re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

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I scrolled down the SLI Facebook page last night. It’s nothing but “meet the team” and El Dorado festival posts. Meanwhile, pissant Argosy Minerals gives solid monthly updates on all progress of their commissioning plant. I’m tempted to start trolling the SLI Facebook page

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Maybe SLI should hire Argosy Minerals PR firm. Clearly, SLI's is asleep at the wheel.

SLI is now at $3.46.
SLI was a year or two ahead of everyone else, but has been slow like a bunch of academics. Now, they have some big boys coming into the game.

So what’s your prognosis? You planning to ride this out further or has Mintak just played everyone?

I’ll go ahead re-present the bull thesis for those who are feeling left out that SLI didn’t get picked for the dance.

This funding was only 2.8 out of a designated 7bln from the 2021 Infrastructure bill. There is still plenty to go around. SLI does not have a project to build yet. Do not be surprised if SLI announces some money around the time of the FID in mid-2023. Also, do not be surprised if SLI ends up receiving even more as their projects get rolling. I agree with Smack, the ESG requirements can be BS, but if they can get away with the bare minimum that does not affect business operations, it would be worth it. One company that received $100mil promised "location-based action through equity-centered community engagement efforts." With SLI already entrenched in the El Dorado community, that would not be a far stretch.

SLI still has the opportunity to be the first new US sourced DLE lithium plant that did not piss off tribes, environmentalists, or the locals in the process. The government will want to tie their name and money to it and take some credit as a win for their agenda.

A few other topics for discussion…

-The FEED study will be used to produce a NI 43-101 DFS report. “The purpose of NI 43-101 is to ensure that misleading, erroneous or fraudulent information relating to mineral properties is not published and promoted to investors.” The design criteria for the FEED study is a 90% lithium recovery rate. Since the pilot plant is the basis for this study, I feel if the pilot plant was extracting at something like 65%, the design criteria would reflect that. Even if the commercial facilities do not reach 90%, it is hard to see how their projects are not economical to a degree that is multiples higher than the current market cap.

-I think the DFS will also show positive news on costs. The cash operating costs from the 2019 PEA, $4,319/t, does not reflect any efficiencies gained in the past 3 years at the pilot plant. Along with a revised selling price estimate, I expect this project to be north of $2bln NPV. Hopefully in due time, Mintak receives a little kudos for the re-worked Lanxess split.

-On the upcoming SWA (Tetra) PFS, I hope SLI is not overly conservative on the pricing forecast. While Goldman Sachs laughably predicts the price of lithium will crash below $20k/t before the end of this year, industry experts do not see the price getting below $20k/t ever again. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this as a $5bln+ NPV project if they use a selling price estimate of around $26k/t. We will also see what effects inflation has had on the estimated CAPEX/OPEX. I am also looking forward to the next steps and timeline on this project. Government money sure could speed some things up. One would expect this announcement in 1Q2023 to move the share price a bit, but it may get dismissed again because a short report said Mintak is a conman.

-A reminder that for better or worse, all of their lithium is already spoken for between Lanxess and Koch at a market adjusted price. I find it re-assuring, but we missed out on the splashy headline of an offtake agreement.

-I know Galvanic has been discussed here before, and they are still sitting over there with 115,000 acres of Smackover brine with the highest lithium concentration known in the formation. I like to believe this is what SLI has been referring to as “Other development projects being investigated by the Company.” Dr. Robinson referenced a mysterious project on a podcast a while ago, and it has shown up in a few PRs, including the re-worked Lanxess deal where SLI gets to utilize their IP and extraction technology at the SWA (Tetra) project and “certain other sites in Arkansas, and at all project sites outside of Arkansas”. With SLI already extracting from the same brine at a high recovery rate, it seems like a no brainer to partner. The added value of this project for SLI would depend on the split with Galvanic, but it could easily be billions.

Open to hear your thoughts and feedback. The billion dollar question is what finally gets SLI to “click” in the eyes of investors. The DFS/FID? Govnt money? Actual production? For those of you hesitant or bearish on the company, what would it take for you feel like this is the lithium company to buy?

