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Started By
Message
Halftime: Golden State Warriors 60 LSU 32
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:42 pm
Note: I'll be at the game, so do NOT make this the official thread.
18th ranked Alabama (11-3) rolls into BR as one of the hottest teams in the entire country. Pre-conference this team was nothing special. Nate Oats built a schedule similar to what Will Wade does...above average teams that help your NET and don't hurt if you lose. Since SEC play started, they've won on the road at Tennessee and Kentucky, and just beat the brakes off of Arkansas. They have a NET ranking of 18 (LSU is NET 21) and are 3-0 on the road.
Alabama Statistics- (National Ranking)
Offensive:
PPG: 80.1 (24th)
ORPG: 10.6 (46th)
APG: 13.8 (127th)
TOPG: 13.3 (133rd)
FG%: 42.8% (213th)
2P%: 50.3% (160th)
3P%: 34.1% (154th)
FT%: 69.4% (201st)
Offensive Rebounding %: 30.0% (75th)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.036 (84th)
Possessions Per Game: 77.4 (24th)
3-Pointers Attempted Per Game: 29.8 (8th)
Defensive Stats:
PPG: 70.1 (140th)
DRPG: 25.7 (68th)
BPG: 3.9 (85th)
SPG: 8.7 (23rd)
FG%: 40.4% (55th)
2P%: 45.8% (61st)
3P%: 30.6% (74th)
Opponent TOPG: 16.1 (39th)
Opponent Offensive Rebounding %: 27.6% (222nd)
Fouls Committed PG: 18.9 (248th)
Defensive Efficiency: .907 (45th)
What The Stats Say:
Alabama wants to play aggressive and they want to play fast. They're one of the top teams in the country in possessions per game while also being an extremely efficient defensive team.
On offense, they want to shoot from 3 land...A LOT. They average almost 30 3's a game. The great equalizer is the 3. They don't shoot it great, but it creates long rebound opportunities which they are great at turning into other open 3's. They don't have any superstars but much like LSU, they have a 4some that does their most damage.
On defense, they want to create turnovers, and run. However, that aggressiveness, and especially wanting to get out and run, leads to lots of opponent offensive rebounds and lots of fouls committed. This is where I think LSU can really capitalize. Bama does do a very solid job at contesting shots, making life difficult in general for the opposing team.
Key Players:
G Jaden Shackelford- 13.6PPG, 4.3 RPG, 37% 3P%, 39% FG%
G John Petty JR- 13.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 37.8% 3P%
F Herb Jones- 12.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 47% FG%
G Jahvon Quinerly- 12.5PPG, 3.5apg, 28.9% 3P%, 46.2% FG%
Petty and Herb Jones are Senior leaders who have been around since I think Brady was still coaching. Shoutout to Petty for having the worst hair in the league year in and year out. However, the guy is one of the best shooters out there. He gets more open 3's than Cam Thomas does because of their style, but if he's open the ball goes in more times than not.
Quinerly is a PG through and through that likes to drive and kick, attack the basket. Bruner is a tall athletic player in the middle that is a rebounder and likes to shot block. Shackelford forces up lots of shots (much like Cam), but don't let the FG% tell you how dangerous he can be.
Their players are the definition of a TEAM. Petty gets most the headlines, but they have 6 players that average between 7.6 to 13.6 points per game. By comparison, LSU relies much more heavily on just 4 players.
LSU Stats for Comparison:
Here is a thread I did the other day. I didn't update the stats after the USCe game, but they haven't changed a whole lot.
LSU Stats Thread
Prediction:
Alabama is 11-3 on the season. They've only won ONCE when scoring under 80 points (71-63 @UT). They've also only allowed two teams to scoring 80+ all season (83-80 W vs Furman and 94-90 W @Aub). Just by simple math, you'd say whoever scores 80 first has the best chance to win.
