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Message
Our RPI is 33 with 2 SEC series left to play
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:00 pm
We are 31-18.Our Strength of Schedule is 22ish.
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
We'll make a Regional. It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
We'll get in.
Ole Miss RPI is 25.
Bama is 14.
If we win 4 of 6, and go to Hoover and go 2-2, we'll finish 38-22 and guess what?
We'll make a Regional. It doesn't matter if we get in as a 2 seed or a 3.
We'll get in.
Ole Miss RPI is 25.
Bama is 14.
16
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:03 pm to wheelz007
I think we can win these two series and be in.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:04 pm to wheelz007
Taking the series from T&M was huge. It most likely did save our season
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:12 pm to wheelz007
Go 4-6 and I don’t think what happens in Hoover matters
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:20 pm to Geauxld Finger
quote:
I don’t think what happens in Hoover matters
Agree, the committee has shown that they don't really care what happens in the SEC tournament. (They also change the criteria every year to support whatever decision they want to make.)
Some years, it's RPI, some years it's SOS, some years it's quality wins, others it's somehow all/none at the same time.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:28 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Agree, the committee has shown that they don't really care what happens in the SEC tournament. (They also change the criteria every year to support whatever decision they want to make.)
Some years, it's RPI, some years it's SOS, some years it's quality wins, others it's somehow all/none at the same time.
I think we'll be treated like UK in basketball when they have had under performing seasons. People know we're more talented than our record and that will help us. Also, being defending champs can't hurt.
We go 4-2 the next two weekends and we're in. Obviously, that's just, like, my opinion, man.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:32 pm to wheelz007
1. Even though there is technically no "cap" on the amount of teams from one conference that can reach the NCAA Tournament, I think it is reasonable to assume the committee won't take more than 10...if that.
2. Order of finish in the conference standings is completely irrelevant to the committee. Pretty much the same for the conference tournament as well (unless you win it). So LSU's tournament "resume" will likely be set after the Ole Miss series.
3. RPI is a tool used by the committee, but not the ultimate deciding factor. Meaning just because LSU gets to a certain number doesn't mean they are automatically in.
Taking all of that into account, I think we can pretty much assume these SEC teams are in:
A&M
Kentucky
Arkansas
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi St.
These two are not 100% locks, but probably pretty close to it:
Alabama
Vanderbilt
That leaves these three teams fighting for what will be 1 MAYBE 2 spots.
Florida
Ole Miss
LSU
I would say, today, LSU is behind Florida in the pecking order. Florida has the No. 1 SOS and 11th best non-conf. SOS. They've also won 10 games vs Q1 opponents
What is hurting LSU (aside from their poor SEC performance) is their non-conf. schedule isn't great (and will get worse tomorrow) and, until this past weekend, LSU has very few "good" wins. To add a little context, A&M has 11 Q1 wins. Kentucky has 17; Arkansas has 12, Georgia has 9, Tennessee has 11, Alabama has 11, Florida has 10, Ole Miss has 9.
LSU has FOUR (4)
If you take off the P&G glasses there is very little impressive about LSU's resume. That's the bad news. The good news is the season isn't over and LSU kept their hopes alive in a BIG way this weekend. If they can follow up this weekend by taking 2 from Alabama and 2 from Ole Miss, the will put themselves in position to be the 10th team taken from the SEC...if the committee takes 10, along with having an argument to be the 9th team if the committee takes 9. However, I don't think going 4-2 over the next 6 games makes LSU a "lock" by any stretch. It probably gives them a 50/50 shot. Anything worse than 4-2 and it will be panic time.
2. Order of finish in the conference standings is completely irrelevant to the committee. Pretty much the same for the conference tournament as well (unless you win it). So LSU's tournament "resume" will likely be set after the Ole Miss series.
3. RPI is a tool used by the committee, but not the ultimate deciding factor. Meaning just because LSU gets to a certain number doesn't mean they are automatically in.
Taking all of that into account, I think we can pretty much assume these SEC teams are in:
A&M
Kentucky
Arkansas
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi St.
These two are not 100% locks, but probably pretty close to it:
Alabama
Vanderbilt
That leaves these three teams fighting for what will be 1 MAYBE 2 spots.
Florida
Ole Miss
LSU
I would say, today, LSU is behind Florida in the pecking order. Florida has the No. 1 SOS and 11th best non-conf. SOS. They've also won 10 games vs Q1 opponents
What is hurting LSU (aside from their poor SEC performance) is their non-conf. schedule isn't great (and will get worse tomorrow) and, until this past weekend, LSU has very few "good" wins. To add a little context, A&M has 11 Q1 wins. Kentucky has 17; Arkansas has 12, Georgia has 9, Tennessee has 11, Alabama has 11, Florida has 10, Ole Miss has 9.
