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Started By
Message
re: Let's Find Out How Smart You Baws Are
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:29 am to AUstar
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:29 am to AUstar
quote:
I then ask you if you want to keep your selection or change your pick to the other remaining shell.
Always change. Statistically, it increases your chances of winning (Monte Hall Scenario)
3
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:32 am to madmaxvol
quote:
Always change. Statistically, it increases your chances of winning
Explain???
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:44 am to madmaxvol
You baws who knew it was the Monty Hall Problem impress me. I tried to disguise it, but yes, you are right.
Someone sent this problem to Marilyn vos Savant back in the 80's. She had the highest IQ in the world at that time and wrote a "Ask me anything" column for Parade Magazine. A lot of intellectuals hated her because she had a massive IQ but no academic degree (she dropped out).
Anyway, she responded in her column that it is always the best option to switch and gave her reasoning. She got hate mail from PhD mathematicians who said she was wrong and it is 50/50 no matter what.
Finally a team of guys at MIT got together and ran scenarios. They came to the conclusion that Marilyn was right. One of the MIT guys said "I went into it thinking she was wrong, but she is right."
Fun fact: Marilyn is descended from German physicist Ernst Mach (the guy we named speed of sound after).
Someone sent this problem to Marilyn vos Savant back in the 80's. She had the highest IQ in the world at that time and wrote a "Ask me anything" column for Parade Magazine. A lot of intellectuals hated her because she had a massive IQ but no academic degree (she dropped out).
Anyway, she responded in her column that it is always the best option to switch and gave her reasoning. She got hate mail from PhD mathematicians who said she was wrong and it is 50/50 no matter what.
Finally a team of guys at MIT got together and ran scenarios. They came to the conclusion that Marilyn was right. One of the MIT guys said "I went into it thinking she was wrong, but she is right."
Fun fact: Marilyn is descended from German physicist Ernst Mach (the guy we named speed of sound after).
Posted on 3/22/24 at 1:46 pm to madmaxvol
Man my head hurts now 
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