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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:15 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:15 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation.
Russian elites and Kremlin officials are reportedly vying for influential positions in the Russian government ahead of the Russian presidential inauguration on May 7 to prematurely secure powerful roles in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves power around the end of his new term.
A Russian insider source, who has routinely been accurate about past Russian military command changes, claimed that the Russian military command appointed the commanders and chiefs of staff of the newly formed Leningrad and Moscow military districts (LMD and MMD).
The Kremlin continues tightening the restrictions on individuals it designates as “foreign agents,” restricting their ability to serve in government roles, likely in a disguised purge of officials who do not adequately align with the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a successful maritime drone strike against a Russian patrol boat in occupied Crimea on May 6, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly adapting their maritime drones to combat Russian defensive measures.
Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in pursuit of a Red Sea naval base for Russia, which would align Iranian and Russian Sudanese policy and create opportunities for increased Iranian-Russian cooperation in Sudan and the broader Red Sea area.
Russia has pursued a Red Sea port since 2008 to protect its economic interests in the area and improve its military posture by increasing its ability to challenge the West in the broader region, including in the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.
Russia backing the SAF would greatly benefit Iran by aligning Iranian and Russian policy and strategy in the region, which would advance Iran’s own aims of securing a Red Sea base in Sudan.
The Kremlin is additionally pursuing secondary objectives, including sidelining Ukrainian and US influence in Sudan, through its outreach to the SAF.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove, near Avdiivka, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and plan to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army in an unspecified time period.
0
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:18 pm to No Colors
quote:
This is the most consequential change that I have seen in the past 6 months. France and Poland have basically come out and said: "We're not gonna let Russia win."
The big change in the last six months is really just France.
Poland, the Baltic nations, Denmark, Finland, Czechia, the Netherlands, and the UK were really already all-in. The war has become existential for them. They've now invested so much in Ukraine that they can't afford to lose.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:24 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and parts of the French Foreign Legend have deployed to Ukraine. If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Yes, Ukraine has recently struggled to mobilize enough troops. But if French, Polish, or troops from other NATO nations can replace Ukrainian troops along the Belarus border and the Transnistria border, that would free up over 20,000 Ukrainian troops to actually fight.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine has expanded its draft class size by 200,000, and parts of the French Foreign Legend have deployed to Ukraine. If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Yes, Ukraine has recently struggled to mobilize enough troops. But if French, Polish, or troops from other NATO nations can replace Ukrainian troops along the Belarus border and the Transnistria border, that would free up over 20,000 Ukrainian troops to actually fight.
Poland is itching to do something to respond to Belarus and Russia trying to flood its borders with migrants. Poland would love nothing else than to put troops on the Ukraine-Belarus border in between Chernihiv and Gomel with a sign that says Hej Lukaszenko, nadal chcesz sie pieprzyc?
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:44 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The war has become existential for them
Posted on 5/6/24 at 7:47 pm to SirWinston
quote:
SirWinston
Poland says F**k you mate!
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But if French, Polish, or troops from other NATO nations can replace Ukrainian troops along the Belarus border and the Transnistria border, that would free up over 20,000 Ukrainian troops to actually fight.
I guess we're just blowing up the whole "we're going to hurt Russia without committing any troops" trope the dumbest people in the country loved to repeat ad nauseum.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:18 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
I guess we're just blowing up the whole "we're going to hurt Russia without committing any troops" trope the dumbest people in the country loved to repeat ad nauseum.
No, we aren't sending any troops, and we won't. But the US cannot stop others from doing so.
But yeah, the best way to prevent that would have been to send more aid to Ukraine sooner. Sending more aid is still the best way, because it actually lowers escalation risks.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 8:30 pm to No Colors
Europe had been lulled into a post-Cold War/Soviet complacency, which also changed their internal political paradigms: the enemy was thought to be "immigrants inside their countries," rather than anything external, and that led to a rise of far-right nationalists (Le Pen in France, Kaczynski in Poland...) they've been shaken out of that...
