re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are

quote:

---

Take the switch every time

---

Not sure about this, just seems like a reverse of the gambler's fallacy. I mean statistically speaking tails hitting 20 times in a row is almost impossible, but after 19 in row it's still 50/50 to hit tails the next time.

In the shell game just because you were more likely to lose at first, it should still be 50/50 for where the correct one is. Each act is independent.