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Postseason Outlook. Comparing our Resume to 2024 National Hosts
Posted on 4/20/25 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 4/20/25 at 10:33 pm
I think we’re in a pretty good position to chase down a top 8 seed. Here’s how it breaks out using last year as a guide.
2024 Top 8 seeds. Breaking out sec teams for useful comparison.
Record SEC Record RPI
1. Tennessee 46-10 (22-8) 10
2. Kentucky 39-12 (22-8) 13
3. Texas A&M 44-11 (19-11) 1
4. North Carolina
5. Arkansas 43-12 (20-10) 7
6. Clemson
7. Georgia 39-14 (17-13) 4
8. Florida State
This average SEC team who hosted last year was 42-12 (20-10) with an RPI of 7.
So, using that as a rough target, how does 2025 LSU stack up?
We’re currently 34-7 12-6 and 6th in RPI. Finishing with this sec winning % would have us finish 45-11 (20-10).
So winning out 2/3 of our SEC games gets us there. The issue is our SOS is about to increase.
Our final 4 series are
Home vs Tennessee (T-3 SEC)
Away @ A&M ( 12th SEC)
Home vs Arkansas ( 2nd SEC)
Away @ USC (15th SEC)
Just averaging 2/3 vs these closing opponents could safely land a top 8 seed.
But as we saw last season, Georgia secured a top 8 position at 17-3 with the 4 RPI. This is very gettable with our remaining SOS.
I know there’s concerns about our hitting, and our second tier bullpen arms. All of that is fair and I share the concerns.
But we are in really good position to secure one of those elusive top 8 seeds. Just have to keep at it.
2024 Top 8 seeds. Breaking out sec teams for useful comparison.
Record SEC Record RPI
1. Tennessee 46-10 (22-8) 10
2. Kentucky 39-12 (22-8) 13
3. Texas A&M 44-11 (19-11) 1
4. North Carolina
5. Arkansas 43-12 (20-10) 7
6. Clemson
7. Georgia 39-14 (17-13) 4
8. Florida State
This average SEC team who hosted last year was 42-12 (20-10) with an RPI of 7.
So, using that as a rough target, how does 2025 LSU stack up?
We’re currently 34-7 12-6 and 6th in RPI. Finishing with this sec winning % would have us finish 45-11 (20-10).
So winning out 2/3 of our SEC games gets us there. The issue is our SOS is about to increase.
Our final 4 series are
Home vs Tennessee (T-3 SEC)
Away @ A&M ( 12th SEC)
Home vs Arkansas ( 2nd SEC)
Away @ USC (15th SEC)
Just averaging 2/3 vs these closing opponents could safely land a top 8 seed.
But as we saw last season, Georgia secured a top 8 position at 17-3 with the 4 RPI. This is very gettable with our remaining SOS.
I know there’s concerns about our hitting, and our second tier bullpen arms. All of that is fair and I share the concerns.
But we are in really good position to secure one of those elusive top 8 seeds. Just have to keep at it.
7
Posted on 4/20/25 at 10:53 pm to Cryin Kelly
Finish in Top 4.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:04 am to Cryin Kelly
I think 18-12 is very realistic.
That’s around a 7-8 national seed is things stack up.
That’s around a 7-8 national seed is things stack up.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:17 am to Adam4848
quote:Umm yeah 6-6 is very realistic.
I think 18-12 is very realistic.
We need to win the series this weekend.
A&M is back healthy and hotter than a firecracker and they know they need to keep winning bad.
Going to Fayetteville and winning a series is extremely tough.
South Carolina we should absolutely win at home but I remember thinking the same thing in 2023 with State at home and they somehow snuck out that series.
If you can win the Tennesse and South Carolina series at home then you're sitting pretty.
If you can win the Tennesse stirred the sweep South Carolina and avoid getting swept at Arkansas and A&M then you can all but lock it in.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:21 am to Adam4848
Informative post thanks.
What’s the side of the bracket that gets the extra days rest? That’s the seed I want
What’s the side of the bracket that gets the extra days rest? That’s the seed I want
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:30 am to Solo Cam
Tennessee and Arkansas are in Baton Rouge. A&M and SC are on the road.
LSU should split 6-6 at worse. I could see them going 7-5 or 8-4 too if the hitting picks up and the backend of the pen keeps getting better. 18–12, 19-11, or 20-10 would be my guess with a top 10 RPI and a national seed.
LSU should split 6-6 at worse. I could see them going 7-5 or 8-4 too if the hitting picks up and the backend of the pen keeps getting better. 18–12, 19-11, or 20-10 would be my guess with a top 10 RPI and a national seed.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:37 am to VeryReauxna_ish
I think 8-4 is going to be tough the rest of the way with our schedule. 6-6 or 7-5 is more realistic. That leaves in good shape.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:53 am to Cryin Kelly
Everyone says they just want to win every series ,everyone says 2-1 is what you need to do every weekend. Everyone still melts on sunday after winning Friday and Saturday.
