re: Black Monday - Iran says that it has fired first wave of Ballistic Missiles at Israel.

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Gonna be ugly

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More unfulfilled doomcasting. Oh well, there's always DWAC.

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More unfulfilled doomcasting. Oh well, there's always DWAC

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Yeah, it's totally unreasonable to expect war breaking out in the ME to cause the market to drop. Investors love uncertainty and expensive oil.

I'm disappointed that stocks aren't on sale.

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More unfulfilled doomcasting. Oh well, there's always DWAC

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Further proof you dont have severe tds

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Iran sent a frickton of drones in an attempt to overwhelm Israel's defense

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Is that accurate? I thought consensus was this was like their retaliation after the assassination in Jan 2020 - telegraphed and calibrated to be "something" without actually really being anything.

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Is that accurate? I thought consensus was this was like their retaliation after the assassination in Jan 2020 - telegraphed and calibrated to be "something" without actually really being anything.

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The 2020 response was something like a dozen or so missiles hitting the edges of two US air bases (along with Iran reportedly contacting Iraq just before it happened, because Iraq would notify the US to be on alert). I think an empty helicopter got its paint chipped.

They sent hundreds of drones and over 100 ballistic missiles from four different countries (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen) at Israel. That's a massive effort well over 2020's Operation Martyr Soleimani. No one had ever tried sending that many drones at Israel before and the missiles were timed to be there just after the drones arrived.

Occam's Razor.

It may well be that had the drone attack worked and all of the missiles landed, they would have been satisfied with "see what you get!?!" but I sincerely doubt it. This is a country whose leadership has pledged to "wipe Israel off the map," they wouldn't have put such a tremendous offensive effort in play just to say "bygones" afterwards (unless it failed spectacularly).

It not another military that worries me. It's the harsh reality of our open border and people chanting death to America (doing it today too.).


Somewhere there is a cell that will be called into action. Take out a power grid and the USA will be hurting.

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I'm disappointed that stocks aren't on sale.

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Are you happier now?

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I think it's more severe than you are recalling.

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How many people (regardless of country of origin) were killed? How many were even wounded?

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On 8 January 2020, shortly after midnight, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi reportedly received a message from Iran indicating that the response to General Soleimani's death had "started or was about to start". Exact locations were not disclosed, but U.S. officials later confirmed their troops had adequate advanced warning of the attack and had taken shelter. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, later clarified that half an hour before the missiles were fired, Iran informed the Iraqi Prime Minister that they would strike a base in Iraq without saying which base was the target. Hajizadeh said the Iranians gave forewarning to the Iraqi government out of "respect".

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It's not very serious if they are warning others ahead of time.

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The exact number of missiles launched is disputed. A spokesman for U.S. Central Command said fifteen missiles were fired; ten hit the Al-Asad airbase, one hit the Erbil base, and four failed to reach their targets. U.S. defense secretary Mark Esper later gave a similar estimate, saying 16 short-range missiles had been launched from three locations within Iran, with 11 striking al-Asad (instead of the prior estimate of 10). Kurdish security officials told CNN that at least two targeted Erbil: one hit Erbil International Airport and did not explode, the other landed about 20 miles west of Erbil. According to the Iraqi military, 22 missiles were fired between 1:45 a.m. and 2:15 a.m. local, 17 toward Al-Asad base and 5 at Erbil.

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Even taking Iran's number (and they have been known to fudge a bit), that's not even a quarter of just the missiles (much less the bomb-strapped drones) sent against Israel.

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And I think you are assessing the current one as more severe than it was.

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I'm assessing that they thought their drones were going to be more impactful and that they didn't realize there would be a coalition of defensive fire from other countries.

If they were going to send a message like in 2020, they would have simply flown a dozen or two drones in from Lebanon or Syria and aimed them at some government building. Instead, they sent a ridiculously large contingent of missiles and drones in the middle of the night.

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You tell me.

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That's not an answer. I asked a legitimate question. If you don't know the answer, just say so.

From the attack on Israel, one young girl was severely injured, many others were slightly injured (shrapnel, falling while running for shelter, etc). The issue with the injury aspect is that when they landed bombs near the US bases, they did so knowing these were military personnel (ie: combatants or near/potential combatants). In the attack on Israel, they fired indiscriminately (largely because their targeting over distances that far is utter crap, but very likely they consider any dead or injured Israeli to be worthwhile).

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They essentially telegraphed it the same way for this Israel attack - particularly given from how far away it was. I mean, there were articles all week about an impending attack.

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Meh. It's not an attack until it's an attack. "Impending" can be a range on a spectrum from "they're in the air" to "I heard from a friend, who heard from a friend, who heard from a friend...". They called Iraq when they fired their 2020 missiles, but they didn't contact anyone this weekend (at least that we know of yet). You can claim their sending missiles over such a long distance is a telegraph (and it is, in a way), but it's nowhere near as purposeful as a warning phone call. They're simply not the same.

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Could be. IMO, it's a bunch of showy stuff that everyone knew wasn't going to be all that impactful.

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You and I see this from the exact opposite angles. I see 2020 as the dog-n-pony show. They lobbed a few missiles within a range where they have reasonable targeting and made sure US bases ended up on high alert. If they were wanting to do that with Israel, there are far easier methods.

1. Fire a dozen or so missiles from Lebanon or Syria. From that range their targeting is far better so they could have been more likely to restrict potential hits to military targets.
2. Send over a few dozen drones from Lebanon or Syria to target government installations. Again, the targeting is better and at such a low altitude (they were flying something like 50-100ft above the ground, I think), the missile defense system would have been worthless.
3. Call Jordan to let them know they are sending missiles and drones through their airspace (instead, they issued a blanket warning to anyone who aided in Israel's defense, which isn't sitting well with Abdullah, even though there is a large Palestinian population in Jordan), knowing Jordan would quickly get word to Israel through allies (thus mitigating possible civilian casualties).

Any one of those would have been clearer as only a "message", they did none thus I see it as being more than simple a message.