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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/14/24 at 2:34 am to WeeWee
Posted on 5/14/24 at 2:34 am to WeeWee
quote:
Maybe that is because moving forces to reinforce Kharkiv would weaken the rest of the front.
I assume that’s the idea. Especially if they go back into Sumy.
quote:
Kharkiv is 35 km from the front and Russian forces are getting caught up in the prepared defenses that the Ukrainians have fallen back to
There don’t appear to be any major defensive works in the north
2
Posted on 5/14/24 at 4:36 am to RuLSU
quote:
Based on this message, and others posted recently... we can expect Kharkiv to fall imminently, right?
No
Posted on 5/14/24 at 4:40 am to WeeWee
The Ukrainians are having trouble filling the gaps in the lines in the Donbas, lengthening the front even further is a problem for them. As they’ve said, they can’t defend in both the East and the North simultaneously.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 4:50 am to Lima Whiskey
Blinken is in Kyiv today. Hopefully, he's establishing a deal that allows Ukrainians in Vovchansk to shoot at their attackers just over the border.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 6:13 am to GOP_Tiger
RT is reporting that in his meeting Z, he claimed the new weapons will be a game changer
Posted on 5/14/24 at 6:30 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
There don’t appear to be any major defensive works in the north
Then why has it taken the great Russian army.... (checks notes) 27 months to exploit this total lack of defenses?
Would suck to waste hundreds of thousands of lives when you could have just gone around..
Posted on 5/14/24 at 6:35 am to No Colors
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 May 2024
Russia's newly-formed Northern Grouping of Forces have attacked into Ukraine's Kharkiv region and taken control of several villages. The border town of Vovchansk is almost certainly an immediate Russian objective and is currently contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
By opening up an additional axis of attack, Russia is almost certainly attempting to divert Ukrainian resources away from other parts of the front line and to threaten Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia has built up sufficient combat power to take the city without diverting additional forces into the area.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 May 2024
Russia's newly-formed Northern Grouping of Forces have attacked into Ukraine's Kharkiv region and taken control of several villages. The border town of Vovchansk is almost certainly an immediate Russian objective and is currently contested between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
By opening up an additional axis of attack, Russia is almost certainly attempting to divert Ukrainian resources away from other parts of the front line and to threaten Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Russia has built up sufficient combat power to take the city without diverting additional forces into the area.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:39 am to ticklechain
quote:
RT is reporting
That is when you lost me. Russia Today has always been a propaganda news outlet for the Kremlin and why it was formed.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:44 am to CitizenK
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:45 am to No Colors
They were in the defensive, and didn’t have the manpower for such a thing.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:47 am to SirWinston
quote:
Wouldn’t he be committing hate crime in Oregon when he kicked your autistic anti semantic arse? I'm all bluster, mate. We'd probably wind up getting on famously
As I figured. You’re all hat and no cattle.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:50 am to cypher
Here is a question for the "grind Russia down" crowd.
The narrative is that we are sending Ukraine our "older stuff", so when we replace that equipment we will be getting the latest and greatest. Thats fair.
We know by verifiable fact that Russia is pulling their "older stuff" out of storage to use. Moreso out of necessity on their end it seems, but they are doing it nonetheless and that equipment will also eventually be replaced with new equipment.
We also know for a fact there is an effort to transition the Russian economy to a wartime economy.
Therefore if we "grind Russia down" and don't plan on going in ourselves with NATO to finish the job, all we are really doing is strengthening their military and their military economy long term.
So you have a Germany at the end of WW1 situation where you have an economy that has been hit by sanctions (though Russia won't be totally decimated economically like Germany was then) and by the time their military builds back up it will be far better equipped than it is now, likely selling equipment to other countries that we also aren't super fond of, AND will almost assuredly have a new ruler who is a coin flip at best on whether or not they will be worse for the world as Putin. If we thought the Russia problem could be solved by Putin taking the long sleep it would have happened a long time ago.
So then you have a potential Germany at the start of WW2 situation where you have a well-equipped army equipped by this new military industry that was started out of necessity, ran by a ruler who might actually have aims on reuniting the entire USSR or maybe even going further than that.
The narrative is that we are sending Ukraine our "older stuff", so when we replace that equipment we will be getting the latest and greatest. Thats fair.
We know by verifiable fact that Russia is pulling their "older stuff" out of storage to use. Moreso out of necessity on their end it seems, but they are doing it nonetheless and that equipment will also eventually be replaced with new equipment.
We also know for a fact there is an effort to transition the Russian economy to a wartime economy.
Therefore if we "grind Russia down" and don't plan on going in ourselves with NATO to finish the job, all we are really doing is strengthening their military and their military economy long term.
So you have a Germany at the end of WW1 situation where you have an economy that has been hit by sanctions (though Russia won't be totally decimated economically like Germany was then) and by the time their military builds back up it will be far better equipped than it is now, likely selling equipment to other countries that we also aren't super fond of, AND will almost assuredly have a new ruler who is a coin flip at best on whether or not they will be worse for the world as Putin. If we thought the Russia problem could be solved by Putin taking the long sleep it would have happened a long time ago.
