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Bracket strategy
Posted on 3/20/24 at 6:02 am
Posted on 3/20/24 at 6:02 am
Do you weigh the “momentum” of teams going into the tournament?
Or do you like “rested” teams?
I like Kentucky to make a run. They are rested, but I thought they played their best basketball the last 3 weeks of the season.
I like Tennessee for a run. They played good all year, but laid an egg in Nashville. The extended rest has to help.
I looked at Kansas. Legendary coach. Extended rest. However, McCullers is not going to play. Had great wins in November/December. Unlucky with injuries down the stretch and got stretched thin.
UConn, Iowa State, Illinois, and Auburn are playing great basketball.
Alabama can get hot and beat anybody, but their last few weeks were not their peak performance.
A monkey throwing darts would have beat my bracket picks last year. No 1,2,3 seeds in final four.
Will the seeds hold serve better this year?
Or do you like “rested” teams?
I like Kentucky to make a run. They are rested, but I thought they played their best basketball the last 3 weeks of the season.
I like Tennessee for a run. They played good all year, but laid an egg in Nashville. The extended rest has to help.
I looked at Kansas. Legendary coach. Extended rest. However, McCullers is not going to play. Had great wins in November/December. Unlucky with injuries down the stretch and got stretched thin.
UConn, Iowa State, Illinois, and Auburn are playing great basketball.
Alabama can get hot and beat anybody, but their last few weeks were not their peak performance.
A monkey throwing darts would have beat my bracket picks last year. No 1,2,3 seeds in final four.
Will the seeds hold serve better this year?
6
Posted on 3/20/24 at 6:49 am to makersmark1
Brackets are won from the Elite 8 and onward.
You have to zig when everyone else is expected to zag and hope it pays off.
I won multiple brackets in 2015 when undefeated Kentucky lost to Wisconsin. I picked Wisconsin not because I thought they would win, but because I knew everyone was picking Kentucky.
You have to zig when everyone else is expected to zag and hope it pays off.
I won multiple brackets in 2015 when undefeated Kentucky lost to Wisconsin. I picked Wisconsin not because I thought they would win, but because I knew everyone was picking Kentucky.
This post was edited on 3/20/24 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 3/20/24 at 8:58 am to makersmark1
Fill out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 brackets all differently so that you're guaranteed to have a perfect bracket.
Posted on 3/20/24 at 9:14 am to makersmark1
Kansas could lose in 1st round & Bama won’t get by St. Mary’s
This post was edited on 3/20/24 at 9:15 am
Posted on 3/20/24 at 9:29 am to makersmark1
quote:
Do you weigh the “momentum” of teams going into the tournament?
Not really.
It's obvious, but I like teams that are balanced. That means solid on both defense and offense. The reason is simple. They can beat you multiple ways.
Aside from the injuries, I don't love a team like Kanas this season. They are a good defensive team. But they aren't a particularly good offensive team. Same for teams like St. Mary's, Mississippi St., Iowa St.
On the flip side, I don't love teams like Alabama, Kentucky, Baylor, Florida, FAU. Great offensive teams. Can't guard anyone. Defense usually carries the day in the NCAA Tournament. So while a tremendous offense team can win multiple games, they always have a ceiling because their bad defense catches up to them.
Who fits the "balanced" role best of all? UConn, UNC, Auburn, Arizona, Purdue, Houston. I'd be pretty surprised if one of those 6 isn't your National Champion.
EDT for the OP: I laid a little bit of money on Auburn to win it all. They are really good when then get it going. Of course, this was before they were placed in UConn's bracket. That could be a potential heavyweight Sweet 16 battle if those two make it through the first two rounds (and I think they will).
This post was edited on 3/20/24 at 9:33 am
Posted on 3/20/24 at 9:52 am to makersmark1
I have won two large office pools recently by picking an underrated team playing better and better at the end of the year to win it all (Baylor and UCONN) and going mostly chalk on the other games.
You have to find darkhorse team that everybody else is ignoring and hope the top seeds fall before the final. Most of the points come towards the end. The first round games are worthless in most scoring pools.
Admittedly that's hard to do this year. The gap between the favorites and darkhorses seems to be bigger. But that also means less competition for an atypical bracket.
Posted on 3/20/24 at 10:00 am to AUFANATL
Purdue seems like a good pick that everyone will be off of because of their repeated failures in the tourney
Posted on 3/20/24 at 10:23 am to makersmark1
I mostly pick the higher seeds...I rarely watch college basketball and I figure the people who made the seesings know more about the teams than I do...but after picking thos way for over 20 years...I can assure you they don't!
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