re: LSU 57 @ Syracuse 80 Final - ESPN2

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Against all odds our defense actually has been okay this season, the large eye sore? Opponent 3 point percentage, we are giving up 35% from the 3 point line.

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What's worse is LSU is 2nd to worst in the NATION in % of opponent's points from 3. That is a big reason why opponents have stayed close and won in games where LSU had a significant FG% advantage.

It appears very clear that McMahon's defensive strategy is to allow opponents freedom to shoot as may threes as they like. How is it clear? Because LSU is 349 of 362 in opponent's 3 point attempts per game (28). That defensive approach seems to fly in the face of modern analytics where teams are happy to trade a lower shooting % for a higher volume of threes rather than have a higher shooting % with a lower volume of threes. The reason for that approach is so simple a kindergartener could understand it. 3 points is more than 2 points. That how LSU can shoot a combined average of 52% (overall) vs. combined 35% by Dayton and N. Texas and leave those games 1-1 with only a +1 point differential. The only way you don't win games going away with those margins is if you (a) let the opponent get a high VOLUME of threes and (2) allow your opponent to attempt significantly more shots than you (because of turnovers/poor defensive rebounding)

While LSU hasn't been overly efficient offensively (to date), they aren't shooting the ball poorly. 47%...ranked 58th of 362. LSU hasn't been great at holding on to the ball. Turning it over on 18% of their possessions (ranked 225/362). But they have completely mitigated that by being great at forcing the opponent to turn the ball over. Opponents are turning the ball over vs. LSU on 23% of their possessions. That's good enough to rank LSU at 17th in the nation in that stat. Where LSU is getting killed more than anywhere else is they are allowing opponents to make (on average) 10 three pointers a game 345th out of 362

Like you said, Syracuse has not been a good 3 point shooting team this year. So, presumably, this matchup could favor LSU. I'm ok with LSU allowing Syracuse to prove they can hit from deep early on. But if they start out hot from deep, McMahon MUST be willing to quickly adjust to get SU off the three point line.

Just like vs. Wake Forest, these are the three stats I will be watching

1. Opponent's made 3 pointers.

If LSU can keep SU in the 6-9 range of made 3 pointers I think LSU could have a shot. 10+, then LSU will have to shoot a season high from 3 to match.

2. Turnovers

Can LSU limit their turnovers to 10 or less while forcing 13 or more? Forcing turnovers has been LSU's biggest advantage to date. I would love to see LSU in the +6-7 range tonight.

3. FG attempts

LSU is 297th in the country in total FG attempts (56). They are 310th in opponent FG attempt allowed (63). More FG attempts = more opportunities for made baskets. Less FG attempts means a lower margin for error of missed baskets.

Syracuse is averaging 65 FGA per game (24th in the nation). That's nearly 10 more than what LSU is averaging. Can LSU close that margin? If the FGA discrepancy is +4-5 Syracuse, I think LSU could be ok. If it is +10-15, I don't care what FG% LSU shoots, Syracuse is likely going to win.