on 5/3/24 at 9:59 am to wiltznucs
quote:
While the prospect of paying 7-8% on a home loan seems blasphemous to many. Odds are your parents happily refinanced to get that rate 30 years ago.
The problem is that because mortgages were 2-3% for so long, prices inflated to the point that 7-8% for the average house now is a much higher % of your income than double that in the 70's and 80's.
There is just too much investment in housing for there to ever be a significant dip in home prices as well. Its most people's largest single investment... housing and other real estate is in everyone's 401k...
The rates not being high historically =/= that they aren't high considering the current economic climate.
But you're right on your main point about stagflation... we have a lot of doomers here.
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:20 am to slackster
quote:
That’s why I laughed at waiting until 5% unemployment. By then the pendulum is going the wrong way with momentum.
The average unemployment rate for the last century is around 5%. Getting back to only less than average for a brief period isn't going to tamp down demand nearly enough to keep inflation manageable. Using the 4% range as a marker is going to just keep inflation as sticky as it has been for the last year because it's not enough to really squash enough of the latent demand that's assimilating to current levels to become actual demand (like we've seen with the housing market).
Posted on 5/3/24 at 10:20 am to KWL85
quote:
My guess is you are lost. The OT board is a different page. Or Poli board.
Dude, the numbers are what they are. You realize the numbers are broken out by full time vs part time, right? If I’m wrong, show me the numbers. Because the ones I’ve seen show a loss of full time jobs over the last year. Is the truth upsetting to you?
This post was edited on 5/3/24 at 10:56 am
Posted on 5/3/24 at 2:30 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
What is the effect of rate cuts in the face of raging inflation?
Inflation is raging?
Posted on 5/3/24 at 3:31 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Inflation is raging?
Wake the frick up. What world are you living in?
Posted on 5/3/24 at 4:05 pm to SloaneRanger
You’re melting about price changes from YEARS ago while global growth is starting to contract and you’re cheering on people losing their jobs. Congrats.
Posted on 5/5/24 at 3:41 pm to SloaneRanger
Dude, the numbers are what they are. You realize the numbers are broken out by full time vs part time, right? If I’m wrong, show me the numbers. Because the ones I’ve seen show a loss of full time jobs over the last year. Is the truth upsetting to you?
____________
I was speaking to your claim that they are all filled by illegals. Show me those numbers.
The job market is strong. Everyone that wants a job can get one. There has been a growing pattern of companies using more part-time positions to prevent from paying full time benefits. That does not represent weakness in jobs that you imply. You sound desperate for bad news.
____________
I was speaking to your claim that they are all filled by illegals. Show me those numbers.
The job market is strong. Everyone that wants a job can get one. There has been a growing pattern of companies using more part-time positions to prevent from paying full time benefits. That does not represent weakness in jobs that you imply. You sound desperate for bad news.
This post was edited on 5/5/24 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:07 am to KWL85
When did I say “all?” I said mostly, and I stand by that because it’s true. You know they also track and break out the stats for US born and foreign born workers, right? Why don’t you look at how that’s gone over the past year or so and report back.
Oh, and the availability of low paying, part time work =\= a strong job market.
Oh, and the availability of low paying, part time work =\= a strong job market.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 10:13 am to SloaneRanger
So back up your claim with data. I don't think you can.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 11:23 am to KWL85
quote:
I was speaking to your claim that they are all filled by illegals. Show me those numbers.
“Illegals” just here hanging out? No, they are working all the jobs gringos don’t want to do.
It is very simple for them to get an ID that will pass standards since immigration barely pays attention anymore.
Painting, construction, agriculture, chicken plants, labor intensive manufacturing, landscaping..all these business heavily “employ” “illegals”.
Actually the plan. Get them all here, allow them to vote and work.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 4:34 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:Illegals filling those jobs that show up in these reports is just nonsense, even if they are filling jobs unreported.
LOL, the aforementioned job growth has been in low paid part time jobs. Mostly filled by illegals. We’ve been losing full time jobs for a while now.
However, there is nothing inherently wrong with part-time jobs; the reasons matter. If one only needs or wants a part time job, then getting a part time job is good. If one needs or wants a full time job, then only getting a part time job is not so good.
Regardless, given that prime-age employment is near record highs, but boomers finally started to retire post-pandemic, which we knew would eventually come, I would expect part time employment to increase, as those retirees decide to work but on a part time base.
As for wages though. The lower wage jobs have had by far the most significant increase in wages over the last couple years, likely taking advantage of the tight labor market.
I just don’t understand this incessant need to find every little reason why something is bad whenever an economic report is released. If it’s a really good report, then y’all will find some obscure, highly volatile metric, that nobody has focused on before, even when the metric was worse in previous administrations to use as some sort of canary in the coal mine for a bad economic situation.
And when the reports aren’t great, then understandably focus on actual important metrics, but you ignore that the same obscure and volatile metric that focused on to downplay a good report, is often actually positive when it’s not a great report. Canary in the coal mine one month; completely ignored the next.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 5:40 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I just don’t understand this incessant need to find every little reason why something is bad whenever an economic report is released. If it’s a really good report, then y’all will find some obscure, highly volatile metric, that nobody has focused on before, even when the metric was worse in previous administrations to use as some sort of canary in the coal mine for a bad economic situation.
Meh, I think you have it backwards. Too many people just look at the headline number and draw sweeping conclusions about the strength of “job growth” when the devil is in the details. Look back at my post that you quoted and you will see that I was responding to the assertion on the OP that we have been experiencing strong job growth. In fact, the US has been shedding full time jobs for over a year now. And if you look at the job numbers for native born vs foreign born, the numbers are pretty eye opening.
The sky is not falling, but it strikes me as wrong to talk about strong job growth in the face of the actual numbers.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 5:02 pm to SloaneRanger
You are persistent. I'll give you that. You are too focused on part-time vs full-time. I don't see that migration as one out of necessity, but rather from companies maximizing profit by reducing benefits. Do you not agree that most people that want a job can get one? We all know that employers can't get enough lower waged workers as evidenced by the many signing bonuses that didn't exist previously in those pay ranges. The fact that many are not full time is not an indication of weakness in the economy. I can not speak broadly on all levels of jobs, but the higher paying career type industries I am familiar with are also looking for new employees. The occasional layoffs in the news do not scream economic problems to me either. Quite a few of those companies are managing current year profits and are usually hiring soon after a layoff. They also use "layoffs" as a way to eliminate marginally productive employees.
Job growth is not a weakness in our current economy, except to say we need a slightly higher unemployment rate as others have described.
Job growth is not a weakness in our current economy, except to say we need a slightly higher unemployment rate as others have described.
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