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re: 2 year inverted yield curve
Posted on 4/22/24 at 8:48 am to SlidellCajun
Posted on 4/22/24 at 8:48 am to SlidellCajun
A short line item thesis is usually to simplistic to explain economics, but I am not an economist. I’m not sure if there is anything novel here to take away, just my own thoughts.
Most of the yield curve inversions were in periods of a secular decline in yields. Coming off of ZIRP, inversion was easy to get to.
Zero rates which put in motion a potentially secular higher rate environment might make a LOT of 2000-2020 indicators obsolete. At minimum, less reliable.
Just like value metrics have been unreliable as we progressed into ZIRP.
Most of the yield curve inversions were in periods of a secular decline in yields. Coming off of ZIRP, inversion was easy to get to.
Zero rates which put in motion a potentially secular higher rate environment might make a LOT of 2000-2020 indicators obsolete. At minimum, less reliable.
Just like value metrics have been unreliable as we progressed into ZIRP.
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