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re: Options Trading Thread
Posted on 1/31/24 at 6:06 pm to Jag_Warrior
Posted on 1/31/24 at 6:06 pm to Jag_Warrior
Pretty darn good day 
I have been doing iron butterlies for SPX 0 DTEs.
I have been doing iron butterlies for SPX 0 DTEs.
1
Posted on 1/31/24 at 6:47 pm to LSUtoOmaha
That’s Sosnoff’s preferred SPX 0DTE strategy, isn’t it? Is it working well for you?
Posted on 2/1/24 at 8:42 am to Jag_Warrior
It is, but he also re-centers them a few times a day and buys a 30 day diagonal hedge for a marginal gain/variance reduction which I think is just not worth it. I've only done this for 3 days so far and have profit targets set to 20-25%, which is right in line with the optimal backtested strategy. For every iron butterfly sold (usually around $1600 risked for SPX) the average yield is around $95. I'm also not doing today (Thursday) because the detailed Option Alpha studies on 0DTE trades has shown that Thursday has strongly negative PNL for all premium selling types. No idea why, but I'll trust the data
This post was edited on 2/1/24 at 8:44 am
Posted on 2/2/24 at 2:22 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Hi Guys!
@Jag. Thanks for a very clear picture of the ODTE!
Ok... So I own shares of amazon (average price 104) and had a great week. I purchased debit spreads that doubled. ETC.. At 2:20 today, I purchased a debit put spread on AMZN for March 15th, $5 spread... My thoughts is between now and the 15 of march, there will be a slight enough pull back that I make some extra.
That's about the only moves I did.
@Jag. Thanks for a very clear picture of the ODTE!
Ok... So I own shares of amazon (average price 104) and had a great week. I purchased debit spreads that doubled. ETC.. At 2:20 today, I purchased a debit put spread on AMZN for March 15th, $5 spread... My thoughts is between now and the 15 of march, there will be a slight enough pull back that I make some extra.
That's about the only moves I did.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 9:52 pm to Jag_Warrior
bought spx 4950/5000 vert for 5.20 yesterday and sold most for around 25 today
Think we get 5k spx next week. Powell on 60 minutes Sunday I heard. Maybe look for a dip Monday and put on a butterfly call 4975/5000/5025 for Friday expiry
Gotta think we are getting close to a pullback, breadth been underwhelming, but all the flows are still looking at upside til March. This will be interesting, I am beginning to get close to all cash in trading account.
I may start taking a play out of Jags book and sell some vert call spreads in the next few weeks.
Think we get 5k spx next week. Powell on 60 minutes Sunday I heard. Maybe look for a dip Monday and put on a butterfly call 4975/5000/5025 for Friday expiry
Gotta think we are getting close to a pullback, breadth been underwhelming, but all the flows are still looking at upside til March. This will be interesting, I am beginning to get close to all cash in trading account.
I may start taking a play out of Jags book and sell some vert call spreads in the next few weeks.
Posted on 2/2/24 at 9:56 pm to BCreed1
All of the flows after earnings were bullish today on AMZN, could see a slight pull back and your position makes sense if a hedge on your shares...but it wants ATHs this year. I would just ride the wave, probably gets to 200 this year
Posted on 2/3/24 at 8:18 am to thatguy777
quote:Ca-ching!
bought spx 4950/5000 vert for 5.20 yesterday and sold most for around 25 today
You bought a vertical not so far off from what I sold (4970/5000 SCV). I made it out with max profit, but just by the skin of my teeth… while you made a crazy one day return. You made an excellent trade.
Was it (mainly) a technical signal or something like moneyflow that led you into that trade?
quote:
Gotta think we are getting close to a pullback, breadth been underwhelming, but all the flows are still looking at upside til March. This will be interesting, I am beginning to get close to all cash in trading account.
I may start taking a play out of Jags book and sell some vert call spreads in the next few weeks.
In an investment account, I pulled the trigger a bit early on some longer dated SPX short call verticals. But I do agree that with these rather extreme recent moves upward, I still see that as the correct directional play. But with the VIX still relatively low, I’ve been looking to take a page out of your long playbook for awhile.
Posted on 2/3/24 at 8:52 am to thatguy777
quote:
All of the flows after earnings were bullish today on AMZN, could see a slight pull back and your position makes sense if a hedge on your shares
I'm already profit with it.
quote:
but it wants ATHs this year. I would just ride the wave, probably gets to 200 this year
I won't say I will never sell it, but I have no plans to sell my AMZN shares.
Posted on 2/3/24 at 3:44 pm to Jag_Warrior
It was mainly the fact that the market sold off after Powell Wednesday and I knew things would ramp up into big tech earnings Thursday evening and from all of the flows id seen plus the technical set up on some of those stocks I was leaning hard that those stocks would have great earnings reports. Plus the fact we are so close to 5k I felt the market just wanted to see it. Didn’t get quite there but we prob get it next week. I was able to get pretty good screen time last week and that always helps me make decisions easier. Wish I could sit at a computer more than I do and watch these things.
Posted on 2/3/24 at 5:52 pm to BCreed1
I understand you are already up on that position but things can change quick. Just giving my opinion. No point in wasting capital unless you want to hedge that position, just ride the uptrend in AMZN. You have to close that bear spread to make money which I assume you have not done. Basically, there is no point to buying a put spread on a stock in an uptrend, its a waste of money, unless you are hedging. It might work out for you this time...who knows...
Posted on 2/3/24 at 6:20 pm to thatguy777
Amazon is breaking out I think it sees 225 this year
Posted on 2/4/24 at 6:59 pm to thatguy777
quote:
Think we get 5k spx next week. Powell on 60 minutes Sunday I heard. Maybe look for a dip Monday
Futures dipping after Powell on 60 minutes. May be an opportunity to get long in the morning and look for 5k spx next week. I may go 5000/5025 vert call spread for Friday expiry. Looking for market to overshoot 5k briefly. Let’s see what happens in the am.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 8:39 am to thatguy777
quote:
You have to close that bear spread to make money which I assume you have not done. Basically, there is no point to buying a put spread on a stock in an uptrend, its a waste of money, unless you are hedging. It might work out for you this time...who knows...
Made 40% on the put spread.
This post was edited on 2/5/24 at 8:41 am
Posted on 2/5/24 at 6:39 pm to BCreed1
Well done
Posted on 2/6/24 at 8:25 am to thatguy777
quote:
May be an opportunity to get long in the morning and look for 5k spx next week. I may go 5000/5025 vert call spread for Friday expiry.
Did you get a chance to go long on the 5000/5025 with yesterday’s dip?
Posted on 2/6/24 at 3:16 pm to Jag_Warrior
Yes. I have been slowly adding the past two days, just stuck in a range for now. See what happens the rest of the week. If we just stay in this range til Friday I will probably add some for middle next week expiry on Friday.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 9:34 am to thatguy777
Good move. Looks like you should be deep ITM with today’s rally.
Posted on 2/7/24 at 12:29 pm to Jag_Warrior
Yep. Good day. Starting to scale out
Posted on 2/7/24 at 6:05 pm to thatguy777
So I closed all of my calls spreads today for nice gains and bought feb 14 5100 spx calls. Consider it a roll, playing with house money at this point. Hard to see the market dropping hard until at least NVDA earnings on the 21st I believe. May just continue to grind up for a bit
Posted on 2/8/24 at 9:21 am to thatguy777
Nice move. You were on point with this trade. 
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