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What % of you have beat the S&P 500 or Nasdaq over the last 15 to 20 years?
Posted on 4/16/25 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 4/16/25 at 7:13 pm
I can say I for sure haven't. I even get surprised when people can make money trading when choosing individual stocks if they stay away from mega-tech and other $200 Bil+ market cap companies. Do you think there is a single individual on this board that has beat S&P 500 or Nasdaq over last 15 to 20 years?
And since investing is all about forward looking. What do you think performs better in the future, S&P 500 or Nasaq? For reference, S&P has increased 313% since 2012 while Nasdaq has kicked its arse at 501%.
The common answer would be Nasdaq, however if you look at Nasdaq from Jan 2000 to Jan 2009, it dropped 65%. To take the recession out of this, even if you look Jan 2000 to Aug 2011, Nasdaq still dropped 50%. That sucks -50% for over a decade at beginning of millennium.
And since investing is all about forward looking. What do you think performs better in the future, S&P 500 or Nasaq? For reference, S&P has increased 313% since 2012 while Nasdaq has kicked its arse at 501%.
The common answer would be Nasdaq, however if you look at Nasdaq from Jan 2000 to Jan 2009, it dropped 65%. To take the recession out of this, even if you look Jan 2000 to Aug 2011, Nasdaq still dropped 50%. That sucks -50% for over a decade at beginning of millennium.
This post was edited on 4/16/25 at 7:13 pm
9
Posted on 4/16/25 at 7:21 pm to Saunson69
quote:
Do you think there is a single individual on this board that has beat S&P 500 or Nasdaq over last 15 to 20 years?
A regular investor in stocks traded on the NYSE/NASDAQ without some sort of insider deal with their company..
Not a chance
Posted on 4/16/25 at 7:29 pm to Saunson69
I beat it the 7 out of the last 10 years and I’m up over the last 10 years combined over the S&P.
It’s by pure luck though
It’s by pure luck though
Posted on 4/16/25 at 7:46 pm to Saunson69
You should be investing in companies not the stock market. I always invest in companies that I use often and see value in the service they provide. Costco and Amazon are 2 examples. I knew Amazon was going to be great in 2006 when I started ordering products cheaper than purchasing in the store, shipped to the house for free and could also return for free for $79/year. Same thing with Costco, using their rewards program paid for the membership itself not to mention the cost savings of buying in bulk
Posted on 4/16/25 at 8:21 pm to Saunson69
I got the hell beat out of me for the most part from 2012 until the big correction in 2022. My biggest position was Visa during that period so that softened the blow a bit but still terrible. I looked at Nvidia’s income statement from their earning release in like May of 2023 and dumped a lot in it. I’m not a genius. It was just THAT obvious if you were looking. That turned the tide nicely.
I started switching to predominantly being in btc ETFs and gold early last year and sold my last share of any stock around Christmas last year in favor of btc and gold.
Gold was just kind of a sound money lucky hunch (that I had been in to a certain degree since 2020) but I’m convinced that btc will take an enormous amount of oxygen from the market at some point. it absorbs capital unlike any other asset. But yeah low beta go with gold and high beta go with btc. Better sharpe ratio than I’ve seen anywhere else.
I started switching to predominantly being in btc ETFs and gold early last year and sold my last share of any stock around Christmas last year in favor of btc and gold.
Gold was just kind of a sound money lucky hunch (that I had been in to a certain degree since 2020) but I’m convinced that btc will take an enormous amount of oxygen from the market at some point. it absorbs capital unlike any other asset. But yeah low beta go with gold and high beta go with btc. Better sharpe ratio than I’ve seen anywhere else.
This post was edited on 4/16/25 at 8:26 pm
Posted on 4/16/25 at 8:53 pm to Saunson69
My Fidelity account has only been opened since 2015 but I am at beating the SP500 quite handed since then:
Posted on 4/16/25 at 9:21 pm to Saunson69
Beating this or that…meh.
(1+k)^n to cross the ENOUGH finish line
Enough = be able to do what you want, when you want, with whom you want, for as long as you want.
(1+k)^n to cross the ENOUGH finish line
Enough = be able to do what you want, when you want, with whom you want, for as long as you want.
Posted on 4/16/25 at 10:14 pm to Saunson69
QQQ has double the return of VOO in a 15 year window.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 4:58 pm to Saunson69
Can’t beat em- join em
Buy
Spy
Qqq
And equal weighted ETF’s of the same indexes
Buy
Spy
Qqq
And equal weighted ETF’s of the same indexes
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:10 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
My Fidelity account has only been opened since 2015 but I am at beating the SP500 quite handed since then:
Primarily due to those MSTR calls I assume.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:18 pm to slackster
quote:The calls played a nice part but I'm equally as heavy in MSTR shares too. I started that thread here that gets bumped from time to time when it was $14 (split adjusted). Jumping into GBTC many years ago too. I also went decently heavy into various oil stocks in the early covid 2020 days then rolled nearly all of them into FBTC Jan 2024. Plenty of smaller moves but those are the big plays
Primarily due to those MSTR calls I assume.
This post was edited on 4/17/25 at 8:21 pm
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:22 pm to ItzMe1972
quote:
QQQ has double the return of VOO in a 15 year window.
Probably semantics with how you worded it, but IVV (same concept) has returned 12.5% vs 16.79% for QQQ. I realize that difference over 15 years means IVV has returned 487% vs 931% for QQQ, hence the doubling concept. It’s nearly tripled it over 20 years, but has “only” returned 532% over 25 years vs 482% for IVV. Took 20 years from 2000 to pass IVV.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:23 pm to TigerTatorTots
Basically a portfolio of BTC stocks would certainly do the trick.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:27 pm to slackster
quote:
a portfolio of BTC stocks would certainly do the trick
Posted on 4/17/25 at 8:41 pm to slackster
. I realize that difference over 15 years means IVV has returned 487% vs 931% for QQQ, hence the doubling concept.
--
I have a technology background, having worked for Silicon Valley companies.
My investment in QQQ was in 2008 and 2009. Basis average $32/share. I am happy with over 1300% return over 16-17 years. I have put up with the volatility and have done ok.
--
I have a technology background, having worked for Silicon Valley companies.
My investment in QQQ was in 2008 and 2009. Basis average $32/share. I am happy with over 1300% return over 16-17 years. I have put up with the volatility and have done ok.
Posted on 4/17/25 at 9:13 pm to slackster
I saw it coming enough to go nearly all in
Posted on 4/17/25 at 11:39 pm to Saunson69
I couldn’t tell you but I generally expect I am lagging it even being 100% in equities.
I have some international exposure and it’s dragged vs SP500. That alone is enough to throw off a “beat”.
I have some international exposure and it’s dragged vs SP500. That alone is enough to throw off a “beat”.
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