re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Respectfully responding: Why isn't THIS thread on the poli-board and not the OT?

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Because, fundamentally, it's not about politics, but rather about war. That is, it's about battles, tactics, military equipment, the terrain and weather, logistics, and strategy.

For those of us who are regulars in the thread, politics is only discussed in the ways that it relates to these things. So, I will write here stuff such as "Sen. McConnell says that Biden needs to accelerate US aid to Ukraine," because that's a bit where the politics influences the war -- it's still about the war.

But then we have Politards who invade the thread who want to hijack the thread to argue about whether we should support Ukraine or not. That's a Poliboard topic. Some of us regulars in this thread (myself included) are strongly pro-Ukraine, and some are not, but we all accept as normative the fact that the US government has decided that supporting Ukraine is in the strategic interest of the United States, because that is a fact, and accepting it allows us to talk about the war.

But the thread is constantly hijacked by those who want to come in here and argue that the US should not support Ukraine, and that's a discussion that strictly belongs on the Poli Board. Sadly, there aren't mods who care enough to help keep the thread focused.

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• CyberLux K8 UAS;
• Altius-600 UAS;
• Jump 20 UAS;

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Those are new pieces of equipment that have not previously been sent to Ukraine. Breaking Defense has details:

LINK

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CyberLux K8 UAS: North Carolina-based CyberLux is a provider of small quadcopter unmanned systems. A business presentation from June 2022 lists US Special Operations Command, Air Mobility Command and the Army, Air Force and Marine Corps broadly as customers.

While the K8 design is not listed on the company’s website, it features handheld-sized drones, which can have off-the-shelf cameras installed on them — the kind of equipment which the Ukrainians have made good use of for both surveillance and improvised weapons.

Altius-600 UAS: Built by a subsidiary of defense startup Anduril, the Altius-600 is a tube-launched UAS that the company says can be launched from the air, sea or ground. The company claims successful integration and launch from C-130A, P-3 and, notably UH-60 aircraft — at least one of which recently appeared for the first time in Ukraine. The company claims four hours of flight time with a range of 276 miles.

In October, Breaking Defense first reported that Anduril is working to turn the Altius-600 into a loitering munition.

Jump 20 UAS: Built by AeroVironment, the Jump 20 was selected last year by the US Army for testing to see if it can replace the RQ-7 Shadow. A fixed-wing system designed for vertical takeoff and landing, the company claims a 14-plus hour endurance rate and an operational range of 115 miles. The system comes with 30 pounds of payload space, which the company markets as multi-functional.

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From the DoD perspective, the US is getting the opportunity to test a number of drone systems in a real conflict, which allows the DoD the opportunity to learn what works best and why.

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In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.

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This is a reasonable assessment of the evolution of this situation. Perhaps the best way to counter the long term risk is for Ukraine to continue on the path of integration with Europe and NATO. Once Ukraine folds into the European defense and trade pacts, Russia’s window of opportunity closes.

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It is his [Chicken's] board and he is free to run it as he see’s fit.

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Well. I guess there's no arguing that point. I would say this is the best answer and puts the question to rest.

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In recent weeks, Russia has likely changed its approach again. Its campaign now likely primarily seeks to degrade the Ukrainian military, rather than being focused on seizing, substantial new territory. The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine.

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At this point that’s really the only option left for Russia. It’s already been painfully demonstrated to Russia their army is incapable of pulling off a major offensive on a strategic level sufficient enough to force Ukraine to capitulate. All that is left to them is ironically the same strategy the German Empire was taking against France at this exact time in 1916 at a place known as Verdun, namely to “bleed them white”. That’s basically the only card Russia has left to play short of resorting to weapons of mass destruction.

well if its official that 4 Leopards are in Ukraine, then we will soon hear that russia has destroyed 20 by the end of the week.......

I agree. Ukraine really needs to force Russia to the negotiating table in 2023. If this drags into 2024, I think all bets are off on the outcome.

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What does this look like hypothetically, with respect to territory controlled?

Is it worth ceasefire and NATO+EU membership with current territory, but thousands more dead Russians? Do they need to push Russia back completely in the East, but leave Crimea? If so, does their surrounding postwar allow them to basically starve out the Russians in Crimea if the land bridge is totally destroyed prior to ceasefire?

Just curious on opinions.

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I think this is the million dollar question. Not sure how you can agree to any ceasefire if you are Ukraine while Putin is in power. All that will do is allow him to restock and attack at some other time. He's already shown his cards.