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Fresh off the birth of his son Scottie shoots an opening rd 67
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:52 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 8:52 pm
And his odds to win the tournament go down 
Went from +450 to +500 on my book. That’s insane. I wish I could look it up. I’d venture to say that could possibly be a first
Went from +450 to +500 on my book. That’s insane. I wish I could look it up. I’d venture to say that could possibly be a first
4
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:18 pm to lsupride87
He’s 5 back on a course that’s going to yield 20 under or better to win. Of course his odds went up
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:24 pm to MC5601
Yes I understand he is 5 back
But shooting 67 and being 5 back is unbelievably rare, which makes shorting 67 and having your odds to win lessen unbelievably rare. It’s also unbelievable rare because you have to have extremely great odds to start
For example, Morikowa also shot 67 today and is 5 back. However, His odds got more than twice as good, went from +3300 to +1400
Scottie losing odds while shooting 67 is a unicorn occurrence.
But shooting 67 and being 5 back is unbelievably rare, which makes shorting 67 and having your odds to win lessen unbelievably rare. It’s also unbelievable rare because you have to have extremely great odds to start
For example, Morikowa also shot 67 today and is 5 back. However, His odds got more than twice as good, went from +3300 to +1400
Scottie losing odds while shooting 67 is a unicorn occurrence.
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:33 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Scottie losing odds while shooting 67 is a unicorn occurrence
WUT??? He was the favorite and now has 11 guys in front of him and tied with another 7 guys 25% through the event. What do you think the odds are supposed to do????
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:43 pm to BigApple
quote:Holy shite
WUT??? He was the favorite and now has 11 guys in front of him and tied with another 7 guys 25% through the event. What do you think the odds are supposed to do????
I understand fully how odds work and why his went down
It’s still an unbelievably rare occurrence to shoot an opening round 67 and have your odds to win lowered. That’s it.
To start you have to be a huge favorite. Secondly, other players have to shoot stupid low. Thirdly, the player that shoots stupid low has to be a big enough name to realistically give confidence they can hold on
If venture to say 99% of the time you shoot a round 1 67 your odds get better. Agreed?
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 9:57 pm to lsupride87
Not if your the favorite and 18 guys are ahead of you
ETA : he shot 4 under today. At last years us open 23 guys were 4 under or better after round one. The same thing would have happened if the favorite only shot 4 under in the 1st round. So it’s probably not that rare considering it just happened last year
ETA : he shot 4 under today. At last years us open 23 guys were 4 under or better after round one. The same thing would have happened if the favorite only shot 4 under in the 1st round. So it’s probably not that rare considering it just happened last year
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 10:14 pm to BigApple
quote:What? 6 guys were -4 or better
At last years us open 23 guys were 4 under or better after round one
Posted on 5/16/24 at 10:33 pm to BigApple
quote:
At last years us open 23 guys were 4 under or better after round one
This isn’t even close to being correct
Posted on 5/16/24 at 10:45 pm to hehateme2285
Sorry. Thought it was a par 72. Still had 14 guys at 67 or better. Point still stands that if the favorite at the us open last year shot 67 his odds would have gone down.
It’s ridiculous to look at a score and then equate that to odds. It’s always how a player stands in relation to other players
It’s ridiculous to look at a score and then equate that to odds. It’s always how a player stands in relation to other players
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 10:46 pm to lsupride87
quote:
lsupride87
I understand what you mean. Insane that he’s starting these tournaments at +450ish. Speaks to how dominant he’s been.
Posted on 5/16/24 at 10:57 pm to BigApple
quote:Scottie was the favorite at the us open last year. He did in fact shoot a 67
Sorry. Thought it was a par 72. Still had 14 guys at 67 or better. Point still stands that if the favorite at the us open last year shot 67 his odds would have gone down.
His odds got better after doing so…..Went from +700 to -+550 on the book
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 10:58 pm
Posted on 5/16/24 at 11:18 pm to lsupride87
That’s not what I found online. I’m sure all books are different but I’m seeing +700 going into event and + 750 after round 1.
Screw it, I don’t care. He’s not winning this week
Screw it, I don’t care. He’s not winning this week
This post was edited on 5/16/24 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:16 am to BigApple
Tough to win if your in jail
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:02 am to lsupride87
quote:
And his odds to win the tournament go down
What are his odds now?
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:04 am to JimTiger72
Odds are still +500
I was thinking about taming him if I could have gotten a little “go to jail” juice
I was thinking about taming him if I could have gotten a little “go to jail” juice
Posted on 5/17/24 at 10:23 am to lsupride87
Wild that he’s still 2nd best odds with his position & the situation. Schauffele at +240 & Morikawa at +1200.
Morikawa seems like best value
Morikawa seems like best value
Posted on 5/17/24 at 12:59 pm to JimTiger72
Scottie at -8 +260
Xander at -9 +300
Morikawa at -9 +550
ETA: Morikawa at -10 +360
Xander at -9 +300
Morikawa at -9 +550
ETA: Morikawa at -10 +360
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:13 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Fresh off the birth of his son Scottie shoots an opening rd 67
Then gets arrested.
Too soon?
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:10 pm to lsupride87
Scottie is +330 now
Posted on 5/18/24 at 1:33 pm to lsupride87
+1400 live for those that think he can still win
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