There's a lot to really dictate who will have an advantage. LSU is great at offensive rebounding and Bama sucks at opposing that...and vice versa. Bama creates turnovers and LSU gives the ball away. Bama shoots a ton of 3's and that's LSU's specialty in defense. Bama fouls a ridiculous amount and LSU is an elite FT shooting team. So...who bends? Who breaks? It's a big game in BR tonight, but I think it will be one of the most fun games of the season.
My prediction is that Bama comes out and hits some 3's. LSU hangs around, continues to attack, get some guys in foul trouble, and ultimately wins this at the FT line.
LSU- 88
Bama- 82
18th ranked Alabama (11-3) rolls into BR as one of the hottest teams in the entire country. Pre-conference this team was nothing special. Nate Oats built a schedule similar to what Will Wade does...above average teams that help your NET and don't hurt if you lose. Since SEC play started, they've won on the road at Tennessee and Kentucky, and just beat the brakes off of Arkansas. They have a NET ranking of 18 (LSU is NET 21) and are 3-0 on the road.
Alabama Statistics- (National Ranking)
Offensive:
PPG: 80.1 (24th)
ORPG: 10.6 (46th)
APG: 13.8 (127th)
TOPG: 13.3 (133rd)
FG%: 42.8% (213th)
2P%: 50.3% (160th)
3P%: 34.1% (154th)
FT%: 69.4% (201st)
Offensive Rebounding %: 30.0% (75th)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.036 (84th)
Possessions Per Game: 77.4 (24th)
3-Pointers Attempted Per Game: 29.8 (8th)
Defensive Stats:
PPG: 70.1 (140th)
DRPG: 25.7 (68th)
BPG: 3.9 (85th)
SPG: 8.7 (23rd)
FG%: 40.4% (55th)
2P%: 45.8% (61st)
3P%: 30.6% (74th)
Opponent TOPG: 16.1 (39th)
Opponent Offensive Rebounding %: 27.6% (222nd)
Fouls Committed PG: 18.9 (248th)
Defensive Efficiency: .907 (45th)
What The Stats Say:
Alabama wants to play aggressive and they want to play fast. They're one of the top teams in the country in possessions per game while also being an extremely efficient defensive team.
On offense, they want to shoot from 3 land...A LOT. They average almost 30 3's a game. The great equalizer is the 3. They don't shoot it great, but it creates long rebound opportunities which they are great at turning into other open 3's. They don't have any superstars but much like LSU, they have a 4some that does their most damage.
On defense, they want to create turnovers, and run. However, that aggressiveness, and especially wanting to get out and run, leads to lots of opponent offensive rebounds and lots of fouls committed. This is where I think LSU can really capitalize. Bama does do a very solid job at contesting shots, making life difficult in general for the opposing team.
Key Players:
G Jaden Shackelford- 13.6PPG, 4.3 RPG, 37% 3P%, 39% FG%
G John Petty JR- 13.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 37.8% 3P%
F Herb Jones- 12.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 47% FG%
G Jahvon Quinerly- 12.5PPG, 3.5apg, 28.9% 3P%, 46.2% FG%
Petty and Herb Jones are Senior leaders who have been around since I think Brady was still coaching. Shoutout to Petty for having the worst hair in the league year in and year out. However, the guy is one of the best shooters out there. He gets more open 3's than Cam Thomas does because of their style, but if he's open the ball goes in more times than not.
Quinerly is a PG through and through that likes to drive and kick, attack the basket. Bruner is a tall athletic player in the middle that is a rebounder and likes to shot block. Shackelford forces up lots of shots (much like Cam), but don't let the FG% tell you how dangerous he can be.
Their players are the definition of a TEAM. Petty gets most the headlines, but they have 6 players that average between 7.6 to 13.6 points per game. By comparison, LSU relies much more heavily on just 4 players.
LSU Stats for Comparison:
Here is a thread I did the other day. I didn't update the stats after the USCe game, but they haven't changed a whole lot.
