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Started By
Message
re: Southern U.S. Severe Weather & Flooding: April 8-11, 2024
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:31 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:31 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Some nasty weather up in Shreveport this morning
1
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:34 am to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:
Some nasty weather up in Shreveport this morning
It’s crazy. Looking at the radar, we’ve had red or orange on us or immediately around us since 9:30 last night. And it looking like it will stay that way for most of today.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:49 am to Roll Tide Ravens
The one cell that made its way from narnia to the DFW airport woke me up this morning. Sounded like Katrina outside 
Good luck to my LA folks tm. 15% hatch window nothing to like.
Good luck to my LA folks tm. 15% hatch window nothing to like.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:28 am to LegendInMyMind
I do wonder if SPC is being a bit too aggressive pulling the trigger on a moderate risk already.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:35 am to Roll Tide Ravens
School closures coming in 3...2..1
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:38 am to purple18
It’s gonna be crappy tomorrow . I can see the schools closing. Torcon value is like 7 for the BR area.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:54 am to dukke v
quote:
It’s gonna be crappy tomorrow
quote:
dukke v
Posted on 4/9/24 at 11:34 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I do wonder if SPC is being a bit too aggressive pulling the trigger on a moderate risk already.
It is more of a forcing question. We have the high end wind probability due to the QLCS/MCS that will definitely be working it's way into the area tomorrow. That has high confidence. The main driver for the tornado threat is whether or not we will see storms develope ahead of that line, or will forccing be too strong and lead to a messier storm mode. If storms fire ahead of the main line they have a good environment to work in. That environment should be an open warm sector that hasn't been sapped with earlier storms and rain, with good moisture, strong shear, and decent CAPE.
A wind-driven Mod seems at least reasonable right now with strong tor probs being a little more conditional.
ETA: I'd keep an eye on any storms/rain development in the area today and overnight. That may limit tomorrow's ceiling, or give boundaries to worry with later on. Also, watch how CAMs handle the surface low and the shape of the trough. If that surface low deepens as it moves east and the trough can amplify and take on a negative tilt look, that'll increase the ceiling for tomorrow, I think.
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 11:39 am
Posted on 4/9/24 at 12:01 pm to dukke v
quote:
Torcon value is like 7 for the BR area.
What does this even mean? According to SPC there is a 15% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the moderate area. TWC tries to make it sound like a 70% chance with that idiotic scale they use.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 12:07 pm to Mr Roboto
I realize this. TWC overhyped
Everything.
Everything.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 12:07 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:according to the explanation of it online i think thats what it actually means which is completely idiotic.
TWC tries to make it sound like a 70% chance with that idiotic scale they use.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 12:36 pm to Pedro
The good news about tomorrow is that the area of concern is pretty well defined. The boundary we see today where the storms and rain are located should cap the northern extent of the greatest threat. The bad news is that, man is it a tricky and messy forecast.
I think the best chance for discrete/semi-discrete storms will be from any remnant outflow boundaries left from the mess that moves East today and tonight. This would be a late morning/early afternoon threat across the Moderate area. The other elevated threat for tornadoes could come if we see a broken line of storms along the front as it moves into the area. Even outside of a tornado threat, the wind probabilities on the outlook suggest 80mph+ winds with storms along that line.
The warm sector gets kind of pinched off as the system moves East into east MS/west AL, so there shouldn't be as much of a chance for storms out ahead of the line, unless we get a storm or two that become front runners. They could pose a long track tornado threat. So, farther east the main threat should be the line itself.
I think the best chance for discrete/semi-discrete storms will be from any remnant outflow boundaries left from the mess that moves East today and tonight. This would be a late morning/early afternoon threat across the Moderate area. The other elevated threat for tornadoes could come if we see a broken line of storms along the front as it moves into the area. Even outside of a tornado threat, the wind probabilities on the outlook suggest 80mph+ winds with storms along that line.
The warm sector gets kind of pinched off as the system moves East into east MS/west AL, so there shouldn't be as much of a chance for storms out ahead of the line, unless we get a storm or two that become front runners. They could pose a long track tornado threat. So, farther east the main threat should be the line itself.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
Legend, what’s your take on how severe things may get this evening and overnight in North LA? The only consensus I can pick up from various sources is torrential rain.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:27 pm to lachellie
The storms were noisy with heavy rainfall but nothing else - just south of the Red River - I44 corridor
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:31 pm to lachellie
quote:
Legend, what’s your take on how severe things may get this evening and overnight in North LA? The only consensus I can pick up from various sources is torrential rain.
Torrential rain is a given. HRRR keeps it pretty socked in with a stronger line moving through this evening with decent wind. NAM clears it out more with a better chance for scattered cells, but I don't know that I buy that, and SPC seems to lean toward the HRRR solution with wind and maybe some embedded rotations being the main threat into the night. Some areas could see pretty significant rain totals.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
I’ll be shocked in schools all across Louisiana don’t start canceling soon.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:49 pm to louisianamotocross
We haven’t had this level of threat in awhile. They’ve canceled for less not to mention the timing in the Lafayette area is the time when most kids would be arriving to school
Posted on 4/9/24 at 1:56 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 4/9/24 at 2:04 pm to louisianamotocross
Agreed, I don’t know what they are waiting for. No one wants to be first I guess. Would be nice to have time to secure a babysitter or cancel meetings and whatnot.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 2:05 pm to LSUGrrrl
Reed is starting to annoy me a bit. I understand he's playing the algorithm game, but not every day of every severe weather setup is a "TORNADO OUTBREAK!!!!!!".
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