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Has any of you had success using Sagarin Ratings to handicap college football games?
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:19 pm
LINK to Sagarin's College Football Page
Curious how often this method is correct...
quote:
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 79.
Curious how often this method is correct...
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 3:21 pm
10
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:22 pm to Chicken
No Dunkel, no care
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:23 pm to Chicken
I don’t think any widely available power rating system is good enough to bet blindly and win 53% of college football games…otherwise Jeff Sagarin would not be publishing them publicly.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:25 pm to gizmoflak
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:28 pm to Chicken
I has not. I will test it.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:30 pm to Chicken
TBH, I haven't looked at the Dunkel Index since perusing it in The Advocate in the early 90's
ETA: it might have still been The Morning Advocate at that point
ETA: it might have still been The Morning Advocate at that point
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:39 pm to Chicken
I've used that quite a bit during my college years. It didn't help. Whatever the programs/formulas the oddsmakers are using to determine power rankings, they are more accurate than Sagarin's.
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 10/31/23 at 3:40 pm to Chicken
Doesn’t help you avoid the major upsets that happen every week
This post was edited on 10/31/23 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 10/31/23 at 5:16 pm to Chicken
quote:
Curious how often this method is correct...
It’s certainly lines up with the Vegas line for Bama - LSU whereas FEI, etc have it a much closer game on paper.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 8:55 pm to Chicken
quote:Hey Chicken, trying to put this correctly, but I don't trust Sagarin (or his ratings) at all.
Curious how often this method is correct...
I literately had many back and forth conversations with this dude 20+ years ago and he couldn't explain shite at the time. I'm a confessed nerd and wanted to discuss. He isn't nearly as intelligent as him getting traction equals.
On the opposite side IMO, is KenPom (basketball) and really get great insight. Vegas has kinda caught up though in that regard.
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:19 pm to Chicken
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:29 pm to Chicken
Do the opposite of pjs picks
Posted on 10/31/23 at 11:56 pm to Chicken
quote:I was curious too and tracked the past few weeks outcomes and found it isn’t as successful enough to win you money like any great model should.
Curious how often this method is correct...
However if you just take the largest spread of their rankings compared to Vegas spreads the past couple weeks the top 3 picks were 3-0 and 2-1 which is excellent. The further into the season, the more data points the more accurate any decent model should be. I’ll edit and screenshot the top picks this week if Im able to get through plugging in all the updated rankings and spreads of this weekends games.
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