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Started By
Message
re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:28 am to SquatchDawg
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:28 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
It is this month!
Yes it is
0
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:30 am to slackster
This was to be expected. It was replacing a super low number from last years reading
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:33 am to slackster
quote:
will when you get an actual slowdown in the economy. The inconvenient truth for everyone is that we need a little pain to get inflation under control and we just haven’t had pain.
The uncomfortable truth is that we are still guided by MMT zealots who will continue to devalue fiat. And that isn’t changing anytime soon.
Unless Milei becomes a U.S. citizen and we change the constitution.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:50 am to slackster
I've said for a while now that we're more likely to see another hike before we see a cut, I continue to stand by that statement.
It doesn't matter how warped the job numbers are, as long as the actual job creation is ~200k or more and both initial and continued jobless claims remain low. These combine to tell us that workers are easily able to job-jump to other positions if they get laid off.
Those workers then do not need to change their spending habits, meaning the economy roars on. They are also continuing to create liquidity through increasing debt, just like the federal government.
As long as this is going on, inflation is going to keep being resistant to the efforts of rates at their current level.
Going forward, we're getting into the more expensive summer blends of gasoline, gasoline demand goes up in the spring and summer and OPEC is likely to keep their production rates down at their next meeting. Since the price of oil (and gasoline) impacts the price of everything, more inflation is coming.
All of this is why I've said the "soft landing" rhetoric is about as reliable and accurate as was the talk of inflation being "transitory".
It doesn't matter how warped the job numbers are, as long as the actual job creation is ~200k or more and both initial and continued jobless claims remain low. These combine to tell us that workers are easily able to job-jump to other positions if they get laid off.
Those workers then do not need to change their spending habits, meaning the economy roars on. They are also continuing to create liquidity through increasing debt, just like the federal government.
As long as this is going on, inflation is going to keep being resistant to the efforts of rates at their current level.
Going forward, we're getting into the more expensive summer blends of gasoline, gasoline demand goes up in the spring and summer and OPEC is likely to keep their production rates down at their next meeting. Since the price of oil (and gasoline) impacts the price of everything, more inflation is coming.
All of this is why I've said the "soft landing" rhetoric is about as reliable and accurate as was the talk of inflation being "transitory".
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:03 am to Motownsix
quote:
The logic is pretty simple. News I agree with is real. News I disagree with is fake.
Yep.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:04 am to Bard
quote:
I've said for a while now that we're more likely to see another hike before we see a cut, I continue to stand by that statement.
I doubt it. Run the numbers on US Govt interest expense. They're hooped. Powell's hands are tied. He gets to decide how he's going to lose the long end but he's losing the long end either way. Permanent SLR exemption for banks is coming but it's just a stopover on the way to yield curve control, monetization and face ripping inflation.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:09 am to Bard
quote:
It doesn't matter how warped the job numbers are, as long as the actual job creation is ~200k or more and both initial and continued jobless claims remain low. These combine to tell us that workers are easily able to job-jump to other positions if they get laid off.
Uh, the job numbers are being driven by illegal aliens filling low paid part-time jobs. If you look at full-time jobs and jobs held by Americans the picture ain’t great. We’ve lost a healthy number of full time jobs over the last year or so.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:13 am to slackster
quote:
CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+
and if we do eliminate student loans, that will throw more money into the economy increasing more pressure on inflation
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:16 am to Art Blakey
quote:
I doubt it. Run the numbers on US Govt interest expense. They're hooped. Powell's hands are tied. He gets to decide how he's going to lose the long end but he's losing the long end either way. Permanent SLR exemption for banks is coming but it's just a stopover on the way to yield curve control, monetization and face ripping inflation.
I don't disagree as to Powell's hands being tied, I just think that how he's handled this thus far he's more likely to understand that the results of raising rates are going to be "less worse" than continuing to try to thread the eye of the needle.
