re: Looks like win or lose LSU will be the 11 seed in the SEC tournament

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It’s foolish to count on 11 SEC teams getting in and it will be a really tough argument to try and out LSU in above 3 teams that beat them in a series. Need to have a big week in Hoover unfortunately

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It’s really not if you look at who the alternatives are from other conferences. Xavier fell out of one of the spots D1Baseball had them in. Georgia Tech got swept and fell to #50 RPI and 14-16 in conference. They’re out. Utah lost twice this weekend to a bad USC and fell to #76 in the RPI. I don’t see them getting in. Cincinnati lost 2 of 3 and fell to #57, but they are still 17-13 in conference. They may still be in the picture but I wouldn’t assume they are in over SEC teams with much better RPIs. That’s 3-4 spots opened up that weren’t there before.

Beyond that currently in D1’s field, you have TCU and UCF with losing records in the Big 12 and worse RPIs than LSU and Florida. Coastal Carolina is behind in RPI and only 15-14 in the Sun Belt. KSU is behind and 15-14 in the Big 12. UNCW and Troy have good conference records but similar overall records to LSU and RPIs of only #48 and #53. That’s another 6 teams that have questionable credentials relative to LSU and LSU doesn’t even have to displace any of them to earn a spot.

So who’s left to take the other 3-4 spots? D1’s first 4 out were Maryland, James Madison, Virginia Tech, and Ole Miss. Maryland and Ole Miss got swept (hopefully) and Virginia Tech lost their first two so far to fall to 14-15 in conference and #61 in the RPI. James Madison may earn a spot, but they are facing Troy this weekend. If they sneak in, it’s likely at the expense of Troy.

No one other than Florida and Ole Miss is ahead of LSU and not in D1’s projected field. The only other contenders would be Louisville at #52 and 32-22 overall, but 16-14 in the ACC, St. John’s at #56, 34-15-1, 14-6 in the Big East, and Cal at #62, 33-18, 16-13 in the P12. I like LSU’s chances relative to those teams, though they may want another P12 team in the field. That still leaves 2-3 spots, at least, for LSU and Florida.

The biggest threat might be bid thieves.
That would come from Indiana St, UCI, or San Diego not winning their conference auto bids. Perhaps someone not in the field could sneak in from the Big 10 or American. I still like LSU ahead of several of the 10 teams I listed above, even if that happens.