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Message
re: Rush just hit a world series grand slam
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:57 pm to highbooost
Posted on 4/9/20 at 7:57 pm to highbooost
quote:You're clueless
IHME model has readjusted from 2.2 million US death to 60K, which is avg seasonal FLU deaths
The IHME fatality estimate of 60,000 is up to August 4.
August. That leaves out the entire upcoming flu season. What % of the H1N1 fatalities occurred in the next winter? 70-75%.
Why don't you redo your numbers to reflect the entire year/real world.
0
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:51 pm to djrunner
quote:
Restaurants are down over 50%
yeah. people are eating 50% less. quote:have you ever heard of the word "anecdotal?"
Traffic, are you kidding, at any time of the day I can get all the way across town in 10 mins
quote:yes. how does this change anything? keep seniors at home. close off nyc and nola. the virus doesn't have an expiration date so everyone else get back out there. you just justified why
You realize that anyone can carry right? And younger people don't always even know when they have the virus. You know these things right?
quote:this list of things that not essential is small. liquor stores are open. big box stores are open.
And besides essential businesses, who is working?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 12:02 am to Mr. Misanthrope
quote:
This seems a reasonable point. I guess it's easy to equate Covid19 and seasonal flu and just forget about all the near draconian mitigation policies put in place for Covid19.
You realize 30-50% of the population varying on the seasons, concentrated in the highest risk is vaccinated for influenza...
We actually have relatively weak social distancing that isnt’’ nearly draconian lmao. No true quarantine. Grocery Stores are still open. I went and walked around my local liquor store today. People still interact. It’s just no large gatherings basically. I’d bet those efforts are less significant of an impact than our flu vaccine efforts.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 12:03 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:27 am to bfniii
quote:
Restaurants are down over 50%
yeah. people are eating 50% less.
Stopped here.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 2:51 pm to AMS
quote:
We actually have relatively weak social distancing that isnt’’ nearly draconian lmao. No true quarantine. Grocery Stores are still open. I went and walked around my local liquor store today. People still interact. It’s just no large gatherings basically. I’d bet those efforts are less significant of an impact than our flu vaccine efforts.
You're probably right about the importance of flu vaccination efforts.
Draconian was intended tongue in cheek for the very exceptions you noted. (Personally our sons have virtually welded Mrs. M and me in house-virtually assuring I die at the hands of Mrs. M long before Covid19 has a crack at me-but that's another matter).
Absent a Covid vaccine, we had available to us only the restrictions on social gathering to limit infection and minimize deaths. I think this is really a comparison of vaccines versus social distancing which disguises to some extent how seasonal flu and Covid19 compare in virulence.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 3:11 pm to highbooost
You didn't respond to my post that pointed out that the IHME model, which you said projected 60,000 deaths, only went to August 4, 2020, and that 70-75% of H1N1 deaths occurred during the winter flu season following its outbreak.
Since you didn't respond to my invitation to redo your numbers, I'll do it for you.
Assuming the IHME model projection, and that COVID will follow the H1N1 pattern of 70% of its fatalities occurring in the winter following its outbreak, that would project 200,000 fatalities in the first year of the COVID virus.
I guess that outcome would demonstrate that the COVID virus is not like the flu. What do you think?
Since you didn't respond to my invitation to redo your numbers, I'll do it for you.
Assuming the IHME model projection, and that COVID will follow the H1N1 pattern of 70% of its fatalities occurring in the winter following its outbreak, that would project 200,000 fatalities in the first year of the COVID virus.
I guess that outcome would demonstrate that the COVID virus is not like the flu. What do you think?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 3:15 pm to highbooost
quote:
IHME model has readjusted from 2.2 million US death to 60K,
quote:
Rush
ah, so that's the bloated piece of shite source for that bit of fake news.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 7:38 pm to djrunner
quote:good thing. you probably wouldn't have understood the rest. like the cashiers who are taking money/plastic from every person who walks through the store are somehow not spreading the virus around about as much as if things were normal. are you rejecting packages and food at your house?
Stopped here
Posted on 4/12/20 at 1:53 am to 90proofprofessional
90npc with the genetic fallacy?! NO WAY. i don't believe it. someone of his caliber would never stoop that low
Posted on 4/12/20 at 2:09 am to FredBear
quote:
Social distancing has nothing to do with the number of deaths and was never intended to. It was to flatten the curve.
You shouldn't be so quick to call others dipshit
Social distancing is meant to flatten the curve, in the short term, but in theory is to be kept in place, in the long term, until there is a vaccine.
This post was edited on 4/12/20 at 2:11 am
Posted on 4/12/20 at 2:21 am to AMS
quote:
We actually have relatively weak social distancing that isnt’’ nearly draconian lmao. No true quarantine. Grocery Stores are still open. I went and walked around my local liquor store today. People still interact. It’s just no large gatherings basically. I’d bet those efforts are less significant of an impact than our flu vaccine efforts.
If you are basing any of this on flu numbers, you are uninformed.
Check the CDC website on how they estimate flu cases and deaths when an infinitesimal number of patients are given a flu test.
Also, check the website to learn how important significant flu numbers (cases and deaths) are to the CDC's ANNUAL reporting -- the Burden of the Flu -- which justifies the CDC's existence.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 7:01 am to highbooost
You’re the biggest retard on this board. You go videotape yourself screaming at hospital workers REEEE WHERES ALL THE SICK PEOPLE. The full lock down quarantine made the difference dumbass. That’s why the model changed. That’s why far fewer people are getting sick
Posted on 4/12/20 at 7:23 am to MIZ_USA
quote:
We don’t shut everything down to mitigate seasonal flu.
Nope, just have a vaccine.....you know, just like what we are told must be made to stop this virus
Posted on 4/12/20 at 7:24 am to Upperdecker
quote:
That’s why the model changed
Not entirely, likely not primarily
Posted on 4/12/20 at 7:55 am to doubleb
Do health officials attribute every single death during Flu season to the Flu like we are seeing with the KingFlu or are they being coded as COD due to the myriad of other health issues many have?
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