re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 20. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations and inflicted significant losses on Russian manpower and equipment in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction and are consolidating in newly secured lines.

Russian servicemen and milbloggers revealed that the Russian military command orders Russian troops to carry out “ill-conceived and unsupported” counterattacks on Bakhmut’s southern flank to urgently regain lost ground.[6] Elements of Altai Krai’s 1st Battalion of the 1442nd Regiment (a mobilized unit) published a video appeal in which the soldiers claim that they abandoned their military equipment in the Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) area after receiving an order from the Russian military command to form an assault group and attack in the Bakhmut direction.[7] The servicemen noted that the Russian military command began deploying different types of personnel to the frontlines — including soldiers who are currently resting in the rear — without providing them with enough functional artillery shells. The servicemen noted that their shells do not explode when fired, which is likely a symptom of Russia's defense industrial base’s (DIB) efforts to speed up the production of shells and skipping quality assurance measures to do so.[8] The servicemen added that the unit is suffering from low morale after hearing reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed most of an unspecified Russian regiment and almost an entire retreating assault group in the area. The servicemen also claimed that they do not have prepared defensive positions and have to rely on small arms whereas the Ukrainians have artillery.

Russian forces conducted another round of Shahed drones strikes against Ukraine overnight on September 19-20. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 17 of 24 launched Iranian-made Shahed 136/131 drones in Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and that some of the drones struck an oil refinery in Poltava Oblast.[11] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reiterated that Russian forces have predictably increased the use of drones against Ukraine because Russia can obtain, manufacture, or assemble more drones domestically.

A Russian milblogger outlined Russian reconnaissance groups’ drone operator training and operation tactics in Ukraine. The milblogger claimed that most Russian reconnaissance groups have two types of drone operators — a Mavik drone operator who carries out reconnaissance operations and a first-person viewer (FPV) drone operator who conducts attacks

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that unspecified saboteurs damaged Russian strategic aircraft at Chkalovsky airfield near Moscow on September 18.[19] The GUR reported on September 20 that the saboteurs planted explosives on an An-148 and an Il-20 aircraft subordinate to the Russian 354th Special Purpose Aviation Regiment and an Mi-28N helicopter that Russian forces use to repel Ukrainian drones. The GUR stated that the explosions severely damaged the aircraft, including the Mi-28N's tail, and inflicted minor damage on a second An-148 nearby. Russian authorities have not yet reported an attack at the Chkalovsky airfield as of September 20.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on September 20 that he is in good health amidst continued speculations about his possible illness or death. Ramzan Kadyrov directly addressed speculations about his health in a social media post on September 20 claiming that he remains alive and in good health.[20] Kadyrov claimed to not understand why speculations of his health necessitate “fuss” and stated that publications that speculate on his health are untrustworthy. Kadyrov included a video of himself visiting his uncle Magomed Kadyrov in the hospital.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu met with Iranian Chief of the General Staff Mohammad Bagheri in Tehran, Iran to discuss Russian-Iranian military cooperation on September 19, a day after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi denied Iran’s provision of drones to Russia. Raisi denied that Iran provides drones to Russia during his speech to the United Nations on September 18.[21] Shoigu and Bagheri visited an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force facility where Shoigu saw Iranian-made drones, air defense systems, missiles; and tactical, medium, and long-range missile systems on September 20.[22] Shoigu stated that Russia and Iran plan to implement a range of unspecified activities in spite of Western sanctions, likely in order to evade the sanctions.[23]

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized Russian peacekeepers’ humanitarian actions in Nagorno-Karabakh as the Russian information space continues to observe that Russia is losing influence in Armenia. The Nagorno-Karabakh authorities accepted a Russian peacekeeper-mediated ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan on September 20 and reported that Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani officials will meet in Yevlakh, Azerbaijan on September 21 to discuss “reintegration” and “ensuring the rights and security of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.”[24] Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenian authorities were not involved in the ceasefire agreement and that Armenian forces were not present in Nagorno-Karabakh.[25] Putin emphasized on September 20 Russian peacekeepers’ roles in protecting civilians and claimed that Russia is in constant contact with Armenian, Azerbaijani and Nagorno-Karabakh authorities.[26]

