Russia has claimed that it produced around 200 new tanks last year but western sources say that number is exaggerated. Russia lost over 3000 visually confirmed tanks. 3000/200 = 15 years. You said in an earlier post that you thought commenting on the far future was not something you wanted to do. However, I would say that in 15-20 years after the end of the conflict Russia will still be weaker than it was on 2/22/22 and it’s strength on 2/22/22 was much less than everyone thought when it could not even defeat Ukraine at its strongest.

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Posted by VolSquatch

First Coast

Member since Sep 2023

2373 posts

Posted on 5/14/24 at 10:14 am to WeeWee

quote:
You said in an earlier post that you thought commenting on the far future was not something you wanted to do.

I said predicting. I am perfectly fine talking about and debating potential outcomes down the road.

quote:
However, I would say that in 15-20 years after the end of the conflict Russia will still be weaker than it was on 2/22/22 and it’s strength on 2/22/22 was much less than everyone thought when it could not even defeat Ukraine at its strongest.

Theres a lot of debate and nuance to be had here for sure. They claimed to produce like 2100 tanks last year, but we estimate that their capacity is like 200. So lets say they up their capacity by a bit (could be during the Ukraine war or after, doesn't really matter since we are projecting long term here) and they get to 250ish. Pumping out that many per year for a few decades will get to you a big number.

Those will also be new equipment, not 50 year old tanks retrofitted. So its hard to judge when or if they will be stronger or weaker than they were on 2/22/22 because the equipment and tech will be different then.

Do drones make tanks obsolete by then? How is their drone production? Lot of moving parts and you can really get lost in the weeds. I appreciate you having an actual discussion though.