re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If y’all would ignore the idiots they will go away

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I'm not sure which is gayer:

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updooting

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It’s pretty obvious

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I read in the WSJ that the Ukrainians still have 80% of the air force intact. And the balance of air power is shifting. It seems the reports from March of the total destruction of the Uke Air Force were exaggerated.

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What baffles me is Russia's inability to establish air superiority, they should have been able to do it easily. The lack of airpower being used effectively in the conflict is what caused the regression to static trench warfare.

The "why haven't we used more air power specifically strategic bombers" has come up several times on Russian state TV. The apologists say it is because they unlike the Americans don't want to destroy all the civilian infrastructure and it is a special military operation which at its core is humanitarian. This is bullshite obviously because why would their Frogfoots and Havocs be "lofting" unguided rockets on a regular basis if they were concerned about pinpointing only military targets. It is because they are skeert now humanitarian.

I imagine both sides are holding back their air power until such time as they control the battlefield well enough to safely bring them in. This is the opposite of the clearly more capable US military which sends the air power in first to take over the battlefield and protect the ground forces.

Their pilots dont do nearly the training the West does. Only 8 hours every few months supposedly.

And their "next gen" fighters like the SU-47 are not built in the quantities needed to be effective. Ditto for parts/pilots. They're mainly used a air show demo units. That's why they haven't/cant be used.

One more failure for Putin. His air force has failed spectacularly even more than the army

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This is the opposite of the clearly more capable US military which sends the air power in first to take over the battlefield and protect the ground forces.

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To be fair, I don't recall the US doing that against anyone with capable defenses.

Regardless, unless Russia props up the reputation of its Air Force soon, that country could disintegrate even faster than I thought.

Some truth slipping into Russian state TV?

YT

For all of Russia's misunderestimating Ukraine, I think they had a very good grasp of its air defenses. They knew they couldn't achieve air superiority, much less air supremacy, without unacceptable losses. So they didn't try very hard, leaving the Russian ground forces to fend for themselves.

It raises the question about American air power if we ever have to fight an all out war with China. Would we really be willing to lose dozens of F22s and F35s? In WWI, the battleship was supposed to be the decisive weapon, but they were so hideously expensive, both sides were reluctant to put them in harm's way. Except for Jutland, they mostly stayed in port.

ISW Update Sept 19

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Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.

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Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.

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Recent Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are further reducing the already poor morale among Russian units that had been considered elite before February 24.

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The intercepted letters indicate pervasive morale issues among Russia’s most elite units and the degradation of Russia’s conventional capabilities against NATO.

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Key Takeaways

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which are not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.

Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are degrading morale among Russian units that were regarded as elite prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are likely continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the Oskil River and along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 19: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and in northern Kherson Oblast near Olhine.
The size of volunteer units Russia can generate is likely decreasing.

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Some truth slipping into Russian state TV?

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That’s nice and all but they still insist that Russia, as the invading and conquering force, is the “liberator” and that it has an inherent right to invade and seize the territory of Ukraine. Until the Russians face the truth of their role in the conflict, they will never have to recon with anything except occasional disappointment when their invasion falters.