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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:12 pm to Lee B
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:12 pm to Lee B
quote:
Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
If you look at it from a supply chain perspective, waging war on this scale is incredibly complex. Hundreds of thousands of moving parts. And all it takes is a handful of those to become a problem that gums up the whole works.
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
My guess is that we know -- within the defense intelligence community -- that Russia has a handful of Achilles heels that will soon come to the surface. And my guess is that information was conveyed in extremely convincing fashion to Congress a couple of months ago. Which is why you saw such a 180 on Capitol Hill.
I don't know what the choke point is. Or when it will start to bite. But my guess is we're about to find out.
4
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:33 pm to No Colors
I do wonder if North Korea will send Howitzers (getting them replaced through the backdoor from China) or if Iran is sending them with Shahed drones (with Iraq's Shi'ite majority now in control and in league with Iran they probably don't need them on their western front anymore)...
I also hope there's nobody left in Russia who knows how to build nukes... because we don't need a nuclear Iran
I also hope there's nobody left in Russia who knows how to build nukes... because we don't need a nuclear Iran
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:44 pm to No Colors
quote:
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
The realistic outlook is that we don't know who is on a shorter timeline.
Neither side can go on forever. I maintain that both sides are puffing up their chests before ultimately going to the table sometime before November. I really hope a peace deal is achieved and that Ukraine gets a good deal.
Relying on outside help isn't sustainable, especially during shaky economic conditions when sending aid to another country can go from "controversial" to "overwhelmingly unpopular" pretty quickly if things deteriorate.
We know Russia is pulling a not-insignificant amount of their more expensive stuff like vehicles out of storage rather than getting new stuff from the factory. We know their manufacturing capacity even on smaller equipment isn't great, but on some things its actually quite impressive.
You read one source and Ukraine is running out of men, you read another and they can call up millions more if they want. You see videos of Ukrainians happily taking Russian abandoned equipment, then you see another of someone forcibly conscripted and being dragged into a van. We are more than "shot in the dark" level informed, but because of propaganda from boht sides its not much more.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:01 pm to No Colors
You raise some interesting points but let me cut to this.
We already know from satellite imagery, which anyone can purchase, that they have at most 2.5 more years of boneyard old equipment which gets a new coat of paint and some bearings greased up. It has been in outdoor storage (not in a dry desert like our Sierra Depot) which does deteriorate steel. Gun tubes have already been removed from some fo that to replace what is already in the fight and worn out.
The real juicy part is that Russia still uses crates without even pallets. Everything is hand loaded onto rail cars, then hand offloaded to far behind the lines supply dumps than hand loaded onto trucks (which Russia is short on already and not even good ones) to get to smaller storage depots near the front. That is a lot of extra manpower needed and extra handling. Shortcomings in reliability of mechanical equipment is nothing new for Russia. It's "vaunted" T-34 tank needed complete overhaul after 125 miles even if not in the rigors of combat maneuver
quote:
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
We already know from satellite imagery, which anyone can purchase, that they have at most 2.5 more years of boneyard old equipment which gets a new coat of paint and some bearings greased up. It has been in outdoor storage (not in a dry desert like our Sierra Depot) which does deteriorate steel. Gun tubes have already been removed from some fo that to replace what is already in the fight and worn out.
The real juicy part is that Russia still uses crates without even pallets. Everything is hand loaded onto rail cars, then hand offloaded to far behind the lines supply dumps than hand loaded onto trucks (which Russia is short on already and not even good ones) to get to smaller storage depots near the front. That is a lot of extra manpower needed and extra handling. Shortcomings in reliability of mechanical equipment is nothing new for Russia. It's "vaunted" T-34 tank needed complete overhaul after 125 miles even if not in the rigors of combat maneuver
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:21 pm to No Colors
quote:
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
If you look at it from a supply chain perspective, waging war on this scale is incredibly complex. Hundreds of thousands of moving parts. And all it takes is a handful of those to become a problem that gums up the whole works.
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
My guess is that we know -- within the defense intelligence community -- that Russia has a handful of Achilles heels that will soon come to the surface. And my guess is that information was conveyed in extremely convincing fashion to Congress a couple of months ago. Which is why you saw such a 180 on Capitol Hill.
I don't know what the choke point is. Or when it will start to bite. But my guess is we're about to find out.
From reading several reports and estimates, I believe that we're still something like 6-9 months away from seeing any of those critical shortages in Russian equipment. But, yes, they will run out of artillery barrels, armored vehicles, etc.
It's why the aid passed by Congress is so critical -- because it should sustain Ukraine until that point when Russia starts to run out of some essential things. When people talk about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025 (as Jake Sullivan recently did), the only way that could possibly succeed is if Russia is indeed facing critical shortages by that time. Because a 2025 Ukrainian offensive would otherwise probably fail.
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