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Started By
Message
Is October when the bottom falls out of the market?
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:21 am
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:21 am
It's clear that the markets have been fighting for a long time to stay afloat, but each month reality seeps a bit more in. My gut tells me during October a number of things are going to happen that will send shockwaves:
- Inflation number still remains high
- Fed announces another big rate hike
- Companies report pretty bad Q3 earnings
I have read that the big banks are going to let go of a lot of finance bros, and the rumblings seem to be that some of the bigger tech companies (Google, Facebook) might be prepping to draw down staff significantly as well. I predict all those are going to finally break this pseudo stalemate / slow burn.
So far every time the Fed has increased rates there's been a day or two of panic and the market recovers 90% of its losses. The most recent time was the first time it stayed depressed, and next month feels like it will be a knockout punch.
- Inflation number still remains high
- Fed announces another big rate hike
- Companies report pretty bad Q3 earnings
I have read that the big banks are going to let go of a lot of finance bros, and the rumblings seem to be that some of the bigger tech companies (Google, Facebook) might be prepping to draw down staff significantly as well. I predict all those are going to finally break this pseudo stalemate / slow burn.
So far every time the Fed has increased rates there's been a day or two of panic and the market recovers 90% of its losses. The most recent time was the first time it stayed depressed, and next month feels like it will be a knockout punch.
17
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:25 am to Thundercles
Usually does just the opposite of what everyone thinks.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:27 am to Thundercles
I don’t believe so
LINK
quote:
October is known as a bear market killer, as 6 of the past 17 bear (or near bear markets) since WWII ended in this month.
Could it happen again in 2022?
LINK
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:30 am to Thundercles
With all the bad news out there like you illustrated, I would lean towards the stock market going up in October. The market does not care about news that has already been announced, and almost always comes out of a bear market when news is still terrible.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:53 am to Thundercles
quote:
My gut tells me during October a number of things are going to happen that will send shockwaves:
- Inflation number still remains high
- Fed announces another big rate hike
- Companies report pretty bad Q3 earnings
1. Probably.
2. So they will do a special announcement? The next meeting isn't until November, unless I misunderstood their calendar.
3. Maybe. Some might miss but others may beat guidance.
Usually when everyone and their mom is calling for something to happen (i.e. the market to 'crash'), it usually does NOT happen.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 10:55 am to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
The market does not care about news that has already been announced, and almost always comes out of a bear market when news is still terrible.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 11:27 am to Thundercles
These posts are almost daily now, time to start buying
Posted on 9/28/22 at 11:57 am to Thundercles
The Fed's announcement isn't until Nov. 1-2. If they raise the expected .5 but surround that with bearish statements (like expecting CPI to still be in the 8%+ range) or raise it more than .5, we'll definitely see the market continue downward in November.
We know almost every major company has revised their Q3 down already. There are a lot of big names who won't be releasing until the end of the month (Alphabet, Coke, UPS, Exxon, McDs, etc). Depending on how bad those are, that's going to have a big impact on how the market reacts.
The best thing we could hope for is to see September CPI drop below 8% and Unemployment go above 4%. I think this would send a strong enough signal to the Fed that a .5 is all that's required and tone down any bearish comments from them, which would allow for some rebounding (and a possible return to generally upward movement, at least until/unless Q4 estimates come out and they are far lower than expected).
We know almost every major company has revised their Q3 down already. There are a lot of big names who won't be releasing until the end of the month (Alphabet, Coke, UPS, Exxon, McDs, etc). Depending on how bad those are, that's going to have a big impact on how the market reacts.
The best thing we could hope for is to see September CPI drop below 8% and Unemployment go above 4%. I think this would send a strong enough signal to the Fed that a .5 is all that's required and tone down any bearish comments from them, which would allow for some rebounding (and a possible return to generally upward movement, at least until/unless Q4 estimates come out and they are far lower than expected).
Posted on 9/28/22 at 11:13 pm to Thundercles
quote:
My gut tells me during October a number of things are going to happen that will send shockwaves:
Anything with better predictive value than gut?
Please post your gastrointestinal trends so we can test some correlations.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 11:19 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
These posts are almost daily now, time to start buying
Until the Fed pivots, there will be no up.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 6:57 am to Thundercles
The is a Jewish Shemitah year and something always bad happens to the market. research it.
The Shemitah the 7th year of a 7 year cycle.
The Shemitah the 7th year of a 7 year cycle.
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 7:11 am to I Love Bama
quote:
Until the Fed pivots, there will be no up.
That may not happen until 2024, depending on how the market reacts next year. The Fed has stated they want the Fed Fund Rate to be at 3.8 by the end of 2023. A ~.5 increase over the course of a year is going to seem like mana from heaven after these successive .75 increases in 2022. I think the market will be up with the first pause of 2023.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 9:04 am to Bard
Might be starting the capitulation bottom today....
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:58 pm to GeneralLee
Dow may hit sub-29k. 
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:00 pm to Bard
quote:
The Fed's announcement isn't until Nov. 1-2
Might be biggest bet in finance history
2 sides:
Side 1 - With everything falling apart in the stock market and earnings in the tank a belief that the Fed will finally back off and maybe not hike 75 basis points or even 50
Side 2 - Belief that the Fed will continue with its final rate hike of 75 which they telegraphed and continue the tightening carnage
If side 1 levers up and looks for the market to go up, and side 2 is right .... apocalypse now 3.0
ETA: if you’re gunna downvote tell me why you think I’m wrong you pussies
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:10 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
These posts are almost daily now, time to start buying
This board has lost its collective mind recently. Lots of serious discussion about things that would basically end civilized society in the US as if it is not only realistic but almost a certainty.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:16 pm to MusclesofBrussels
I don’t post on here often but, out of curiosity, is it now impossible to have a market that falls like what occurred pre-Great Depression?
This isn’t doom and gloom, but an honest question regarding whether people believe it actually can happen again.
It did already happen once.
This isn’t doom and gloom, but an honest question regarding whether people believe it actually can happen again.
It did already happen once.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:48 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
Side 1 - With everything falling apart in the stock market and earnings in the tank a belief that the Fed will finally back off and maybe not hike 75 basis points or even 50
Side 2 - Belief that the Fed will continue with its final rate hike of 75 which they telegraphed and continue the tightening carnage
They've been adamant about hitting 3.4 this year, that's going to require at least a .5 increase in November. They've pretty much painted themselves into that corner.
What could happen is they go .75, but then right after the October numbers come out the have a special meeting and drop it by .25 (but that's ultimately useless because there's such a short timeframe between those two events that the extra .25 wouldn't have even disseminated out to the market yet).
We still have a long way until the November meeting and there's absolutely nothing to indicate things will be better (for the economy nor market) by that time, but likely to be much worse. I think that pain is what they're expecting to see and if it happens as they expect then that takes .75 off the table completely.
quote:
ETA: if you’re gunna downvote tell me why you think I’m wrong you pussies
Welcome to my world. (that statement alone deserved my upvote)
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:55 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I don’t post on here often but, out of curiosity, is it now impossible to have a market that falls like what occurred pre-Great Depression?
This isn’t doom and gloom, but an honest question regarding whether people believe it actually can happen again.
To some here, anything other than the always-buy-because-the-market-always-goes-back-up philosophy means you're a fool trying to perfectly time the bottom.
Their absolutism is like trying to convince a sick 3yr old to take their medicine.
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