LSU Stats Thread
Prediction:
Alabama is 11-3 on the season. They've only won ONCE when scoring under 80 points (71-63 @UT). They've also only allowed two teams to scoring 80+ all season (83-80 W vs Furman and 94-90 W @Aub). Just by simple math, you'd say whoever scores 80 first has the best chance to win.
There's a lot to really dictate who will have an advantage. LSU is great at offensive rebounding and Bama sucks at opposing that...and vice versa. Bama creates turnovers and LSU gives the ball away. Bama shoots a ton of 3's and that's LSU's specialty in defense. Bama fouls a ridiculous amount and LSU is an elite FT shooting team. So...who bends? Who breaks? It's a big game in BR tonight, but I think it will be one of the most fun games of the season.
My prediction is that Bama comes out and hits some 3's. LSU hangs around, continues to attack, get some guys in foul trouble, and ultimately wins this at the FT line.
LSU- 88
Bama- 82
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 9:04 pm
28
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:44 pm to LSUButt
I really think this is a good match up for us. I agree with your prediction that it'll be a high-scoring, close game but we come away with the win.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:44 pm to LSUButt
LFGGGGGGGGGGGG
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:45 pm to LSUButt
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:46 pm to jimbeam
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:46 pm to LSUButt
I think both teams will be aggressive and get into some foul trouble. It's going to come down to bench play and, as you said, free throws.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:54 pm to LSUButt
Bruner is out with for a while correct?
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:58 pm to LSUButt
Solid work as usual, my man! Thanks for the info.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 2:58 pm to LSUButt
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:00 pm to LSUButt
Got to defend the orchard tonight boys!
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:01 pm to The Boat
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:02 pm to LSUButt
Good write up!
Just FYI, Bruner is out with a knee injury. On the other hand, Alex Reese sucks against everyone but LSU. He seems to kill LSU from deep while not being able to do much against anyone else. He's someone to watch.
In the first matchup last year in the PMAC LSU destroyed Bama inside. 50 points in the pain and 49 total rebounds. In the second game, not so much. Alabama has probably the best "spurtability" of any team in the league because of their style of play. They bomb away from three, play fast, and try to force you into turnovers. They can get a quick 9 points in the blink of an eye. LSU on the other hand is just an efficient offensive machine. It may not always look "pretty", but LSU doesn't go on a lot of long scoring droughts. It is just a constant march of putting points on the board.
I expect Watford and Thomas to attack the rim non-stop to try to put Alabama's main guys in foul trouble. Same for Days on the offensive glass. This is NOT a game for LSU to fall in love with the 3.
On defense I'm curious to see what LSU does? Like it or not, LSU's defensive approach is to change defenses and hit you with different types of pressure to try to force steals. But Bama wants to play very fast. Does LSU keep up the defensive pressure? Or, to they ease off knowing their opponent wants a high speed game? Grabbing defensive rebounds will be imperative for LSU.
Finally, he didn't play much vs. USC because they are a much more physical team, but I expect to see a lot more of Gaines tonight. He's probably LSU's best player at anticipating and getting into passing lanes.
Just FYI, Bruner is out with a knee injury. On the other hand, Alex Reese sucks against everyone but LSU. He seems to kill LSU from deep while not being able to do much against anyone else. He's someone to watch.
In the first matchup last year in the PMAC LSU destroyed Bama inside. 50 points in the pain and 49 total rebounds. In the second game, not so much. Alabama has probably the best "spurtability" of any team in the league because of their style of play. They bomb away from three, play fast, and try to force you into turnovers. They can get a quick 9 points in the blink of an eye. LSU on the other hand is just an efficient offensive machine. It may not always look "pretty", but LSU doesn't go on a lot of long scoring droughts. It is just a constant march of putting points on the board.
I expect Watford and Thomas to attack the rim non-stop to try to put Alabama's main guys in foul trouble. Same for Days on the offensive glass. This is NOT a game for LSU to fall in love with the 3.
On defense I'm curious to see what LSU does? Like it or not, LSU's defensive approach is to change defenses and hit you with different types of pressure to try to force steals. But Bama wants to play very fast. Does LSU keep up the defensive pressure? Or, to they ease off knowing their opponent wants a high speed game? Grabbing defensive rebounds will be imperative for LSU.
