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I’m slowly warming up to the Penix/Cousins situation
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:46 pm
Lets say Cousins plays 2 years at a similar level to his Vikings career, as expected. And let’s also assume that 2 years comfortably learning an NFL system does in fact make Penix a better QB than throwing him into the fire year 1, and he is ready to go as a playoff contending starter in 2026. Let’s also assume a QB desperate team gives up a 2nd or 3rd rounder to acquire Cousins after 2025.
Break it down by cap number and season:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 40 mil; Penix: 5 mil
2026: Cousins: 25 mil in dead money; Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
That’s an average cap hit of 28 mil per season for 5 years of what should be very good QB play. Very reasonable. And it gets you a potential playoff team from Day 1 instead of playing through the hiccups of Penix developing his first few seasons (and potentially ruining his confidence). Winning teams attract good free agents, and Penix should be stepping into a solid situation in 2026. Add in a 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation for Cousins and this doesn’t look bad at all.
And let’s say hypothetically that Penix looks amazing in practice or fills in for an injured Cousins and plays masterfully in his rookie season and its clear he is ready to take over a year early in 2025. Now the cap numbers look like this:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 38 mil dead money, Penix: 5 mil
2026: Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
Now that average cap hit is 23 mil per year.
Bottom line, if Penix is great, they still have an affordable cap situation. If he is good but needs more time, they can still win now with an affordable cap hit. If Penix is a total bust, they are just like any other franchise that drafts a 1st round bust, except they have Cousins playing instead of the bust.
Break it down by cap number and season:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 40 mil; Penix: 5 mil
2026: Cousins: 25 mil in dead money; Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
That’s an average cap hit of 28 mil per season for 5 years of what should be very good QB play. Very reasonable. And it gets you a potential playoff team from Day 1 instead of playing through the hiccups of Penix developing his first few seasons (and potentially ruining his confidence). Winning teams attract good free agents, and Penix should be stepping into a solid situation in 2026. Add in a 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation for Cousins and this doesn’t look bad at all.
And let’s say hypothetically that Penix looks amazing in practice or fills in for an injured Cousins and plays masterfully in his rookie season and its clear he is ready to take over a year early in 2025. Now the cap numbers look like this:
2024: Cousins: 25 mil; Penix: 4 mil
2025: Cousins: 38 mil dead money, Penix: 5 mil
2026: Penix: 6 mil
2027: Penix: 7 mil
2028: Penix 5th year option: 26-30 mil estimated
Now that average cap hit is 23 mil per year.
Bottom line, if Penix is great, they still have an affordable cap situation. If he is good but needs more time, they can still win now with an affordable cap hit. If Penix is a total bust, they are just like any other franchise that drafts a 1st round bust, except they have Cousins playing instead of the bust.
26
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:50 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
let’s also assume
quote:
Let’s also assume
quote:
he is ready to go as a playoff contending starter in 2026.
Do you even see what you've written?
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:52 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
Favorite team: Alabama
Checks out
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:54 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
Do you even see what you've written?
Assumptions are what every NFL team makes decisions based upon. If anything, this situation is insurance for if assumptions don’t work out.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 3:59 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
Assumptions are what every NFL team makes decisions based upon. If anything, this situation is insurance for if assumptions don’t work out.
You're assuming the falcons, who just missed the playoffs in a bad division with a bad defense that just paid an old qb with a torn Achilles AND used their 1st rd pick on a qb will be a "playoff contender in 2026" with a qb that will be 26 with most likely little to no nfl game experience?
There's assumptions then there's the foolishness you posted.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:09 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
ssumptions are what every NFL team makes decisions based upon.
Assume you are given a combination of numbers and symbols that you must arrange and decipher. The numbers are 8, 3, 2, - , and LOL.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:13 pm to MillerLiteTime
Shouldn't have signed Cousins if Penix was that high on their wish list. Could have beefed up their suspect defense and signed Minshew
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:13 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
You're assuming the falcons, who just missed the playoffs in a bad division with a bad defense that just paid an old qb with a torn Achilles AND used their 1st rd pick on a qb will be a "playoff contender in 2026" with a qb that will be 26 with most likely little to no nfl game experience? There's assumptions then there's the foolishness you posted
Ok forget I ever said the word playoff. The logic still applies. This is a relatively cheap QB situation with a competent veteran and a succession plan in place. Im not trying to make this a Saints/ Falcons rivalry discussion.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:29 pm to MillerLiteTime
That’s a hell of a lot of assumptions and hypotheticals to burn $100m and an 8th overall pick on.