Every year,every series,regardless of opponent.
Every year,every series,regardless of opponent.
This post was edited on 4/21/25 at 12:54 am
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:03 am to Solo Cam
quote:quote:
I think 18-12 is very realistic.
Umm yeah 6-6 is very realistic.
We need to win the series this weekend.
A&M is back healthy and hotter than a firecracker and they know they need to keep winning bad.
Going to Fayetteville and winning a series is extremely tough.
South Carolina we should absolutely win at home but I remember thinking the same thing in 2023 with State at home and they somehow snuck out that series.
If you can win the Tennesse and South Carolina series at home then you're sitting pretty.
If you can win the Tennesse stirred the sweep South Carolina and avoid getting swept at Arkansas and A&M then you can all but lock it in.
Good stuff. Just for my curiosity, I checked on LSU's SEC records for the seasons during the Superregional era. Here are some results I found interesting.
LSU has made the NCAA Tournament with 13 SEC wins, 2 of 4 times not in the top 16, and came in second in the SEC tournament in one of those.
LSU has made the NCAA Tournament every time with 14 or 15 SEC wins once each time.
LSU has been a top 8 seed if they won 17 SEC games, 2 of 3 times. Did not host the other time.
LSU has been a top 16 seed if they won 18 SEC games, 4 of 5 times, Top 8, 2 of those 5 times, and a regional 2 seed once, though we did host for some reason..
LSU has been a top 8 seed if they won 19 SEC games, 9 of 10 times. top 16 the other time.
I modified the post after I inadvertently posted this before I was finished
I also modified it again because using the word playoffs triggered a poster, and good God, we would not want that, plus I had a line double-posted and had a few grammatical errors.
This post was edited on 4/21/25 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:27 am to mdomingue
quote:
LSU has been a top 16 seed if they won 18 or more SEC games 14 of 15 times,
What was the one year we won 18 but didn't host a regional?
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:30 am to LSUJuice
quote:
What was the one year we won 18 but didn't host a regional?
1999 but we hosted as a 2 seed.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:32 am to LSUJuice
quote:1999, but we did actually host because the one seed could not for some reason.quote:
LSU has been a top 16 seed if they won 18 or more SEC games 14 of 15 times,
What was the one year we won 18 but didn't host a regional?
This post was edited on 4/21/25 at 11:37 am
Posted on 4/21/25 at 11:36 am to TigerCub
quote:
1999 but we hosted as a 2 seed.
Right, Guess I should have said not top 16. East Carolina could not host, for some reason so the 2 seed hosted.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:13 pm to Cryin Kelly
Tennessee is playing a lot like LSU. Good, but have games where things just don’t click. We can win 2/3.
A&M is the toughest team left that we have to play. They won, on the road mind you, series at Tennessee and Arkansas. They, along with Texas, are playing the best in the conference. Getting one in CS is the goal.
Arkansas has lost 2 series in a row, they are very beatable. Winning 2/3 is very doable.
So Carolina is bad. 2/3 is very doable. Maybe even a sweep.
I see 7-5 as very make-able.
A&M is the toughest team left that we have to play. They won, on the road mind you, series at Tennessee and Arkansas. They, along with Texas, are playing the best in the conference. Getting one in CS is the goal.
Arkansas has lost 2 series in a row, they are very beatable. Winning 2/3 is very doable.
So Carolina is bad. 2/3 is very doable. Maybe even a sweep.
I see 7-5 as very make-able.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:20 pm to Cryin Kelly
Looking back the Tournamentnis kinda fricking crazy and dumb when it comes to handing out regional and national seeds.
Below are conference records and tournament seed if hosting
2024
Tenn 22-8 (1)
UK 22-8 (2)
Arkansas 20-10 (5)
A&M 19-11 (3)
UGA 17-13 (7)
Miss State 17-13 did not host
2023
UF 20-10 (2)
Ark 30-10 (3)
LSU 19-10 (5)
Auburn 17-13 (13)
UK 16-14 (12)
Tenn 16-14 (did not host)
SCar 16-14 (15)
Alabama 16-14 (16)
2022
Tenn 25-5 (1)
A&M 19-12 (5)
Ark 18-12 (did not host!!!!)
LSU 17-13 (did not host!)
Auburn 16-13 (14)
UF 15-15 (13!)
2021
Ark 22-8 (1)
Tenn 20-10 (3)
Miss State 20-10 (7)
Vandy 19-12 (4)
Ole Miss 18-12 (12)
Florida 17-13 (15)
2020- no tournament
2019
Vandy 23-7 (2)
UGA 21-9 (4)
Miss St 20-10 (6)
Ark 20-10 (5)
LSU 17-14 (13)
A&M 16-13-1 (did not host)
Ole Miss 16-15 (did not host)
So 19 wins in conference is pretty safe to be a top 8
17 good shot to be a regional host except 2022 which is wild looking back.
