re: Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt

Without knowing the extra-point would be blocked or what the outcome of OT would be, there was probably no "wrong" decision in the moment. That is one of those where the HC has to make a call on "feel".

Even before the XP was blocked I wanted Kelly to go for two. LSU had just driven 99 yards, nearly unimpeded, in just over a minute. They would have had the ball in their possession, at the 2 yard line, with a hot QB, and a chance to end the game right then and there. A chance quite frankly they never should have had in the first place but for FSU foolishly fumbling on the LSU goal-line with a chance to make it a two possession game with very little time remaining.

I didn't want to move the ball back to the 25 in OT and give FSU another possession when LSU was probably fortunate to have a chance to win it in regulation anyway. In other words, LSU shouldn't have had a chance to win that game after the Nabers fumble...but they did, and after the TD was the time to take full advantage without giving FSU another chance to win.

Had LSU scored with a minute or two remaining on the clock then I probably would have said kick the XP and go to OT. But with no time left on the clock that was the time to go for the killshot