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re: US CPI comes in "hotter than expected"
Posted on 5/14/24 at 5:26 pm to molsusports
Posted on 5/14/24 at 5:26 pm to molsusports
quote:
they exclude food, housing, energy, and taxes it could be a low number.
NVM I think it was coffee as others mentioned
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 5:28 pm
0
Posted on 5/14/24 at 5:46 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Can you link the revisions?
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/05/14/ppi-report-wholesale-prices-rose-0point5percent-in-april-more-than-expected.html
quote:
Tuesday. However, the March reading was revised from an initially reported 0.2% gain to a decline of 0.1%.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 9:50 pm to molsusports
quote:
That accounting seems lacking (taxes for example).
What kind of taxes should be included in CPI in your opinion?
Posted on 5/15/24 at 7:43 am to Bard
Swing and a miss. 
Posted on 5/15/24 at 7:50 am to SDVTiger
As predicted 
Posted on 5/15/24 at 7:57 am to slackster
They are going to have a hard time getting to 2% without a decent increase in unemployment.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 8:04 am to slackster
quote:
Swing and a miss.
I figured if I posted this, it would jinx the reported number. You're welcome.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 8:37 am to Bard
I didn't follow CPI reports until recently but before COVID were CPI reports something like 0.1% MoM? I'm trying to get a feel what the average inflation numbers were before the world went to shite
Posted on 5/15/24 at 8:50 am to JohnnyKilroy
Better question is probably what type of taxes should not. If the purpose of the report is to estimate cost of living you have to estimate the cost of living.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 8:57 am to Civildawg
Good question.
The goal of the Fed is always to keep it around 2% YoY, but less is always welcomed. This means MoM will usually bounce a tenth or three MoM, but it generally had been consistently lower changes each month prior to COVID.
LINK
Here's the YoY for a little wider picture:
The goal of the Fed is always to keep it around 2% YoY, but less is always welcomed. This means MoM will usually bounce a tenth or three MoM, but it generally had been consistently lower changes each month prior to COVID.
LINK
Here's the YoY for a little wider picture:
Posted on 5/15/24 at 8:58 am to fallguy_1978
We badly need the shelter component to come down, which isn't a quick fix. Fuel and shelter accounted for >70% of the increase.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:36 am to BottomlandBrew
And car insurance. Fed Policy cant control those prices. Unemployment is the only way for cuts but thats trending in that direction
Posted on 5/15/24 at 9:38 am to Bard
quote:
"hotter than expected"
By whom? The average person can tell you this shite is flaming.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 10:24 am to molsusports
quote:
Better question is probably what type of taxes should not. If the purpose of the report is to estimate cost of living you have to estimate the cost of living.
That’s not the purpose of the report. And taxes go “up” proportionately with prices of goods. The month to month or year to year percentage changes would be the exact same whether you added taxes or not.
This post was edited on 5/15/24 at 10:26 am
Posted on 5/15/24 at 11:37 am to JohnnyKilroy
Obviously disagree
It is is represented as a measurement of the cost of living. Which completely falls apart when it excludes large percentages of unavoidable consumer costs
It is is represented as a measurement of the cost of living. Which completely falls apart when it excludes large percentages of unavoidable consumer costs
Posted on 5/15/24 at 11:41 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Fed Policy cant control those prices
Fed policy is also likely to be ineffective as long as both the executive and legislative branches continue their present course.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 11:41 am to molsusports
But how are you to effectively distill that to a single number when sales tax rates vary wildly on a state, county and municipal level.
The tax rate doesn’t change as prices move, so it’s really not very useful to include them in a measurement that is largely focused on MoM and YoY deltas.
The tax rate doesn’t change as prices move, so it’s really not very useful to include them in a measurement that is largely focused on MoM and YoY deltas.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 11:51 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
But how are you to effectively distill that to a single number when sales tax rates vary wildly on a state, county and municipal level
That's a different point. You are noting that data like this are likely to be inaccurate (like the basket of goods which changes)
The other bigger problem is the data are inconvenient.
quote:
The tax rate doesn’t change as prices move, so it’s really not very useful to include them in a measurement that is largely focused on MoM and YoY deltas
Taxes do change and sometimes significantly from year to year (this year the difference in federal refund hit spring auto sales for example). They have a huge cumulative effect on consumer spending and the economy.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 12:13 pm to molsusports
quote:
They have a huge cumulative effect on consumer spending and the economy.
True, but I feel like the number that gets spat out would be of very limited value if you are trying to add in some sort of average effective tax rate (including income, property and sales taxes, less deductions and credits) for 350 million people.
If the national average for the price of milk is X, you can probably expect to pay roughly X when you buy milk. Might not be the exact number, but probably pretty close.
If you change it to say that milk is X plus a blanket effective tax rate, your number will be not really reflective of what someone pays at the register when buying milk.
Posted on 5/15/24 at 6:56 pm to molsusports
quote:
Fed policy is also likely to be ineffective as long as both the executive and legislative branches continue their present course.
Add the consumer into that mix as well. Consumers are still deeply in debt and constantly creating more while draining their savings, all while real wages are falling behind.
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