I think the perception of the SEC is as higher or higher than ever adding Texas and OU.
So I expect a lot of regional hosts and probably a lot of National seeds.
Below are conference records and tournament seed if hosting
2024
Tenn 22-8 (1)
UK 22-8 (2)
Arkansas 20-10 (5)
A&M 19-11 (3)
UGA 17-13 (7)
Miss State 17-13 did not host
2023
UF 20-10 (2)
Ark 30-10 (3)
LSU 19-10 (5)
Auburn 17-13 (13)
UK 16-14 (12)
Tenn 16-14 (did not host)
SCar 16-14 (15)
Alabama 16-14 (16)
2022
Tenn 25-5 (1)
A&M 19-12 (5)
Ark 18-12 (did not host!!!!)
LSU 17-13 (did not host!)
Auburn 16-13 (14)
UF 15-15 (13!)
2021
Ark 22-8 (1)
Tenn 20-10 (3)
Miss State 20-10 (7)
Vandy 19-12 (4)
Ole Miss 18-12 (12)
Florida 17-13 (15)
2020- no tournament
2019
Vandy 23-7 (2)
UGA 21-9 (4)
Miss St 20-10 (6)
Ark 20-10 (5)
LSU 17-14 (13)
A&M 16-13-1 (did not host)
Ole Miss 16-15 (did not host)
So 19 wins in conference is pretty safe to be a top 8
17 good shot to be a regional host except 2022 which is wild looking back.
I think the perception of the SEC is as higher or higher than ever adding Texas and OU.
So I expect a lot of regional hosts and probably a lot of National seeds.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 12:27 pm to mdomingue
quote:
Right, Guess I should have said not top 16. East Carolina could not host, for some reason so the 2 seed hosted.
That was back when hosting a regional was still based a lot on the monetary bid. I'm sure ECU didn't have much of a stadium back in those days.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 1:50 pm to TigerCub
1999 was the first year of the expanded 64 team postseason tournament. Back then they only seeded the top 8 teams. They didn't setup the regionals beyond 8 seeds, so I don't think they had quite as much emphasis on what the seeds were beyond that. I only say that because if you go back and look at the 1999 season, there were a lot of 2 seeds that I bet would have been top 16 seeds and would have been awarded the 1 seed in a normal year. Feels like a year where the NCAA was trying to give out some 1 seeds to some mid major teams and then the big boys were hosting. Southern Cal hosted and won their regional as a 2 seed with Pepperdine in that regional. LSU was a 2 seed in their regional despite finishing 3rd in the SEC and they sent us East Carolina as a 1 seed. Tulane got a 1 seed that year and got sent to Auburn, who was a 2 seed but was hosting and finished 4th in the SEC.
Basically it was a lot of "feel good seedings" for small schools who then got to travel to the location that would have probably been the top 16 seed in a normal world.
Basically it was a lot of "feel good seedings" for small schools who then got to travel to the location that would have probably been the top 16 seed in a normal world.
Posted on 4/21/25 at 2:01 pm to mdomingue
quote:
LSU has made the playoffs with 13 SEC wins 2 of 4 times. Not in top 16, came in second in SEC tournament in one of those.
LSU has made the playoffs every time with 14 or 15 SEC wins once each time.
LSU has made the playoffs every time with 14 or 15 SEC wins once each time.
LSU has been a top 8 seed if they won 17 SEC games, 2 of 3 times. Did not host the other time.
LSU has been a top 16 seed if they won 18 SEC games, 4 of 5 times, Top 8 2 of those 5 times, and a regional 2 seed once though we did host for some reason..
LSU has been a top 8 seed if they won 19 SEC games 9 of 10 times. top 16 the other time.
Good God man, please edit this. Also, please don't call it "playoffs"...
Posted on 4/21/25 at 5:02 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
They, along with Texas, are playing the best in the conference. Getting one in CS is the goal.
The expectation not the goal. The goal is to win every game possible
Posted on 4/21/25 at 5:18 pm to Cryin Kelly
quote:Finishing 17-13 will not guarantee us a national seed at all. It’s a new league this year so even though 17-13 was good enough for a top 4 spot in the SEC in the past, 17 wins won’t put us in the top 4 or 5 of the SEC this year.
Just averaging 2/3 vs these closing opponents could safely land a top 8 seed.
But as we saw last season, Georgia secured a top 8 position at 17-3 with the 4 RPI. This is very gettable with our remaining SOS.
At 17 wins there would be at least 4 SEC teams ahead of us. Warren Nolan has 6 teams other than us finishing with 18 or more wins in the SEC and then OOC you have OSU, Clemson, UNC and FSU that are in position for top 8 seeds now.
We need 19 wins to feel safe. That’s only 7-5 so not too much to ask with Tennessee and Arkansas at home
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