The committee has definitely shown they give great weight to the RPI in recent seasons, but I honestly don’t see how they could give LSU a Top 8 seed with their 12-12 conference record. I think you are right they have a real chance but it’s going to take them going with the RPI and throwing out conference records.

LSU is 3-1 non-conference against RPI Top 25 teams and 13-11 overall. They are 24-14 vs Q1 with no other losses. Let’s compare that to other contenders.

It is interesting that the NCAA website has LSU #3, while Warren Nolan has LSU #5 even after the Tennessee win. Texas, Oklahoma, Duke, and Tennessee are ahead of them in Nolan’s RPI and should be locks for Top 8 regardless.

The next 2 after LSU are Stanford and UCLA. UCLA won the PAC-12 at 17-4, but they were only 2-6 non-conference against RPI Top 25 teams. They are 9-9 overall against the RPI Top 25, but 17-9 against Q1 with 1 Q2 loss. LSU has the edge against Top 25, but the overall Q1 record is close. The conference records and series losses for LSU make it hard to argue they should be ahead of UCLA. Stanford was 17-7 in conference, 5-2 non-conference vs T25, 13-7 overall vs T25, and 20-10 vs Q1 with 2 other losses. They have a better T25 record and Q1 record, but the 2 bad losses do cut into that advantage. Again, it’s close but conference records and series losses should put LSU behind Stanford as well.

Oklahoma St is next. LSU won the head-to-head, but Oklahoma St is 9-5 vs T25 and 20-7 vs Q1. They do have 3 Q2 losses though. Series wins over Texas and Oklahoma and the T25/Q1 record should put them ahead of LSU.

That leaves LSU, Florida, Missouri, and Georgia battling for the last spot In the Top 8. The series losses to Florida and Missouri hurt here as well as the 12-12 conference record to 17-7 for Florida. Florida is also 14-8 vs T25 and 21-11 vs Q1 with 1 Q2 loss. Florida should be Top 8, really Top 5.

It’ll be interesting to see. I won’t be upset if they end up Top 8, obviously, but I just don’t see it being deserved. Top 10, yes, but not Top 8.

This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 9:45 pm