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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:34 pm to
Posted by Dock Holiday
Member since Sep 2015
1641 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

Gotta say I don't understand this PR at all.



Thinking the exact same thing. It's screams "look at me" "I'm over here".

quote:

My guess? Albemarle and Exxon are in a huge bidding war and Standard is just trying to drive that price on up. Yeh....that's gotta be it. Definitely what this PR means.


Has not considered that angle, but could very well be the primary reason.

Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3114 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

My guess? Albemarle and Exxon are in a huge bidding war and Standard is just trying to drive that price on up. Yeh....that's gotta be it. Definitely what this PR means.


Posted by ThermoDynamicTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
1289 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 2:35 pm to
Standard Oil....Standard Lithium....Esso....Esel
This post was edited on 11/14/23 at 2:36 pm
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7018 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 3:38 pm to
Standard Lithium.....Murphy Oil
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19879 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:22 am to
Lanxess stock was down in the low 20's days ago so I wonder how that might affect the strength of will for their deal going forward.

Lithium prices have done a big dip too. Still, there is something to say for not depending on China and other foreign sources for lithium and hopefully DLE will be more than competitive.

Having so many car manufacturers trying to jump into the EV market at the same time and not finding so many interested buyers is another head wind.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 10:57 am to
Yeah that's about as unneeded (surface-wise) and unnatural a PR as I've read. I just think that if you're confident in your circumstances it's too soon to accept an acquisition offer. Any offer made at this point would have to heavily discount the value of the (pre-DFS) SWA project and (pre-PFS) East Texas work since they still need to be de-risked by those studies.

Mintak used to say, over and over, that Standard is not a mining company but a technology company. However, in the DWW interview around May he was asked in a similar vein,

"How would you define your work at Standard Lithium? Are you an integrator of these technologies? Are you one part of the technology which enhances with these other technologies?"

Mintak "The project drives the process. So, we're a project developer and, hopefully, commercial operator soon. But developing a project holistically, so we're not a sole technology developer."

I just have a hard time conceiving that a project developer would opt to be bought before developing its two biggest projects all the way. Unless Phase 1A's success is considered by a buyer to be sufficient de-risking for the other two projects.
Then again, Phase 1's success isn't expected to be proven until 2026 so even if a buyer would be satisfied with its validation of the other two projects it wouldn't be anytime soon.

My thoughts on an acquisition have changed if the East Texas goal of 100,000 tpa from the November Management Presentation is to be taken seriously. I mean, 100,000 tpa is the high-end estimate of Exxon's announced plant. Can you sell that this soon?
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19879 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 11:30 am to
To me after all of these words, the only thing I need to see is the demo plant producing a steady stream of lithium and selling it. Fill out whatever forms and royalty agreements needed and get to it. Then all of the doubts will vanish from all corners. If the stock then shoots up to $15 a share, then dilution can help the financing a lot better than a high interest loan and the entire project becomes more than a science experiment to all comers.

With lithium prices down, it is probably a good time to make royalty agreements.
This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 11:31 am
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 11:57 am to
I'll be ecstatic once the demo product starts getting sold.

Reminder that the AOGC's order issued in September extends the demo plant's operation until the December 5 hearing, when they will also revisit the royalty discussion. Royalty decision timing is worded this way,

"Furthermore, the Commission shall hear Applicant’s request for determining
the methodology for royalty on lithium chloride and/or lithium carbonate (or other final product)
as required by Ark. Code Ann. § 15-76-315(c) in December in North Little Rock. This shall be
heard either at the regularly scheduled hearing on December 5, 2023, or at a special hearing if
scheduled by the Director
"

so some possible discretion from the Director.

Hopefully Lanxess will have formalized their decision by then since they will, at the very least, have dibs on the demo product offtake. Thanks again to FeMike for pointing this out.

So Lanxess decision -> royalty decision -> sell demo product for our confidence -> profit?
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19879 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

So Lanxess decision -> royalty decision -> sell demo product for our confidence -> profit?



As noted, any real production from the demo plant will be a statement ending the science project image. Get it done and this won't look like another Mintak scam like the shorters claim it is.

SLI has the most proven experience in DLE in the world. That ought to be worth a lot.

An old friend bailed today at a considerable loss not because he doesn't believe, but because he lost patience.

This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 1:55 pm
Posted by Beerinthepocket
Dallas
Member since May 2011
856 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 2:27 pm to
I’d bet your friend will regret that no later than Q1 2024. Schwab paying 15% on my shares is enough to buy my patience.
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7018 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

I’d bet your friend will regret that no later than Q1 2024

isnt that a sign of very low confidence in SLI?
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
27385 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 5:37 pm to
quote:

An old friend bailed today at a considerable loss not because he doesn't believe, but because he lost patience.


Unfortunate.
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
105 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 6:14 pm to
LINK
This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 6:36 pm
Posted by KCRoyalBlue
Member since Nov 2020
990 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 8:13 pm to
Any chance that other drilling in this general region could impact SLI getting the brine water it needs?
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:29 pm to
Thanks for sharing.

Biden-Harris Administration Announces $3.5 Billion to Strengthen Domestic Battery Manufacturing

"Concept papers, which are required, are due January 9, 2024. Full applications are due March 19, 2024."

FeMike, do you think "concept papers" mentioned here are the same as the "white paper" that IR told you they already submitted? For $70M I think
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
18154 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:00 am to
Just the market then? Dipped over 5% this morning back down to around 2.50. Time to wet my whistle again
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
91064 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:01 am to
quote:

old friend bailed today at a considerable loss not because he doesn't believe, but because he lost patience


Not having patience isn’t good for trading stocks
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
18154 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 9:31 am to
quote:

I’d bet your friend will regret that no later than Q1 2024. Schwab paying 15% on my shares is enough to buy my patience.

absolutely! I finally got my DCA below $3 on 20k+ shares. I’m excited for the dip that got me back there. Haven’t had a DCA that low since I first started buying 2-3 years ago.
Posted by boomtapp
Houston, Tejas
Member since Nov 2007
671 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 11:16 am to
Am I a sucker? We'll see. Just bought more.
Posted by Breesus
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
67023 posts
Posted on 11/16/23 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

I finally got my DCA below $3 on 20k+ shares


You have over $60,000 sitting in SLI?
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