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Major college football will leave the NCAA by 2030
Posted on 6/15/24 at 8:21 pm
Posted on 6/15/24 at 8:21 pm
The only thing keeping the NCAA in power is the fact that the schools continue to agree to it. Once enough realize they've yielded oversight of their multi-billion dollar industry to a bunch of pencil pushers with no financial interest, it'll be over.
What will happen in rough chronological order:
- The major conferences will form their own league and playoff structure comprised of maybe 60 teams.
- The smaller conferences will continue to be associated with the NCAA and that will be true college football going forward.
- A college football players' union will crop up shortly after, and they'll start getting paid a lot for their playing time.
- The academics requirement will be dropped in the ensuing years-- will no longer have to be in good standing or even a student to play for a school
- They'll actually create a salary cap and create rules around transfers/trades.
- They will eventually drop the eligibility limit, people can play for as long as they want
- Will allow players to come back after a few years in the NFL.
- Basketball might follow suit.
- Full on football minor league.
What will happen in rough chronological order:
- The major conferences will form their own league and playoff structure comprised of maybe 60 teams.
- The smaller conferences will continue to be associated with the NCAA and that will be true college football going forward.
- A college football players' union will crop up shortly after, and they'll start getting paid a lot for their playing time.
- The academics requirement will be dropped in the ensuing years-- will no longer have to be in good standing or even a student to play for a school
- They'll actually create a salary cap and create rules around transfers/trades.
- They will eventually drop the eligibility limit, people can play for as long as they want
- Will allow players to come back after a few years in the NFL.
- Basketball might follow suit.
- Full on football minor league.
17
Posted on 6/15/24 at 8:43 pm to Thundercles
Yea no
Posted on 6/15/24 at 8:59 pm to Brian Wilson
quote:
Yea no
Which part is inaccurate?
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:12 pm to Thundercles
Overdue to be perfectly honest.
NCAA is a joke and has been for awhile now. NIL stuff completely exposed how useless and feckless they really are.
NCAA is a joke and has been for awhile now. NIL stuff completely exposed how useless and feckless they really are.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:16 pm to Thundercles
As long as there is a game.....there will be a governing body on top of it. Let's say you remove the NCAA, now the SEC office holds increased power.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:26 pm to thejuiceisloose
quote:
As long as there is a game.....there will be a governing body on top of it. Let's say you remove the NCAA, now the SEC office holds increased power.
Sure, but probably a board made up of conference chairs rather than some randos in an NCAA office somewhere
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:27 pm to Thundercles
I’ll take the under for sure
This system is not sustainable
They will break away
This system is not sustainable
They will break away
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:28 pm to Tridentds
quote:
NCAA is a joke and has been for awhile now. NIL stuff completely exposed how useless and feckless they really are.
Yep, I did some poking around as to what ties college football to the NCAA, and the only answer is "in order to play NCAA football you have to be in the NCAA and adhere to our rules." Meaning that when the day comes and a bunch of schools opt their football program out, everything else continues as normal.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:29 pm to Thundercles
quote:
Which part is inaccurate?
Mostly everything except your op and maybe 1& 2 lol
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:29 pm to Thundercles
quote:
- The academics requirement will be dropped in the ensuing years-- will no longer have to be in good standing or even a student to play for a school
This occurred in the genesis of college athletics.
quote:
Colleges offered all manner of compensation to talented athletes. Yale reportedly lured a tackle named James Hogan with free meals and tuition, a trip to Cuba, the exclusive right to sell scorecards from his games—and a job as a cigarette agent for the American Tobacco Company. Ibid.; see also Needham, The College Athlete, McClure’s Magazine, June 1905, p. 124. The absence of academic residency requirements gave rise to “ ‘tramp athletes’ ” who “roamed the country making cameo athletic appearances, moving on whenever and wherever the money was better.” F. Dealy, Win at Any Cost 71 (1990). One famous example was a law student at West Virginia University—Fielding H. Yost—“who, in 1896, transferred to Lafayette as a freshman just in time to lead his new teammates to victory against its arch-rival, Penn.” Ibid. The next week, he “was back at West Virginia’s law school.”
