re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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They’re attacking well prepared defensive works, without air support, through thick minefields, that the Russians can remine remotely,

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Not saying they aren't taking losses just that they haven't lost 71k in 4 months

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they don’t have the artillery the Russians have, and they don’t have the ammunition reserves the Russian have,

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The Russians are actually complaining about the same issue now (not enough ammo) but agree in principle that Ukraine is strapped for ammo

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most of which they can not service themselves, and their men, the new recruits, have undergone inadequate accelerated training courses, and if they were NATO led, they were taught by men who may have seen low intensity fighting, but who have with no practical experience fighting a conventional war. Based on this alone, casualty figures will be bad.

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Take out NATO and you would be talking about Russia

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they’re building a national war cemetery outside of the Kiev with 600,000 plots

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It's also been put on hold so they can examine the mass Graves on the site from the USSR so they aren't in a rush to build it

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They’re also preparing for another round of mobilization, one which will eliminate exceptions for minimally fit individuals

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Also Russia

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women are being pulled in for non combat roles starting in October, IIRC, to free up men for the battlefield.

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This is different from Russia but probably has more to do with population size

Point is Russia has literally most of the same issues you say are leading to mass casualties for the Ukrainians. I'm looking at this info and saying that if Ukraine were having these absolutely massive losses (71 KIA would mean roughly 280k casualties in 4 months) this front line would be moving just due to human waves overwhelming positions or Russia pushing through in the areas they are counterattacking. It's not happening for either side which is why I don't think we are seeing WWI level death on either side (and 71k in 4 months would be more than the allies in the entirety of the Normandy campaign in WWII). Those numbers just don't reflect the current stalemate we are seeing.

Again not saying losses aren't happening they just aren't to the level Russia claims it to be and they are suffering in the ballpark of 1:1 (id wager somewhere between .8:1 to 1:.8) on casualties.

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and they’re building a national war cemetery outside of the Kiev with 600,000 plots

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well who could possibly argue against this

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(71 KIA would mean roughly 280k casualties in 4 months)

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He actually says casualties

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Point is Russia has literally most of the same issues you say are leading to mass casualties for the Ukrainians.

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The Ukrainians are inflicting outsized casualties on the Russians, while attacking, against an enemy with a substantial advantage in artillery, and they're doing it without air support, while at the same time, dealing with an enemy who has a lot of rotory and fixed wing aircraft? And they're doing it all with men who have limited training?

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Training

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Take out NATO and you would be talking about Russia

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To a degree, the Russians hadn't fought a serious war since Chechnya, Georgia was short and one sided. And Russia rotated a lot of officers through Syria for training purposes. The advantage they have over us, is that they've been able to incorporate the lessons they've learned in Ukraine into their training, they haven't needed to compress the training for their recruits like the Ukrainians have, and that they never lost their focus on conventional war, the way we did over the last twenty years. One of the complaints you saw from the Ukrainian recruits about their NATO training was that it was all based on our experience in Afghanistan, and so it wasn't useful, and in some cases, it was potentially dangerous.

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Mass mobilization

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Also Russia

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They were very reluctant to mobilize their reservists last year, and they've repeatedly said that regulars are enough at this point. They could change their mind, but their strategy appears to be built around balancing the needs of the civilian economy, with the realities of the war. You can see that in how they fight, they rely heavily on firepower, and they're careful with their men, they avoid taking casualties. It shows up in policy too, the age band exemption for IT workers was extended in an effort to protect the industry, and they've tried to make life as normal as possible for ordinary people. Meanwhile Kiev is conscripting all military aged men, regardless of trade, and not just reservists, for the war effort.

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This is different from Russia but probably has more to do with population size

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It's certainly a compounding factor, and the Russians ground forces have grown a lot in total size of the last year.

Your last paragraph is laughable

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 September 2023

Elements of Russia's new 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) have highly likely deployed to Ukraine for the first time. The formation is likely focused on Luhansk Oblast in the north-east of the country.

As recently as August 2023, recruitment adverts for 25 CAA claimed it would only deploy to Ukraine from December 2023.

It is likely that units have been rushed into action early partly because Russia continues to grapple with an over-stretched force along the front and Ukraine continues its counter-offensive on three different axes. However, there is also a realistic possibility that Russia will attempt to use parts of 25 CAA to regenerate an uncommitted reserve force in the theatre to provide commanders with more operational flexibility.

Holy cow.

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Russian sources confirm that a submarine Kilo class "Rostov-on-Don" and a large landing ship "Minsk" have been damaged during the Sevastopol attack last night

B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" is an advanced attack submarine of the Russian Navy of the "Kilo" class.

The cost is $300 million, launched in 2014.

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There's also likely substantial damage to the dry rock, which is the Russian navy's only large maintenance facility for the Black Sea fleet.

Also, Russia can't replace those vessels, because Turkey keeps the Bosphorus closed to warships during conflict.

The balance of power in the Black Sea shifted a bit last. Ukrainian shipping has a better chance of success, and the citizens of Odessa are safer in their homes.

I suppose the attack on Sevastopol last night means imminent nuclear war, right?

Hmm. If they cost 300 million each, my math says that that would be $3.6 billion for a dozen.

Also, how many subs does Russia have in the Black Sea?

Between the 636 and 877 types, the Russians have 33 kilo-class submarines currently active in their fleet. They have nine more of the "advanced" 636.3 submarine type.

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they haven't needed to compress the training for their recruits like the Ukrainians have

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Yes they actually have. The mobiks were hitting the front lines within weeks last year.

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They were very reluctant to mobilize their reservists last year, and they've repeatedly said that regulars are enough at this point. They could change their mind, but their strategy appears to be built around balancing the needs of the civilian economy, with the realities of the war. You can see that in how they fight, they rely heavily on firepower, and they're careful with their men, they avoid taking casualties. It shows up in policy too, the age band exemption for IT workers was extended in an effort to protect the industry, and they've tried to make life as normal as possible for ordinary people. Meanwhile Kiev is conscripting all military aged men, regardless of trade, and not just reservists, for the war effort.

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The IT exception is so the industry doesn't collapse as most left during the first mobilization

Otherwise you are just turning a blind eye
Russia is trying to keep its army going by raising the age for military call-ups by 5 years, with some reservists able to be mobilized at 70

Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years

Not age, but also related
Quick citizenship for foreigners who fight for Russia in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin's new plan

ETA
And as for avoiding casualties
Russian Mercenaries’ Human Wave Tactics Push Back Ukrainian Troops In Soledar

So yes Russia is taking lots of casualties, on par with that of Ukraine but neither side has lost 71k in 4 months