So then you have a potential Germany at the start of WW2 situation where you have a well-equipped army equipped by this new military industry that was started out of necessity, ran by a ruler who might actually have aims on reuniting the entire USSR or maybe even going further than that.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:52 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Maybe that is because moving forces to reinforce Kharkiv would weaken the rest of the front. I assume that’s the idea. Especially if they go back into Sumy.
Your sauces were wrong. The 92nd mechanized division and several other of Ukraine’s best units are moving to Kharkiv per X.
quote:
Kharkiv is 35 km from the front and Russian forces are getting caught up in the prepared defenses that the Ukrainians have fallen back to There don’t appear to be any major defensive works in the north
Russia has penetrated less than 5 miles into Ukraine. The Ukrainian fortifications were built outside of Russian artillery range. The fortifications start around the next line of villages.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:56 am to No Colors
Posted on 5/14/24 at 7:58 am to VolSquatch
quote:
We know by verifiable fact that Russia is pulling their "older stuff" out of storage to use. Moreso out of necessity on their end it seems, but they are doing it nonetheless and that equipment will also eventually be replaced with new equipment.
We also know for a fact there is an effort to transition the Russian economy to a wartime economy.
Therefore if we "grind Russia down" and don't plan on going in ourselves with NATO to finish the job, all we are really doing is strengthening their military and their military economy long term.
Russia's old stuff is from the 1960's and earlier, not 1980's.
Russia's manufacturing, even arms and munitions, has labor issues which is nothing new. It relies on labor from former Soviet nations. In Omsk, 14 year olds are now working. Switching to wartime economy means that manufacturing which was making things no one wanted outside of Russia will be shifted to making things that no one wants outside of Russia at very low productivity rates. Manhours per widget overcomes its cost per manhour advantage over the West.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:02 am to CitizenK
quote:
Russia's old stuff is from the 1960's and earlier, not 1980's.
And the stuff its eventually replaced with will be manufactured in the 2020's and 2030's, which is more relevant to my point
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:14 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Therefore if we "grind Russia down" and don't plan on going in ourselves with NATO to finish the job, all we are really doing is strengthening their military and their military economy long term
How are they strengthening their military? Russia has lost over 3000 tanks in this war. Those were T90s, T80s, and modernized T72s which were its most advanced tanks. Those tanks are being replaced by unmodernized T72s, T62s, and T55s pulled from storage. Same thing applies to its helicopters, planes, APCs, and the quality of the training of its troops. Russia’s military economy might be expanding but they are replacing licensed western technology like the fire control system on their tanks with cold war era technology.
I will admit that a Weimar Republic type situation in Russia is not ideal, but it’s better than letting Putin and his cronies continue to be in charge. Putin and his cronies have openly stated that their goal is recreate the Russian empire and that means taking back the Baltic countries which are NATO members. That means WW3. It will take Russia 10-20 years to rebuild its military back to being “2nd strongest army in the world” once the fighting is over in Ukraine. Putin is 71 so 10-20 years will likely see him out of the picture. Hopefully the rest of NATO continues to build up their military capabilities so Putin and/or his successor will not even contemplate attacking a NATO nation. Wearing down Russia is the only way to prevent WW3 IMHO because if Russia succeeds in Ukraine the Baltic countries will be next.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:19 am to WeeWee
quote:
How are they strengthening their military? Russia has lost over 3000 tanks in this war. Those were T90s, T80s, and modernized T72s which were its most advanced tanks. Those tanks are being replaced by unmodernized T72s, T62s, and T55s pulled from storage. Same thing applies to its helicopters, planes, APCs, and the quality of the training of its troops. Russia’s military economy might be expanding but they are replacing licensed western technology like the fire control system on their tanks with cold war era technology.
You're looking at this short term. Their military likely won't be strengthened during this war, but in the years after its entirely possible if not the most likely outcome that the equipment they are pulling out of storage will be replaced with newly manufactured equipment. Its unlikely that a nation as large and with as many people and natural resources as Russia just withers away into a shell of itself and not rebuild its military, regardless of the result of the Ukraine War.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:33 am to VolSquatch
quote:
You're looking at this short term. Their military likely won't be strengthened during this war, but in the years after its entirely possible if not the most likely outcome that the equipment they are pulling out of storage will be replaced with newly manufactured equipment. Its unlikely that a nation as large and with as many people and natural resources as Russia just withers away into a shell of itself and not rebuild its military, regardless of the result of the Ukraine War.
Then they will be made in China. Demographic collapse has already doomed Russia. It has to already import labor worse. It imported skilled labor from Eastern Europe nations pre 2022, and that has dried up.
Posted on 5/14/24 at 8:36 am to VolSquatch
quote:
will take Russia 10-20 years to rebuild its military back to being “2nd strongest army in the world” once the fighting is over in Ukraine. Putin is 71 so 10-20 years will likely see him out of the picture.
quote:
You're looking at this short term
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