LINK
This post was edited on 6/15/24 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:34 pm to Thundercles
quote:
Which part is inaccurate?
If any of these come true, you’re going to see a lot of fans tune out because they couldn’t even pretend that this was college football anymore
quote:
- The academics requirement will be dropped in the ensuing years-- will no longer have to be in good standing or even a student to play for a school
- They will eventually drop the eligibility limit, people can play for as long as they want
- Will allow players to come back after a few years in the NFL.
I think the breakaway league outside of the NCAA is realistic but thats going to come with its own set of problems. All those lower and middle tier Big 10 and SEC teams that are used to picking up 3-4 non-conference wins a year to help themselves get bowl eligible are going to be hurting when their fan support dwindles because people stop showing up for perennial 2-4 win teams when they’re not playing OOC games against G5 and FCS teams anymore. Then the schools who are consistently championship contenders and draw the biggest TV ratings will demand a bigger slice of the media revenue pie.
This post was edited on 6/15/24 at 9:37 pm
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:35 pm to TackySweater
quote:
Mostly everything except your op and maybe 1& 2 lol
You think the players wouldn't unionize to ensure they're getting a good deal and treated fairly?
You think business executives wouldn't eventually start to form a predictable financial model around their programs?
You think a school would hold their star quarterback out of the playoffs because he didn't pass Algebra I?
You think schools would let their star player walk after four years just because they used to graduate?
You think teams wouldn't start to form rules around players just heading over to their rival free and clear?
You think basketball programs which is also wildly profitable and also under the archaic thumb of the NCAA and treat school even less seriously would say "looks neat for them, but no thanks"?
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:36 pm to Thundercles
quote:
The academics requirement will be dropped in the ensuing years-- will no longer have to be in good standing or even a student to play for a school - They'll actually create a salary cap and create rules around transfers/trades. - They will eventually drop the eligibility limit, people can play for as long as they want - Will allow players to come back after a few years in the NFL.
No. Even these will not happen. They will still have to take classes. Pro players will not be coming back because if they are washed out of NFL they are likely hurt
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:38 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
If any of these come true, you’re going to see a lot of fans tune out because they couldn’t even pretend that this was college football anymore
I think that's true and something that could ultimately tank the sport after a few years. It's honestly already detached enough feeling now since the veil has been lifted on how little the major schools care about academics and how mercenary the players are about NIL.
I also think you're right about the small schools suffering. It would dramatically shrink the footprint college football at the schools that kept it a pure sport.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 9:40 pm to jcaz
quote:
No. Even these will not happen.
Why would they keep the academic requirements if the NCAA wasn't forcing them? A large number of players completely ignore them and openly cheat their way through as it is.
And keep in mind that amazing college players fail to convert to the pros ALL the time. Absolute college studs that spend a year or two in the NFL and can't make a roster would absolutely crush it back at college.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 10:25 pm to Thundercles
None of that’s going to happen lol
Posted on 6/15/24 at 10:37 pm to Thundercles
quote:
You think basketball programs which is also wildly profitable
Not really. Regular season college hoops TV ratings ain’t exactly great. If you break away from the NCAA, goodbye use of the tournament. Sure you can start another tourney, but without the branding of “March Madness”, you’ll lose a significant amount of casual viewers.
Posted on 6/15/24 at 10:50 pm to TackySweater
quote:
None of that’s going to happen lol
You probably also thought:
- There would never be a 12 team playoff
- Conferences wouldn't radically realign every three years
- Players would never be able to sign multi million dollar marketing deals
- Colleges would never pay players
- Players would have a transfer portal and freely swap schools between seasons without waiting a year
If you really don't see the sport wildly evolving every single year then I feel sorry for your brain power
Posted on 6/15/24 at 11:10 pm to Thundercles
Who do you think runs the NCAA?
Posted on 6/15/24 at 11:39 pm to Thundercles
quote:
The major conferences will form their own league and playoff structure comprised of maybe 60 teams.
I agree with your overall sentiment but it will be a number less than that. Only the SEC and BIG (each probably expanded some by then) will deem it worth all the nonsense and money to have good football teams.
The rest of CFB will just play in another league, with some resemblance to the way amateur sports should be.
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