Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

Rats! I suppose I’ll have to go fishing off Montauk instead.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we gettin' a cat 5 on Labor Day

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Nope. Don't Like That.

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rds dc

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shite

Nicaragua says. "you ain't coming here"

We desperately need the rain up here in Indiana. Tropical storm looks like the only way we might be able to get some....

Models are coming into agreement that we will see development over the next 3-5 days and then a general NW movement into the Gulf. The 12z EPS has a bit more of a northern spread than the GEFS but the GEFS might have a bit of south bias in these type setups.



This setup will be tough on the models, there is a developing EPAC system, a monsoon trough, and a westward moving tropical wave.



Models show a pretty favorable upper level environment over the Gulf as the system consolidates and moves toward the Yucatan. There is a PV streamer over the Western Gulf but outflow from an organized system would make short work of that.



One of the issues with this system is that the overall system envelope will be large with lots of moisture. Models tend to struggle with this, esp. when it comes to pinning down the location and timing of consolidation of the LLC. Slower and/or farther south means land interaction with the Yucatan and less time to organize in the Gulf. Faster and/or farther north could result in issues down the road.

Either way, lots of moisture moving NW with this system and someone will get a lot of rain.

GFS puts it into south Texas. Euro puts it into Louisiana but as a weak TS.

Euro thinks the high pressure ridge keeping the northern gulf closed eroded while GFS keeps it in place.

Let’s hope the Euro is wrong