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BLS Jobs adds 142k .5 cut odds raised to 59%

Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:03 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
86641 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:03 am
142K jobs added last month. Below forecasts. But unemployment rate edged lower to 4.2%

June and July payroll gains revised lower by a combined 86K.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
10798 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:07 am to
How did it shake out on full-time vs part-time jobs?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
86641 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:12 am to
quote:

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 million in August. This measure is up from 4.2 million a year earlier. These individuals would have preferred fulltime employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.6 million, changed little in August. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.4 million, was little changed in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 367,000 in August. (See Summary table A.) Establishment Survey Data Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 over the month.

Employment growth in August was in line with average job growth in recent months but was below the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months.

In August, job gains occurred in construction and health care. (See table B-1.) Construction employment rose by 34,000 in August, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, heavy and civil engineering construction added 14,000 jobs, and employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+14,000).

Health care added 31,000 jobs in August, about half the average monthly gain of 60,000 over the prior 12 months. In August, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+24,000) and hospitals (+10,000). -2-
Posted by evil cockroach
27.98N // 86.92E
Member since Nov 2007
8355 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:14 am to
quote:

.5 cut odds raised to 59%
just when you thought inflation was over...
Posted by AUin02
Member since Jan 2012
4409 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:15 am to
That revision represents more than 25% of jobs added in the initial June and July reports

Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
10798 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:15 am to
So what’s the answer to my simple question?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
86641 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:15 am to
Now the odds are back down

This isnt a good report especially with the 86k revision downward

Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
86641 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:19 am to
quote:

So what’s the answer to my simple question?


Go read the report
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
10798 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:20 am to
Just saw on ZH:

Full-time jobs: -438k
Part-time jobs: +527k

Jobs for native born Americans: -1.325 million.
Jobs for foreign born: +635k

Holy shite.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
55318 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:23 am to
Jobless claims (both initial and continuing) have dropped as well. More people working combined with Q2 GDP coming in strong isn't the kind of environment you want to cut rates in, which makes next week's inflation number even more important.

Of note though is that once again the brunt of jobs are in healthcare and government. With a lot of healthcare coming from government funding (ala Medicare/Medicaid), those healthcare jobs could be thought of as quasi-government. Retail and Manufacturing, cornerstones of considering jobs within an economic health aspect, continue to drop (this is especially disturbing when looking at it in consideration of GDI and the widening trade deficit seeming to show a growing dependence on foreign manufacturing).

All that said, I still don't think we get anything greater than .25 unless we get something extraordinary like a .3 or greater drop in Inflation next week.
This post was edited on 9/6/24 at 8:25 am
Posted by Civildawg
Member since May 2012
9711 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 8:32 am to
That is an almost unbelievable statistic. Just a sad outlook for citizens
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
86641 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 9:16 am to
100k of these jobs are from birth death model which is NOT reliable

The revisions will be hilarious next month

UE down cause of PT clearly a sign of strength
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89201 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

Just saw on ZH:
Full-time jobs: -438k
Part-time jobs: +527k

Jobs for native born Americans: -1.325 million.
Jobs for foreign born: +635k Holy shite.


This is after July was up 448K for full time workers and down 325k for part time workers. Household survey is notoriously volatile but the trend is still worth noting as full time is down YoY.

As for nativity, it’s pretty much following the civilian labor force for each group.

This probably tells a bigger story about immigration- legal and illegal- than it does anything else.

Ultimately, things are definitely slowing down.
Posted by boogiewoogie1978
Little Rock
Member since Aug 2012
18287 posts
Posted on 9/7/24 at 10:30 am to
All the metrics show the economy is strong. You don't know what you're talking about.

-Biden Administration
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