re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Man this is not a political thread. It's a thread about the war and it's daily happenings. That's why it's on the OT. Take that shite to the pol board. I know that's your schtick according to your post history. Not the place for it

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Ukraine has a lot of reasons to fight.

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I think that spirit is failing, obviously there are a lot of genuine Ukrainian nationalists, and there were lot volunteers when the war started in 22.

The problem is that the supply of volunteers has dried up, and that’s both a demographic and morale issue. A sense of despair has set in. People don’t believe in victory, and people believe serving is a death sentence.

The people I’ve traded messages with think it’s over.

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At a certain point, the losses are too costly to hold onto a population that will fight from now until forever

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There was a clip a couple of months back of an ultra nationalist who complained that you couldn’t trust the civilians in Kharkov because they’d rat you out to the Russians. You can see the same thing in Odessa. The locals appear to be giving the Russian a lot of targeting information.

So in Lviv, yes, in other regions. I don’t think so.

Which services? Western services are how the oil/gas has been drilled, produced, transported and refined. Russia crews make 90 year old drilling hands look fast. Russia crews take 15-20 times as long just for a workover rig to rework an existing well.

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It’s been 48 hours. Has Kharkiv fallen yet?

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Yes, it totally fell. Russia took it all and Ukraine is over.

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That's not who wins wars of attrition. It's not about body counts. It's about industrial production, logistics, and political will.

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Actually it’s whichever nation whose people get fed up with it first.

It’s why the US failed in Vietnam, and later in the war on terror. The goal is to break the will of the opponent where that nations people start calling for it to end. Grow weary of it so to speak

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I think that spirit is failing, obviously there are a lot of genuine Ukrainian nationalists, and there were lot volunteers when the war started in 22.

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Being an old guy, I remember lots of family stories of the Great Depression. That's still living history within a family. Ukraine suffered Moscow's mass murders and imposed famine with millions of deaths. They won't forget or forgive.

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It’s been 48 hours. Has Kharkiv fallen yet?

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FWIW even the town he claimed he meant, Vovchans'k, hasn't fallen

Just curious, why do you feel it same situation, just reversed?

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended.

The US Helsinki Commission stated that the US should allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas amid an ongoing Russian offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, although US officials continue to express unwillingness to support such strikes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphatically downplayed the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks along the entire frontline, further indicating that he assesses that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces and that this will allow Russian forces to pursue creeping advances indefinitely

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to publicly prioritize the further mobilization of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) while also attempting to assuage possible domestic fears about the negative effects of increased Russian defense spending.

Putin specifically noted that the Russian DIB must increase the quality of Russian weapons.

Putin is likely concerned about the economic and diplomatic implications of decreased Russian arms exports.

The Kremlin confirmed the appointments of the newly formed Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) and other military district commanders on May 15.

Russian sources speculated that the May 13 detention of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov is only the beginning of a wider effort to root out corruption within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on May 15 that the US will provide a two billion dollar "defense enterprise fund" to Ukraine.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 14 to 15.

The Kremlin continues to add European officials to Russia's wanted list as part of Russia's efforts to assert the jurisdiction of Russian federal law over sovereign NATO member states.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Siversk, and west of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytyvyenko assessed on May 15 that Russian forces will have enough tanks and armored fighting vehicles for the next year and half of fighting in Ukraine at their current operational tempo.

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Have you ever even seen anything for sale made in Russia other than nesting dolls? They abandon their trucks on the roadsides regardless of how old, because not worth repairing. So they are going to convert manufacturing which makes pieces of shite to making more weapons? Lots of luck with Drunkle Igor being productive and producing quality

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To be fair Russian hardware has always been shite. Was the case in WW2 too, where German military hardware and quality far exceeded the Russians. Yet the Russians beat them by having more soldiers to spare and mass produced their tanks and vehicles quickly and cheaply. It didn’t matter if some broke down or were easily destroyed, they just overwhelmed with sheer numbers and enough were effective.

Ukraine has the high tech we give them. But they don’t have the soldiers and their numbers are getting thinner. The Russian people are under no threat because we won’t let ukraine use our weapons to launch an offensive into Russia so you won’t see much anti war sentiment there. At this point the Russians have the advantage by slowly draining Ukraine of their forces and will to fight. Lesser tech does not matter, they can expend their Soviet stuff at will when there’s no threat of attack on Russian soil. Now even if let Ukraine use weapons to attack Russia, it may be too late. Should have allowed it a year ago when their military was stronger and might could have pushed back harder.

The reality at this point is this can drag on and it will just delay the inevitable and cost more lives and resources, or the West will have to actually put boots on the ground if there is to be victory. Ukraine cannot “win” this on their own with only our tech and money. They just don’t have the well trained soldiers in large enough numbers to utilize it to the fullest