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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 12/5/23 at 10:23 am to
Posted by gautamj
Member since Sep 2023
57 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 10:23 am to
While the drop is hurting us bad, the problem is the broad lithium sector.
ALB is down 4%, Liontown down 8%, LAC down 1-2%
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19884 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 11:16 am to
Yeah, there are some general lithium head winds going on. EV's are piling up at dealerships as car companies jump with both feet into a soft market in part due to government pressure.

Then too EV's themselves are having their teething pains with too many being totaled by insurance because the battery is damaged and too expensive to replace. This causes insurance rates to go up.

EV resale value is not so good either.

Gov put a lot of money into chargers, but haven't installed any.

Then too current gov is pushing EV's and thus electric demand, but also cutting power generation at coal fired plants. No new power plants are being pushed. That's not going to work.

This post was edited on 12/5/23 at 11:33 am
Posted by ThermoDynamicTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
1289 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 11:38 am to
I would think that lithium would be very beneficial as power storage during periods where supply is interrupted. Big power banks would need a lot of lithium for that application.
Posted by ApexHunterNetcode
Member since Aug 2023
280 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 11:46 am to
quote:

Citi or a Goldman-Sachs only comes in as either a mezzanine prior to IPO (which SLI has already done obviously) or if they believe they can broker a strategic investor into the deal for a public or private company.

The art for us is in the terms of whatever deal they broker. They make money on the transaction, not the actual deal. Should be interesting.


Could be leading debt syndication too. It's certainly transaction related - either equity, debt or some type of mezzanine/preferred equity arrangement.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19884 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 12:30 pm to
1.975 now. I think my toes can touch the bottom.
This post was edited on 12/6/23 at 4:09 pm
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4596 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 1:08 pm to
quote:

EV's are piling up at dealerships


Meh.. this is kinda a misleading headline being pushed by the media. Teslas are selling like hot cakes right now. A lot of car dealerships are filling back up as it is anyway bc of supply chain issues finally resolving themselves, demand is softening, higher interest rates. There’s brand new 2022 jeeps all over the lot.
Posted by gautamj
Member since Sep 2023
57 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 2:27 pm to
As depressing as the current price is, anyone here willing to share the price at which you'll sell your SLI holdings?

Personally, I'd like to hold this until it runs to around 15 CAD, but mostly I'll crack and take a small profit by selling at 9 CAD.. I haven't seen my portfolio to be green since Oct 2021.
This post was edited on 12/5/23 at 2:28 pm
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
22936 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 4:01 pm to
Is this still a good buy at sub $2?
Posted by CecilShortsHisPants
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
2911 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 4:26 pm to
If you want to lose money, its an excellent opportunity
Posted by GeauxldMember
Member since Nov 2003
4406 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

anyone here willing to share the price at which you'll sell your SLI holdings?


$0.94/share, it’s looking like…
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
105 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 5:41 pm to
All Lithium stocks at 52 week lows! Nothing has changed with Standard Lithium!
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 6:43 pm to
I asked AI to help me make a DCFA model for projects Phase 1A and SWA. I came out with value of .76/share for Phase 1A and 12.44/share for SWA, totaling 13.20/share. If we get a PFS for East Texas I will include it.

I will throw this all away if I totally lose trust in the company, but until then I won't sell until it breaks $13.20.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
27385 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 7:02 pm to
quote:

I asked AI to help me make a DCFA model for projects Phase 1A and SWA. I came out with value of .76/share for Phase 1A and 12.44/share for SWA, totaling 13.20/share. If we get a PFS for East Texas I will include it.

I will throw this all away if I totally lose trust in the company, but until then I won't sell until it breaks $13.20.


That at current lithium prices I suppose?
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19648 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 7:11 pm to
Now you are speaking my language, if we get to $8 I will be thanking my lucky stars. I wouldn't be lying if I said my confidence is waning.
This post was edited on 12/5/23 at 7:12 pm
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 7:15 pm to
Sorry, it's using our most current reports- DFS for Phase 1A and PFS for SWA. So $30k/ton base case selling prices
This post was edited on 12/5/23 at 7:17 pm
Posted by CarbonAce
Member since Apr 2021
105 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 8:08 pm to
Was the royalty hearing today?
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 12/5/23 at 9:04 pm to
AOGC's agenda says it was. Not expecting the order for 3 weeks like last time, but maybe the local papers will leak something before then?



Also, I tend to forget this so I thought I'd share a reminder here... SLI has specifically asked in their royalty proposal that this royalty decision only apply to Lanxess projects and not be used as precedent for future projects, so we may have to do this dance again.



This is old but I'm just seeing it. Probably what's taking the royalty decision so long is that Lanxess (SLI) is proposing to pay $57.59/acre per year for lithium royalties. I can't imagine these two ideas being at peace in the mind of Arkansans:
1. This lithium rush is gonna be bigger than the oil booms was!
2. We'll give you $57.59/acre/year for your lithium brine.
Posted by ApexHunterNetcode
Member since Aug 2023
280 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 12:03 pm to
That's close to a 1.5% royalty rate. I'm not involved in the O&G industry so can't speak to comparability. If I have time later today I'll look up current Arkansas rates for other resources.
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
323 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 12:48 pm to
A land man in Arkansas recently told me that this is about the same as bromine royalties. And it may be fair, it just wouldn’t surprise me if landowners are holding up the decision by trying to push for more.
Posted by gautamj
Member since Sep 2023
57 posts
Posted on 12/6/23 at 1:59 pm to
Anyone here have access to attend either of the two investor conferences? Would be interesting to see if the presentations reflect Lanxess' decision to opt out.
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