I’d say good luck but I hope it fails miserably
I’d say good luck but I hope it fails miserably
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:40 pm to AbitaFan08
quote:
That’s a hell of a lot of assumptions and hypotheticals to burn $100m and an 8th overall pick on.
Every 1st rounder is a hypothetical. Had they taken Dallas Turner, he is a hypothetical. But if Penix turns out to be a franchise player, he is obviously worth the #8 pick and Cousins has only cost 63 million in cap space over 2 years. And if Penix is a bust or isn’t ready yet, you get a top 10-15 QB in Cousins for a fair contract.
I was initially not a fan of this, and still don’t love it. But Im warming up to the logic after breaking down the actual cap numbers instead of the giant “4 year 180 mil” price tag.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 4:51 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
Every 1st rounder is a hypothetical
You have to hit on a top 10 pick, they should be year 1 starters, and if they aren't it's a quick way to get shite canned
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:13 pm to MillerLiteTime
You’re burning at minimum 1 year of a first round rookie QB contract, more likely 2. The most valuable thing in football, gone for a portion.
Not to mention, Penix will be 25-26 at the earliest when he takes the reins.
It’s a bad pick
Not to mention, Penix will be 25-26 at the earliest when he takes the reins.
It’s a bad pick
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:20 pm to whatiknowsofar
quote:
You have to hit on a top 10 pick, they should be year 1 starters, and if they aren't it's a quick way to get shite canned
So why are we already assuming Penix won’t be a hit any more than another player they could have picked? He doesn’t have to start year 1 to be a success at a position where QB’s play well into their mid to late 30’s. QB’s rarely have great rookie seasons and the Falcon’s strategically placed themselves in a position where they don’t need Penix to be brilliant year 1 and have affordable options for cutting or trading Cousins when Penix is ready.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:29 pm to DBG
quote:
You’re burning at minimum 1 year of a first round rookie QB contract, more likely 2. The most valuable thing in football, gone for a portion.
This is how I used to view the pick. But rookie QBs so rarely play well. So are you really burning a cheap year if that year doesn’t give you great production? Did the Jaguars benefit from having Trevor Lawrence play bad football his first year on a rookie deal? Or do they wish they had the luxury of letting him sit a year to learn their system and adjust to NFL coverages? It is the years 3-5 where the rookie deals seem to translate into Super Bowl contenders, not the first 2.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:32 pm to DBG
quote:
Not to mention, Penix will be 25-26 at the earliest when he takes the reins.
God forbid if a #8 pick turns into a franchise qb for the next 10-12 years. The age talk is so overstated and won’t matter until 10+ years from now.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:36 pm to MillerLiteTime
You are forgetting one important factor… Penix is like glass…..
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:39 pm to dukke v
quote:
are forgetting one important factor… Penix is like glass…
Which is why he was available at #8. He has been completely healthy the last 2 years with massive numbers. It’s a high upside/ceiling pick without having to trade away multiple first rounders to move up into a top 3 position.
This post was edited on 5/4/24 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 5/4/24 at 5:43 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
Which is why he was available at #8
He was available at 8 because he wasn’t projected to be a top 10 pick at all. Even for a team that didn’t just spend $100m on a QB 6 weeks earlier.
But honestly, keep talking yourself into this pick. It’s why I love the fact that the falcons are our biggest rivals. Even when we falter, you make us look good.
I’ll also give the Falcons this - the draft is often a lot of hype that leads to no drama. Atlanta added some drama this year which had ripple effects and made the draft more fun.
This post was edited on 5/4/24 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 5/4/24 at 6:42 pm to MillerLiteTime
Even if Penix turns out to be the next Mahomes, you already paid Kirk Cousins a shite ton of guaranteed money, so that voids the biggest advantage of signing an elite rookie QB.
Posted on 5/4/24 at 6:49 pm to MillerLiteTime
I'll upvote. Saints "fans" are envious of anything Atlanta does
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