Already we're hearing talks about the possibility of no cuts this year (this after going from 3 cuts around the beginning fo the year to 2, now talk is bouncing between one and none/continued-pause). Within 2 months (if inflation continues to creep up) we'll likely be hearing talk of possible rate hikes and cuts for this year being completely off the table.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:21 am to Bard
Motor Vechicle and shelter were the factors for this high report. Motor Vechicle made up the biggest portion
Otherwise we were poised for a big positive reaction
Just incredbile
Otherwise we were poised for a big positive reaction
Just incredbile
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:25 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Motor Vechicle and shelter were the factors for this high report. Motor Vechicle
quote:
Just incredbile
You spell like a 10 year old.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:27 am to frogtown
Im sorry that upsets you
Posted on 4/10/24 at 9:51 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Uh, the job numbers are being driven by illegal aliens filling low paid part-time jobs. If you look at full-time jobs and jobs held by Americans the picture ain’t great. We’ve lost a healthy number of full time jobs over the last year or so.
Some yes, some no.
This is why I included the points of jobless claims. Initial claims have remained flat since the beginning of 2022, continuing claims rose slightly since 2022, but have been flat since last summer. Combine that with the Unemployment rate and we see that IF Americans are losing their jobs en masse, they are either getting replacement jobs quickly or they are somehow living without making jobless claims or going onto other sorts of government assistance.
The problem with inflation will continue as long as people are employed at high levels. Wage growth is chasing inflation and inflation is being driven (to some extent) by wage growth (and all of this, along with consumer and federal debt creation, is working together to keep GDP strong). Eventually that system breaks and when it does, we'll see that reported in the Unemployment and Jobless Claims numbers. When that happens, the economy will slow (the longer workers are out of work, the more the economy will slow). Once it slows enough, rates will be cut.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:11 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Motor Vechicle and shelter were the factors for this high report.
With housing prices remaining sluggishly high and interest rates staying high, rent demand will continue to drive rent prices up. This means shelter should continue to increase due to OER double-dipping in rent.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:19 am to Bard
Well maybe I misread it, but the suggestion in your post seemed to be that the jobs numbers are strong and healthy, and that is simply untrue. All you have to do is look beyond the headline and see what “jobs” are being created and which are being lost. Not saying the sky is falling, but a strong jobs market and economy is not built on low paying part time jobs.
I agree with the rest of your post regarding inflation.
I agree with the rest of your post regarding inflation.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:25 am to FLObserver
Dam Covid response(checks/Unemployment benefits etc) by government has screwed us years to come. The only positive is maybe this can get Biden out of office.
____________
100% agree on both points. Bad part is that it apparently puts Trump back in. We all know he can't balance a checkbook. Gloomy days ahead.
____________
100% agree on both points. Bad part is that it apparently puts Trump back in. We all know he can't balance a checkbook. Gloomy days ahead.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:32 am to frogtown
quote:
You spell like a 10 year old.
Don't get pissy. He didn't blame it on Kemp.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:43 am to Bard
quote:
With housing prices remaining sluggishly high and interest rates staying high, rent demand will continue to drive rent prices up. This means shelter should continue to increase due to OER double-dipping in rent.
They get the rent info from the survey
They ask ppl what they think they can rent their homes for. Everyone over values it. That arent using real data
Posted on 4/10/24 at 11:32 am to KWL85
Fed keeping rates too low for too long.
PPP giving "extra" cash to many wealthy or savvy individuals that leveraged it with low interest loans.
ARPA giving local govt cash that threw out fiscal responsibility.
Jobs and Tax Act of 2017 that enabled 100% accelerated deductions and QOZ.
Increased govt spending with IIJA, CHIPS, Foreign Aid, etc.
It'll take some time to get back to "normal". Lots of cash still available to deploy if opportunities increase.
PPP giving "extra" cash to many wealthy or savvy individuals that leveraged it with low interest loans.
ARPA giving local govt cash that threw out fiscal responsibility.
Jobs and Tax Act of 2017 that enabled 100% accelerated deductions and QOZ.
Increased govt spending with IIJA, CHIPS, Foreign Aid, etc.
It'll take some time to get back to "normal". Lots of cash still available to deploy if opportunities increase.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 11:41 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Well maybe I misread it, but the suggestion in your post seemed to be that the jobs numbers are strong and healthy, and that is simply untrue. All you have to do is look beyond the headline and see what “jobs” are being created and which are being lost. Not saying the sky is falling, but a strong jobs market and economy is not built on low paying part time jobs.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. You don’t get stubborn services inflation without a solid economy and growing wages.
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