Though, as if Poland's hatred of Russia was not enough to fire them up about this, millions of Ukrainian refugees would be an extra bit of Putin screwing their economy.
For years, though, people have projected that with Germany's demographic decline zapping their power Poland would take their place in Central Europe as the leading country, and when the UK exited the EU France would take even more of a leadership role.
Though, as if Poland's hatred of Russia was not enough to fire them up about this, millions of Ukrainian refugees would be an extra bit of Putin screwing their economy.
For years, though, people have projected that with Germany's demographic decline zapping their power Poland would take their place in Central Europe as the leading country, and when the UK exited the EU France would take even more of a leadership role.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 9:30 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
But if French, Polish, or troops from other NATO nations can replace Ukrainian troops along the Belarus border and the Transnistria border, that would free up over 20,000 Ukrainian troops to actually fight. I guess we're just blowing up the whole "we're going to hurt Russia without committing any troops" trope the dumbest people in the country loved to repeat ad nauseum.
When did France and Poland become part of the USA? They are sovereign nations and can do whatever the fudge they want. They have already said that they would do it without triggering Article 5. After France is a nuclear power so Russia ain’t gonna do anything to them.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 9:32 pm to WeeWee
quote:
After France is a nuclear power so Russia ain’t gonna do anything to them.
Russia's military doctrine is to use tactical nukes whenever Russia is invaded. Cross border incursions by the Free Russia types, never got shite.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 9:51 pm to No Colors
quote:
This is the most consequential change that I have seen in the past 6 months. France and Poland have basically come out and said: "We're not gonna let Russia win."
Don’t take Macron seriously.
Posted on 5/6/24 at 10:36 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Don’t take Lima Whiskey seriously.
FIFY
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:33 am to WeeWee
The French could send at most, one to two brigades, which they could sustain for about a month or two.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 5:30 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The French could send at most, one to two brigades, which they could sustain for about a month or two
Please explain how you know this. Give specific reasons and data.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 6:21 am to Lima Whiskey
France could easily supply 5,000 - 6,000 troops and far quicker than the USA could get there. That isn't counting SF units. They have been well trained, way more than Ukraine or Russian troops.
This post was edited on 5/7/24 at 6:23 am
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:11 am to No Colors
No Colours, why do you doubt him?
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:20 am to WeeWee
quote:
WTF makes you doubt it
I explained in my comment, if you would have actually read it before getting your panties in a wad you would have understood that if the war is over in 2024 there won't be a counteroffensive in 2025
quote:
Ukraine is digging in
If they are digging in, why would they leave those positions for another counteroffensive?
quote:
If Putin does not nuke France in the near future which I highly doubt then I expect Poland will join them in sending troops into Ukraine.
Well if he doesn't do it before that, the liklihood is much higher that he will after.
quote:
Russia has already gone all in and they only gained 86 km^2 in March and April of this year. It is not going to get better for them since 90% of the tanks it is sending to the front from factories are 1950s-1970s era T55s and T62s with new spark plugs and a new paint jobs. The good old fashioned RPG7 which Ukraine still has millions of can knock those tanks out. Russia will launch big offensives this summer and will probably make some gains but unless they change up tactics those gains will be limited and casualties will be high.
You just aren't understanding that I think all of this renewed movement after very little activity in the past 6mo or so (at least comparitively) is both sides puffing their chests before going to the table. And like I also said in my previous comment that you were too angry to actually read the entirety of, them preparing to go to the table doesn't mean a deal will get done (or that we even find out publicly they went to the table at all).
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:22 am to WeeWee
quote:
When did France and Poland become part of the USA? They are sovereign nations and can do whatever the fudge they want. They have already said that they would do it without triggering Article 5. After France is a nuclear power so Russia ain’t gonna do anything to them.
Direct NATO involvement increases the likelihood that we do get involved directly, and I'm not sure how any reasonable person could argue otherwise.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 7:25 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The war has become existential for them.
The war against Russia, who can't even put away an opponent 4 weight classes down from them, is existential to multiple countries that Russia would never invade in the modern day?
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