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It will take Russia 10-20 years just to get back to where it was on 2/22/22 What does that even mean though? Numbers wise? Relative strength? They can be relatively stronger with less equipment if the stuff is better.

Russia has lost 3000 tanks since it invaded on 2/23/22. Most of those losses were its best tanks which were its modernized T72s, T80s, and T90s. It claims to be producing 200 new tanks per year. The new tanks it’s currently producing are the modernized version of the T72 and the T90s. It will take them 10-20 years to replace the modern tanks it has already lost and then those tanks will need upgrading by that time to keep up with western MBTs. So it means that it will take 10-20 years to get back to being as strong on paper as it was on paper on 2/22/22. As we have all seen, Russia was a paper tiger on 2/22/22 and its best technology on 2/22/22 proved vulnerable to weapons systems designed by the west in the 1980s. For example the much touted Arena active protection system was unable to protect Russian tanks from modern western ATGMs such as the Javelin but also 1980 western ATGMs such as the TOW missile or even Ukraine’s soviet era Fagot missiles and Stugna missiles.

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So you don't think they will at least try to make stuff that isn't inferior?

How? The S400 is the best they have. They are cut off from being able to buy computer chips to improve their performance. They are stuck buying computer chips from China whose air defense system are considered to be less capable than Russia’s because they are still producing licensed versions of 1980s Soviet SAM systems. Without a source of better computer chips Russia can’t improve its air defense capabilities. Also where is Russia going to get the money to develop or buy new technology?

This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 12:32 pm