The Russian MoD reported that Azerbaijani small arms fire killed Russian peacekeeping personnel driving in Nagorno-Karabakh and that Russian and Azerbaijani investigative authorities are working to clarify the incident

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Good article by Tartarigami on recent evidence of troops behind the Surovikin line.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1704726674435150186

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Based on a recently uploaded video by russians, it's evident that Ukrainian forces successfully penetrated the Surovikin Line and disembarked infantry beyond it. Satellite imagery substantiates these developments, hinting at Ukrainian vehicles crossing Surovikin's Line.

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A bit further south from the first image, the video captures a crossroad that was shelled by russians. In the background, you can see the burned area near the Surovikin Line, and the presence of black smoke in the image suggests that some object caught on fire.

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Utilizing geolocation data from the video, it's evident that our forces executed maneuvers effectively, driving back the enemy and exploiting the gap. They have advanced close to Verbove, overcoming AT trenches, minefields, and dragon's teeth. A notable milestone

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The heavily edited russian video leaves uncertainty about whether our troops established a bridgehead. It's an encouraging and positive sign, and there is no doubt that russians will try to downplay it. The next several days will show if the penetration becomes a breakthrough.

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Very long thread from ChrisO_wiki on movements within the Russia business sector that indicate they are readying for an increase in mobilisation.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1704761529235583230

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In another indication that a fresh wave of mobilisation may be coming, companies in Moscow are seeking to recruit an unprecedented number of specialists in managing military and mobilisation records – twice the peak number recorded during the last mobilisation

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
21 September 2023

Today, 21 September 2023, is the anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of the 2022 'partial mobilisation' which saw around 300,000 Russian reservists called up to serve in Ukraine.

On 15 September 2023, Russian State Duma Defence Committee Chair and former general Andrei Kartapolov reiterated that mobilised personnel were obliged to serve for the duration of the 'special military operation. In a new admission of the stark situation at the front, he also said that it was not possible for personnel to be rotated out of the operational zone during their service.

The absence of regular unit rotations out of combat duty is highly likely one of the most important factors contributing to low Russian morale, and the Russian Army's failure to conduct higher-level training since the invasion. The lack of such training is highly likely contributing to Russia's difficulties in conducting successful complex offensive operations.

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Yes, he does have a pair of big hairy ones,

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Jesus, dude. Z isn't going to frick you.

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Yes, he does have a pair of big hairy ones, and can apparently play the piano with his dong.

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You talk like you have experience. Zelensky been occupying your Tokyo Rose?

Zelensky made a huge mistake bitching about Poland. Not remotely sure what he thought the play was there.

Ukrainian troops seem to be making a real effort to push into Verbove. Geolocated here:




On another note, we are seeing the first pics of the fall of wheeled vehicles getting stuck in the mud. Tracked vehicles should still be fine for a while.

Budanov putting that work in.

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They gonna be able to turn back towards Tokmak from there?

Russia is losing a lot of their irreplaceable assets here lately. The saboteurs that blew the aircraft near Moscow took out one of only 6 or 7 surveillance and intelligence aircraft in the IL-20M. They have also have lost 1/4th of their Mi-28 attack helicopter fleet and half of their Ka-52 attack helos. Losing the Il-20M as well as the IL-22 intelligence plane that Wagner shot down in their failed coup attempt has vastly hampered Russia’s ability to keep an eye on Ukrainian airspace. These losses and the increase in drone and Storm Shadow hits in Crimea are directly correlated to these losses of air assets for Russia. They are going to slowly choke off Crimea with these attacks until it’s just untenable for Russia to remain there in any meaningful military presence.

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