re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Theres a lot of debate and nuance to be had here for sure. They claimed to produce like 2100 tanks last year, but we estimate that their capacity is like 200.

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No. They claimed 2100 or so tanks delivered to the RAFs in 2023. The Russians claim 200 new tanks produced. Western experts believe the number of new tanks is significantly less than 200.

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So lets say they up their capacity by a bit (could be during the Ukraine war or after, doesn't really matter since we are projecting long term here) and they get to 250ish. Pumping out that many per year for a few decades will get to you a big number. Those will also be new equipment, not 50 year old tanks retrofitted. So its hard to judge when or if they will be stronger or weaker than they were on 2/22/22 because the equipment and tech will be different then.

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You’re assuming that the west doesn’t do anything in that time. Poland is upgrading its Armed Forces, Germany and France are designing the next generation of MBTs which will be in service in 20 years, the UK is upgrading its Challenger2s to Challenger3s multiple former Warsaw Pact countries that are now in NATO are replacing their old soviet tanks with MA1A2s and Leopard2s. The M1A2, K2 Black Panther, Challenger2 and Leopard2 are already superior to anything that Russia has. It will take Russia 10-20 years just to get back to where it was on 2/22/22 which was still inferior to NATO. That is just tanks. Russia’s state of the art S400 system has proven to be ineffective against western cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow and Scalp which were designed in the 1980s and are being withdrawn from frontline service with NATO militaries. Russia’s Migs and SUs are inferior to 4th generation western jets and Russia has produced a grand total of 10 operational 5th generation fighters in the last 20 years. Western drones are also vastly superior to Russian and Iranian drones.

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Do drones make tanks obsolete by then?

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Unlikely. Israel has not suffered the tank losses that Russia and Ukraine have sustained because their Trophy APS is better than anything Russia or Ukraine has. It has actually been able to detect and defend against drones as well as rpgs fired from a higher elevation which presents the same threat as a drone. Not to mention that drones would not be such a threat in Ukraine if either side could afford to take down the cell system. Without a functioning 4G or better cell network or satellite communications network how can drone operators guide the drones to attack?