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Started By
Message
Great Depression averted thanks to Japanese Hedge Fund's sacrifice
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:11 pm
5
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:17 pm to saintforlife1
Explain this like I'm 10.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:21 pm to WM88
Carry trade unwound/forced liquidations. Hasn’t happened since…. August of last year 
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:28 pm to saintforlife1
I’m getting annoyed at this Spencer dude.
He appears to be a left wing influencer (like Harry sisson) who popped up out of the blue in late March and gained 100k twitter followers.
Now I see his face all over my Twitter feed.
He’s not an economist. He’s not a broker or financial advisor. Nobody knows where he came from or what his day job is.
He’s an influencer.
He appears to be a left wing influencer (like Harry sisson) who popped up out of the blue in late March and gained 100k twitter followers.
Now I see his face all over my Twitter feed.
He’s not an economist. He’s not a broker or financial advisor. Nobody knows where he came from or what his day job is.
He’s an influencer.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:41 pm to saintforlife1
Arigato gozaimasu
Posted on 4/9/25 at 7:48 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I have no idea who he is. Today he popped up on my Twitter feed for the first time with that tweet and thought it was funny.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:08 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
Arigato gozaimasu
Thank you for the flashback of walking out of noodle shops in Japan
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:It's not hard to chase down. He evidently runs a very small global macro hedge fund. (Website says $78M AUM). Even a "small" fund like this probably runs over $1B.
He’s not an economist. He’s not a broker or financial advisor. Nobody knows where he came from or what his day job is.
Some of his comments are fair and worth at least considering:
quote:
I’m scrolling through People’s Daily - the Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper - and how they choose to push their propaganda.
They’re not even mentioning negotiations.
They’re not even mentioning deescalation.
They’re not even mentioning reducing tariffs.
Instead, the front page is talking about building an alliance with neighboring countries.
That is interesting to know.
quote:
NASDAQ call volume spiked minutes before the 90 day tariff pause was announced.
Insiders grifting again, just like with Trumpcoin.
quote:
If push really came to shove, and France truly had to choose a side, which side do you think they would continue to work with?
Selling Cartier bangles to New York? Or receiving medical equipment from Shanghai?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:45 pm to WM88
quote:A large hedge fund had the strategy of doing a highly leveraged relative value trade which caused them to be very long US Treasuries. It got blown up and the were forced to reverse out of it, which meant they had to sell a shite ton of bonds...which the market couldn't absorb in such a short period...which caused yields to blow out at historic speeds...which caused Trump to cave.
Explain this like I'm 10.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:49 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
which caused Trump to cave.
Caved while putting 125% tariff on China.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 8:53 pm to Mushroom1968
quote:Sure.
Caved while putting 125% tariff on China.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:03 pm to Big Scrub TX
He’s a China shill. Probably being paid by CCP if we’re being honest
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:09 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
large hedge fund had the strategy of doing a highly leveraged relative value trade which caused them to be very long US Treasuries. It got blown up and the were forced to reverse out of it, which meant they had to sell a shite ton of bonds...which the market couldn't absorb in such a short period...which caused yields to blow out at historic speeds...which caused Trump to cave.
I don’t think the 10y caused him to cave. I don’t even think he caved, and I’ve been pretty critical of the rollout.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:15 pm to slackster
quote:Really? Say more.
I don’t think the 10y caused him to cave. I don’t even think he caved, and I’ve been pretty critical of the rollout.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:17 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Really? Say more.
Exactly!! He raised tariff on china125% and caved!!
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:27 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Really? Say more.
He’s been willing to pause a few times now on tariffs and I didn’t consider either of the other times as caving. Don’t see any reason to change my tune this time.
As far as the 10y, it’s not like the pause itself would do anything concrete to stop its rise.
It’s a cool narrative but I don’t believe it to be factual just like I called out the ignorant ideas Trump was trying to cause a recession to refinance $9T a lower long term rates.
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:35 pm to saintforlife1
So when does Frontline (PBS) do a story on Trump's tariff wars?
Posted on 4/9/25 at 9:42 pm to saintforlife1
I think he’s essentially right assuming he’s being sarcastic about the Great Depression bit. Last night it was obvious that something nasty was happening in the bond market. I was VERY anxious something major was going to happen today based on the volatility. Today was more muted than I expected in the morning though.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 4/9/25 at 10:43 pm to Big Scrub TX
CNN
I think you're right
The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised those concerns directly to Trump Wednesday in a meeting that preceded the pause announcement, underscoring concerns shared by White House economic officials who had briefed Trump on the accelerating selloff in the US Treasury market earlier in the day.
I think you're right
The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised those concerns directly to Trump Wednesday in a meeting that preceded the pause announcement, underscoring concerns shared by White House economic officials who had briefed Trump on the accelerating selloff in the US Treasury market earlier in the day.
This post was edited on 4/9/25 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 4/9/25 at 11:59 pm to slackster
quote:
As far as the 10y, it’s not like the pause itself would do anything concrete to stop its rise.
It is if it were the Japanese doing it directly and on purpose:
LINK
quote:
I called out the ignorant ideas Trump was trying to cause a recession to refinance $9T a lower long term rates.
I think you're wrong about that, at least in the wrong direction. IMO, here is the plan:
inflationary (but long-term good) tariffs
deflationary energy (end the war)
middle class affordability - get rates to go way down (partially for refinancing the debt, but more for homes and the like)
If Japan as a state actor actually weaponized the 10 year last night, then I think the only fair thing to say is that he caved to that move.
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