LSU has FOUR (4)
If you take off the P&G glasses there is very little impressive about LSU's resume. That's the bad news. The good news is the season isn't over and LSU kept their hopes alive in a BIG way this weekend. If they can follow up this weekend by taking 2 from Alabama and 2 from Ole Miss, the will put themselves in position to be the 10th team taken from the SEC...if the committee takes 10, along with having an argument to be the 9th team if the committee takes 9. However, I don't think going 4-2 over the next 6 games makes LSU a "lock" by any stretch. It probably gives them a 50/50 shot. Anything worse than 4-2 and it will be panic time.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:33 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
committee has shown that they don't really care what happens
The committee wants LSU in postseason. Its good for attendance and viewership, which brings in $$$. If LSU goes 4-2, they will be in.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:36 pm to BMTiger
If we win the next two series, that will put us at 5 SEC series won.
I think that is something that gets looked at. Not just win totals, but series wins.
Does anyone know what the breakdown of the rest of the SEC is on series won?
I think that is something that gets looked at. Not just win totals, but series wins.
Does anyone know what the breakdown of the rest of the SEC is on series won?
Posted on 5/6/24 at 1:43 pm to tigerbait1.6
quote:
Taking the series from T&M was huge. It most likely did save our season
If we get left out, it comes down to 2 fricking games.
Game 2 against Florida and game 2 against Vandy.
We were up 2 runs going into the 8th against Florida, and had won game 1. We were up 1 run going into the 8th against Vandy, and again had won game 1. You finish the job in those, and you take both of those series. At that point, getting run-ruled in games 3 sucks (like it did with A&M), but it's more an issue for depth.
If we did that, we'd be 33-16, 11-13 in the SEC, with 5 series wins in 8 series, with all series losses on the road against good teams (swept at Arkansas and Tennessee, who will be national seeds, and 1-2 at Miss State, who may still host a regional, or at worst will be a 2 seed somewhere).
In other words we'd be in line to go .500 or better in the SEC, quite possibly still alive to get a regional host if we can sweep someone- that's assuming we finish winning the next 2 series. If so, we'd have won 7 of 10 series in the conference. We don't match up with Ark and Tenn, but we'd be in the tier right below.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:01 pm to Alt26
Your excellent breakdown has me thinking that we will be left out. Why do I feel this way? I don't think we can beat Bama 2 out of 3 at their place and I don't think we can sweep OM at home. Also think we will need to win at least 2 games in the SEC Tourney. Also, who wins the conference tourneys in the mid major tourneys might cause us to be left out as well
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:05 pm to Scoob
Don't forget the Arky game 2 that went to extra innings after they blew the lead
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:10 pm to wheelz007
LSU is basically in the exact same scenario they were in 2021 if you look at it from a record point of view
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:17 pm to wheelz007
A sweep of the aggies would have been nice? But i'll take it! 
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:29 pm to Alt26
I would think winning the next 2 series would get our RPI in the high 20’s. With 5 series wins, including 5 in a row, we should at least be a 3 seed somewhere
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:29 pm to LSUJockStrap
Alt always brings the heat in his analysis. For what its worth, I think we take Friday and Saturday against Bama. The top end of our pitching is just too much. CJJ knows exactly who he can depend on going forward. LSU is going to be a tough out for anyone in games 1 and 2 but that's where it ends, unless we somehow get a 10-run rule and complete game from Jump or Holman.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:29 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
True but if we were to beat either Arkansas or Tennessee it would show the committee that this team clearly had some growing up to do in the first meeting
Posted on 5/6/24 at 2:59 pm to Adam4848
quote:
LSU is basically in the exact same scenario they were in 2021 if you look at it from a record point of view
Yep.
A lot of similarities. LSU didn't do anything all season against good SEC opponents except for a series win vs. (then) No. 6 Ole Miss. However, they won their final 3 SEC series. But for the "SEC Tournament matters" crowd, LSU lost to Georgia on opening day in the 8/9 matchup where LSU was the 9. Both teams had identical 13-17 SEC records. The broadcasters called it an "elimination game". Posters on here melted down after the loss...
LSU made the NCAA tournament. Georgia didn't.
Take 2 of 3 in the next two series and LSU will have a strong argument. But the margin for error is almost zero now. Gotta win!
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:00 pm to Alt26
quote:
Florida Ole Miss LSU
Florida legitimately might end the season with a sub .500 record which disqualifies them from the NCAAT unless they win the SECT. They have Kentucky at home and Georgia on the road to finish the season and they’re 24-23 right now. Would love to see them go 3-6 to finish the season off.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 3:02 pm to Alt26
quote:
Take 2 of 3 in the next two series and LSU will have a strong argument. But the margin for error is almost zero now. Gotta win!
I agree with this. I think how we go 4-2 over the next two weekends is as important as actually going 4-2. We actually need to win both series.
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