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re: Who trades up for JJ McCarthy?
Posted on 2/15/24 at 1:11 pm to wildtigercat93
Posted on 2/15/24 at 1:11 pm to wildtigercat93
quote:
The best lesson I’ve learned over the last decade is that no one has any idea or clue about QBs, team personnel or otherwise. It’s all hindsight praise for lucky selections. So the message board guy is just as likely to be right as the team guy when it comes to QBs, bc we’re all just guessing.
Except it’s not just guessing for the scouts. They watch tape, not just highlights or stat sheets. They look for certain physical criteria. Notice how some teams do better consistently over time.
The disconnect is people treat the perfect as the enemy of the good. They were wrong on some guys so you think they can’t be listened to. The closest analogy I can think of is recruiting rankings. People love to say “stars don’t matter” because some 5* was a complete bust in college and some 2* becomes a first round pick and a star. But a much higher percentage of 5*s go on to be studs and first round picks (the first 3 picks in 2023 all 5*).
There are a million factors that go into why a player, especially a QB succeed. What team drafts him and the offense/coaching and his own work ethic and health among them.
QBs do get over drafted because of the importance of the position but it’s shocking to me how poorly coached most are given the importance
If the fans are right is a blind squirrel finding a nut.
McCarthy has the size and physical tools he’s also only 21. What I’ve read some scouts love what they see in tape I assume processing reads, accuracy, arm strength on the intermediate throws that type of stuff that fans can not judge watching on TV or looking at box scores
Posted on 2/15/24 at 5:34 pm to H-Town Tiger
Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance were all highly drafted (top 15 selection) quarterbacks who ended up sucking.
Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Tua and Justin Herbert are highly drafted quarterbacks in the same timespan who ended up being good or elite.
There is a lot of middling/serviceable in between, such as Baker, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Fields or Trevor Lawrence.
The relatively even spread of good, okay and shitty shows to me that highly drafted quarterbacks are a crapshoot.
Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Tua and Justin Herbert are highly drafted quarterbacks in the same timespan who ended up being good or elite.
There is a lot of middling/serviceable in between, such as Baker, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Fields or Trevor Lawrence.
The relatively even spread of good, okay and shitty shows to me that highly drafted quarterbacks are a crapshoot.
This post was edited on 2/15/24 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 2/15/24 at 5:54 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Except it’s not just guessing for the scouts. They watch tape, not just highlights or stat sheets. They look for certain physical criteria.
Educated guessing. Similar to a gambler who studies the trends for advantages. I agree they are more qualified to be the ones making the dart throw, but at the end of the day it is a dart throw
quote:
Notice how some teams do better consistently over time.
Tables hot, you’re just biding time against your next cold streak
quote:
There are a million factors that go into why a player, especially a QB succeed. What team drafts him and the offense/coaching and his own work ethic and health among them.
Yeah we’re just saying the same thing at this point :lo:
This post was edited on 2/15/24 at 5:55 pm
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