re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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78% of Ukrainians have relatives or friends who were killed or wounded in the war, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

According to experts, this figure is similar in all regions of Ukraine - from 70% in the east to 80% in the west.

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BREAKING: The United States is "close" to approving ATACMS to Ukraine, US and European officials say - WSJ

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We have given more than every other country combined but I guess that’s to be expected. I’m not sure sending 100 more Abrams would really make a difference until Ukraine can neutralize Russia’s threat from the air. That means either more AA systems or fighters. AA systems are at a premium as there just isn’t that many Patriot systems sitting around extra to send. If fighters are going to be in the plan then they need to shite or get off the pot with it because that takes time to train and equip the Ukrainian Air Force. They will need at least 60 f-16s to make the difference they need along with all the support that those aircraft require as well as supplying them with thousands of missiles to shoot down the air threats. I don’t know which way NATO plans on going and I’m not sure they even know themselves but until the air threat is dealt with to me it’s pointless to keep sending armored vehicles to be used in combined arms operations without control of the sky. Our military would never attack if we didn’t first control the air but for some reason they expect the Ukrainians to figure it out the best they can. I fear this is going to be a slow going slugfest that goes on and on and on until that air threat is neutralized.

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What about the tube artillery, millions of rounds of tube artillery ammunition; 113s, Brads, Strykers; All manner of radars to include Patriot systems; Small arms, probably over a billion rounds in small arms ammunition; Javelins, AT4s; Anti air missiles; Ground to ground missiles and rockets; Anti ship missiles; Etc etc etc

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No question we’ve given a tremendous amount. This isn’t a we should be doing more sentiment. Just as I read the list of what Poland is getting just in this one order I can’t help but feel Ukraine is fighting this war with duct tape and a collection of mismatched surplus (and largely obsolete) nato equipment

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The U.S. is close to approving a long-range missile system for Ukraine that could shift the tide of Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders in its favor, U.S. and European officials said

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It really is Groundhog Day with a lot of these systems. HIMARS are a non starter. ABRAMS are a non starter. ATACMS are a non starter. F-16s are a non-starter.

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There's a lot of speculation around the situation with Prigozhin and Wagner, so let's clarify what we know so far:

1?? Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus. The specifics of his future are currently under Putin’s consideration. Lukashenko has hinted at the temporary nature of Prigozhin's stay, indicating a lack of interest to permanently host such individuals, but it’s likely that there will be no choice and he will have to. Without diving into speculation about the exact arrangements, the apparent aim is to neutralise Prigozhin, ‘lock him up’ outside of Russia, and the next steps will unfold with time.

2?? Wagner is being separated from Prigozhin, signaling an end to Wagner as it was previously known. There will be a dissection of the organisation: some parts will be removed, some taken, and others dismantled. This concerns Africa and Syria too. The Foreign Ministry is already actively participating in this. Wagner's involvement varied widely, so the Kremlin (read MFA, SVR and GRU) will vet Wagner’s operatives, their resources, and audit their presence, seeking whether a presence is necessary at all. We won't see a Wagner 2.0, at least the way it was.

3?? I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that's not Putin's approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn't the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

4?? Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin's detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin's struggle to reach the president and Shoigu's attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin's inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.

5?? Lastly, we're now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn't be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.

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Russian IT expert/alleged hacker detained in Kazakhstan. Wanted by both Russia and US.

Shells allegedly made in 1939 found. LINK

Not sure if this has been shared yet

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Not the kind of VIP you want to be in Russia at the moment.

Russian Gen. Sergey Surovikin was secret VIP member of Wagner, documents show.

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We've also has some costly failures as well.

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What a shock