Finally, he didn't play much vs. USC because they are a much more physical team, but I expect to see a lot more of Gaines tonight. He's probably LSU's best player at anticipating and getting into passing lanes.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:24 pm to LSUButt
Don't be bringing anything that could be viewed as positive up in here...we have a melt over the DC search going on. Can't slow down a LSU fan b***h fest.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:34 pm to LSU0358
Sharp $$$ has come in on the Tide. Line has flipped. Bama now favored by 1.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:48 pm to LSUButt
Great job as always and thank you for the write up. I like the matchup tonight and I think it’s an 8-12 point win for our Tigers. 1-5 I think favors us in 4 spots...
Smart > Quinearly
Thomas > Shackelford
Wilkinson < Petty
Watford > Jones
Days > Reese
The benches will be big in tonight’s game. Primo + Bruner might have given them a slight edge in terms of reliability off the bench but with Bruner out, us at home and the recent improvement of Gaines and Leblanc I believe it swings in our favor. We also have a couple of wildcards in Cook and Hyatt who could provide extra production and further widen that bench gap. Of course our defense will also be a huge key tonight. We have to close out on shooters and not overcommit to help on drives. Reese has about a 6 inch vertical and Jones isn’t the best finisher so we don’t need to commit extra bodies on help that would leave us susceptible to the 3. Overall I think these two teams are a lot alike only LSU is more talented. Our best beats Bama’s best going away so it comes down to us.
Smart > Quinearly
Thomas > Shackelford
Wilkinson < Petty
Watford > Jones
Days > Reese
The benches will be big in tonight’s game. Primo + Bruner might have given them a slight edge in terms of reliability off the bench but with Bruner out, us at home and the recent improvement of Gaines and Leblanc I believe it swings in our favor. We also have a couple of wildcards in Cook and Hyatt who could provide extra production and further widen that bench gap. Of course our defense will also be a huge key tonight. We have to close out on shooters and not overcommit to help on drives. Reese has about a 6 inch vertical and Jones isn’t the best finisher so we don’t need to commit extra bodies on help that would leave us susceptible to the 3. Overall I think these two teams are a lot alike only LSU is more talented. Our best beats Bama’s best going away so it comes down to us.
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:50 pm to Madking
LSU is more talented, but Bama is playing really well as a team. It will be interesting to see which prevails in this sort of matchup.
This post was edited on 1/19/21 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 1/19/21 at 3:58 pm to LSU Patrick
The only thing that makes me nervous about tonight is the zone defense. This is the perfect team to play man, run shooters off the line and have single player challenges at the rim. With the inevitably high pace it’ll be played at and Bama only having one real ball handler you could use a defender like Cook off the bench to wear him down and cause a lot of issues late in the game with turnovers and sloppy play.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 4:03 pm to LSUButt
Bama
Kentucky
A&M (gimme game)
Texas Tech
Bama
HUGE stretch of games coming up. Gotta go at least 3-2, if we go 4-1 that’s awesome, and 5-0 we should be a top 10-15 NET team I would think
Kentucky
A&M (gimme game)
Texas Tech
Bama
HUGE stretch of games coming up. Gotta go at least 3-2, if we go 4-1 that’s awesome, and 5-0 we should be a top 10-15 NET team I would think
Posted on 1/19/21 at 4:08 pm to 2019goats
Things are falling nicely into place for us as well. You have Florida dropping a couple canceling out our loss, you have Tennessee losing so we’re not in chase mode with them then Bama being unblemished and served up to us on a platter to knock off and get right back on top of the conference. We just need to play well tonight and we’re in the drivers seat.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 4:11 pm to Alt26
Ahhh, thanks Alt. I knew Jones was 50/50 for their Arkansas game and gutted it out. I had heard they had another doubtful for the game but I didn’t dive into box scores. Appreciate it.
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