I agree with most here that management is frustratingly silent, and the “trust us” mentality they are using doesn’t really work after being accused of conmen. But the risk/reward, especially at these prices, seems too good to pass up.

TLDR: SLI may appear late to the party, but I still think she becomes the belle of the ball.

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TLDR: SLI may appear late to the party, but I still think she becomes the belle of the ball.

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Why is your PR so bad at SLI? Are y'all doing anything about that?

ill have what he's drinking.

I'm not gonna sell out here, its not like the rest of the market is raging this year to make me want the capital back. I anticipated a big drop, not this big mindyou, but like I said in December; I'm comfortable with what i have and waiting until either they produce lithium or get passed up by someone else, which still hasn't happened. 500 million market cap, still have 100 million plus at last check on cash, and they are only burning thru like 20 million also at last check. Seems like a bad time to capitulate now and take losses to me. Of course I'm also extremely cash heavy so I don't need the cash to put somewhere else, overall portfolio is still beating indexes so im cool to ride here. Every situation is different.

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but sure as hell not beating indexes…kudos to you Pendulum.

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Let me qualify it by saying barely. Neck and neck with sp, beating nasdaq, losing to dow but i dont really consider dow. Was doing better, but im getting wrecked on my tlt call about a month ago, was too early but holding. Definitely upsidedown on the time spent vs index investing opportunity cost. 3y, im still doubling nasdaq, but that isn't as impressive as what some here have I'm sure.

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With all the moving parts, it sounds like they are just bad at estimating their timelines. It is hard to tell if the processes just take longer than expected, or there was an issue. The lack of communication leads people to think there was an issue. Their solution appears to be just expanding their timeframe estimates from specific months, to quarters, to halves.

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All of the above I believe. I've mentioned this before, but they pretty much knew they needed help scaling up and thought Lanxess engineers could help with that. Don't know if it was failure or just lack of investment on Lanxess part that sent them to Koch for funding and support. I know Lanxess is risk averse and did not want to spend another dime. They still own over 7% of SLI last I checked and retained options on future projects on their site. There are rumblings locally that they are having much success, but none I've heard have been from reliable sources. Those on site are very optimistic, but can't give any details.

Where do I stand? I haven't sold or added any recently. And my DCA on my current shares is about $6.15. I haven't wanted to dump free cash in to average down, because it's been going into Tesla on dips and every time MTDR dips to the $40's I've been loading up. I think we will see prices stay fairly low for SLI until the overall economy improves or a SIGNIFICANT PR drops. I'm gambling that I can average down later and keep my current cash for bargains or established companies and less risk.

I'm obviously not as bullish as I was a year ago, but many things have changed outside of SLI. The main reason I dumped my shares last year was related to factors in the overall market, Lanxess Q3 conference, and SLI pushing back timelines. Things are pretty much what I expected and posted last year when I sold. In hindsight, I made the right move but my arse was puckered when Koch bought in and I was holding 250k less shares than just a month or so prior.

I wish a few more had followed and taken profit, but I couldn't assure anyone their wouldn't be a trigger to $20+. I had also decided to take some profit before the end of the year in case Biden raised capital gains to some stupid amount. If it makes any of y'all feel better, it still had to cut a check for over $600k to the IRS. Apparently, there is still an AMT on investment income. Mf'ers.

Long story short. Sli Guy Ry seems to know SLI pretty well. I think he's an investor but not an insider, but I could be wrong. I can't disagree with anything he stated and I don't know anymore than anyone else on the board right now.

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I wouldn't be shocked to see SLI in the $2's in the next 6-7 months absent any significant news. That's pure speculation and not a knock on SLI, but on the overall market. Pre-revenue companies are getting slaughtered and many will go bankrupt. I think SLI has enough cash to sweat it out.

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Im young enough that I have an aggressive portfolio with growth and pre-revenue companies and dumb enough to have held over the past year. I've been absolutely slaughtered.

I've been saying to myself for a while though if it drops to $2s that Im reallocating most of my position to SLI. Glad to hear you say youd be increasing your position and buying at that price. I rode the first wave from $2s to nearly $15 and hope we'll have that opportunity again even if its long term. Been long for years now anyway with this one.