re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

, I asked if you want to see more videos/images of the war.

---

This is a thread where those would be relevant.

The real question is do you want to post more videos/images of the war?

You getting obviously triggered because someone posted relevant information you don't like is very telling. Go outside, unplug a bit.

quote:

---

As of recently, that is definitely not the case. 95% of the videos Ukraine posts these days are FPV drone footage. The videos I posted were from the last 48 hours

---

I'll agree to disagree on this.

FWIW, some of the FPV drone footage is pretty rough, as you're watching a human-controlled robot running straight into a human being with obvious implications as the video cuts off.

quote:

---

Russian Su-34 went down today with both pilots.

---

They really were out of Patriot missiles. In February it was something like 23 aircraft. Then it dropped way off in March. Then to almost nothing in April.

Now that the pipeline is filling back up they're limbering the guns...

quote:

---

US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025,


Just two more counteroffensives to stop the Russian spread

---

1. That is a shitty attempt at making a slow the spread reference. You can do better than that.

2. If Ukraine digs in and spends the time between now and the summer of 2025 building its forces it could easily build a force to launch and sustain a major counterattack. A year is a lot of time to use ATACAMs, western cruise missiles, and drones to destroy key infrastructure targets like the 12 bridges and one tunnel which I previously pointed out several times that would isolate the Donbas from Mother Russia. It is also a lot of time to repair its equipment. Ukraine should also have taken delivery of most of if not all of the pledged 93 F16s from NATO by then in addition to the 120 combat aircraft it currently has.

quote:

---

Russia's oil and gas industry is grappling with a severe labor shortage as the nation's economy shifts to a war footing, according to a report by Bloomberg on May 6.

---

Being involved bidding to construct modular GTL plants in Russia for Ukrainian investors in 2011, I was shocked to discover that all of our skilled labor would have to come from Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, etc... Russian labor struggles to properly bolt two flanges together properly. It's that bad. The epic contractor failure photos posted on social media is usually of things built for the Sochi Winter Olympics by Russian labor.

quote:

---

And to your second point obviously they could. Is it likely? I doubt it.

---

WTF makes you doubt it? Almost every military blogger and poster on social media is saying the same thing. Ukraine is digging in. Meanwhile, Ukrainian pilots are currently training of F16s. Poland is repairing Ukrainian Leopards, Rheinmental continues to restore Leopard 1s and deliver them to Ukraine. Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and France is getting ready to send the French Foreign Legion (FFL). Putin does not attack France if the FFL deploys to Ukraine (which I highly doubt Putin is stupid enough to directly attack France) then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.

quote:

---

Russia has been doing a lot of the same type of signaling that they are "all-in" in their own way.

---

Russia has already gone all in and they only gained 86 km^2 in March and April of this year. It is not going to get better for them since 90% of the tanks it is sending to the front from factories are 1950s-1970s era T55s and T62s with new spark plugs and a new paint jobs. The good old fashioned RPG7 which Ukraine still has millions of can knock those tanks out. Russia will launch big offensives this summer and will probably make some gains but unless they change up tactics those gains will be limited and casualties will be high.


ETA: France has denied the French Foreign Legion being deployed to Ukraine. The claim that the FFL had deployed to Ukraine appears to have originated with Russia so it’s likely fake news. I have updated my post to reflect that. I will now go do boes and toes on broken glass for an hour.

quote:

---

They may have fixed this by lowering age for labor to 14

---

It all because Russia is booming.

quote:

---

Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.

---

This is the most consequential change that I have seen in the past 6 months. France and Poland have basically come out and said: "We're not gonna let Russia win."

There's a good chance they're in this thing 12-15 months from now.

And I think the 6 month "delay" from Washington really had its effect of making Europe realize that this was fundamentally their problem. We can help. But it's their backyard and they will have to lead the way.

quote:

---

Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and parts of the French Foreign Legend have deployed to Ukraine. If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.

---

Any troops sent from NATO countries to Ukraine need to be volunteers and contractors, not official Polish or French military. Lots of volunteers have gone, but they could use a bunch of F16 aircraft mechanics and experienced pilots.