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re: Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:04 pm to 0x15E
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:04 pm to 0x15E
quote:
2-pt conversion would’ve been the right call
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT. But, like you, I would not have criticized BK had he gone for two and lost.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 12:05 pm
3
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:36 pm to Penrod
quote:completely disagree. We had just ripped their hearts out with the goal line fumble recovery and 99 yards drive. We had ALL the momentum and they were demoralized.
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT.
I would've gone for 2 and ended it right there.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:40 pm to Penrod
quote:
Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT
Not the way the special teams played all night long. I had no confidence in the XP.
We had them on their heels. Some things require more than a quick look at analytics. When you're hot, you finish them off.
BK did the right thing on paper, but sometimes thats not the right thing in real life.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:15 pm to Penrod
quote:I just think that's a really old way of thinking. LSU had FSU on their heels and we had all the momentum. They could have let Daniels sit back in the pocket and run or throw. He had been slippery all night.
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT. But, like you, I would not have criticized BK had he gone for two and lost.
Why do people think we had the momentum going into overtime? That's not a thing, the game basically starts over again. Do you think we continue going uptempo at that point now that time wasn't urgent? We rarely stopped them all game on 3rd downs and our kicking game was horrendous.
There is no way real in game analytics would have heavily favored going for a PAT and winning in OT compared to going for 2 when you currently had all the momentum. Wish we had a system that could analysis in game trends and put out a real assessment of a play like that.
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