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Surprise national champions used to be more of a thing back in the day...
Posted on 4/10/25 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 4/10/25 at 12:47 pm
More often than not, teams that start out ranked in the Top 5-10 preseason are going to be your national champions. However, there once was a time where this wasn't necessarily the case - the 1980s in particular. Going back to the start of that decade, the following teams started out ranked outside the preseason Top 10 only to go on to win the national championship:
1980 Georgia Bulldogs: preseason rank = #16
1981 Clemson Tigers: preseason rank = Unranked
1983 Miami Hurricanes: preseason rank = Unranked
1984 BYU Cougars: preseason rank = Unranked
1988 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: preseason rank = #13
1990 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: preseason rank = Unranked
1997 Michigan Wolverines: preseason rank = #14
2000 Oklahoma Sooners: preseason rank = #19
2002 Ohio State Buckeyes: preseason rank = #13
2003 LSU Tigers: preseason rank = #13
2010 Auburn Tigers: preseason rank = #19
2013 Florida State Seminoles: preseason rank = #11
It has been going on 12 years since a team ranked outside the Top 10 at the beginning of the season went on to win the national championship, by far the longest drought since 1980. What is causing this do you think? The centralization of talent? Improved voting accuracy from pollsters? Other factors that aren't otherwise obvious? Pure coincidence?
1980 Georgia Bulldogs: preseason rank = #16
1981 Clemson Tigers: preseason rank = Unranked
1983 Miami Hurricanes: preseason rank = Unranked
1984 BYU Cougars: preseason rank = Unranked
1988 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: preseason rank = #13
1990 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: preseason rank = Unranked
1997 Michigan Wolverines: preseason rank = #14
2000 Oklahoma Sooners: preseason rank = #19
2002 Ohio State Buckeyes: preseason rank = #13
2003 LSU Tigers: preseason rank = #13
2010 Auburn Tigers: preseason rank = #19
2013 Florida State Seminoles: preseason rank = #11
It has been going on 12 years since a team ranked outside the Top 10 at the beginning of the season went on to win the national championship, by far the longest drought since 1980. What is causing this do you think? The centralization of talent? Improved voting accuracy from pollsters? Other factors that aren't otherwise obvious? Pure coincidence?
12
Posted on 4/10/25 at 12:50 pm to RollTide1987
I mean the rankings until at least 1990 were made by sportswriters who had likely never seen 20+ out of the top 25 play. This is almost certainly more of a lack of information issue than it is a consolidation of talent or other competitive factor
Posted on 4/10/25 at 12:59 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
What is causing this do you think?
not sure if you were looking for this answer or not, but saban.
From 2008-onward his recruiting and alabama's rise simply put a chokehold on the sport to where the little guy simply had no chance. Looking at your list there are only 2 teams post-saban on there, both of which happened to have the best player in the country at QB leading them.
Before saban's death grip on the sport there was A LOT more parity everywhere. It felt like even into November there were typically a handful of teams that you could reasonably see winning it all. From 2011-2020 it was pretty much alabama and maybe one or two other teams that could say the same.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 1:01 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
not sure if you were looking for this answer or not, but saban.
I wasn't. However, I think it's a lot more complicated than just one man. He might have been the catalyst for change, but I feel like change was coming regardless of Saban's tenure at Alabama or not.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 1:09 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
I think it's a lot more complicated than just one man. He might have been the catalyst for change, but I feel like change was coming regardless of Saban's tenure at Alabama or not.
I disagree. I think a lot of the changes to the sport (prior to the cliff it ran off about 5 years ago) were sipmly due to being tired of alabama win all the time. I certainly don't think the playoff talk, and evnetual expansion, would've happened when it did if not for that.
Let's pretend saban was never born and in 2007 alabama hired someone really good but obviously not to saban's level. Hell let's just say rich rod took the job. For complete and total hypothetical discussion's sake let's say the few years of natties looked like this, which isn' too far fetched and I tried to be somewhat realistic:
07- LSU
08- UF
09- UF
10- AU
11- LSU
12- UGA
13- FSU
14- Oregon
You've got representation from 3 different leagues, with representatives from a handful of other leagues all making noise at times as well (Oklahoma/Texas/USC/ND/Clemson/etc). With the parity spread out a bit I think everyone coast to coast remains somewhat happy. But in reality with it being "alabama and everyone else" for over a decade the PTB felt something had to be done bc things were getting hella boring seeing one team dominate every year
Posted on 4/10/25 at 1:11 pm to RollTide1987
I think it was just harder to get a handle on how good certain rosters would be in relation to each other back in the day vs how easy it is now, so the rankings are more accurate.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 1:19 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I think it was just harder to get a handle on how good certain rosters would be in relation to each other back in the day vs how easy it is now, so the rankings are more accurate.
The college game wasn’t as QB centric back in the day… more teams were running wishbones, triple options, whatnot. Now it’s more homogenous and the QB is a bigger factor
Posted on 4/10/25 at 6:51 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
It has been going on 12 years since a team ranked outside the Top 10 at the beginning of the season went on to win the national championship
This streak will be over by no later than 2030, an underdog team will hit a hot streak in the playoff.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 7:10 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Surprise national champions used to be more of a thing back in the day...
Because going undefeated was the bottom-line benchmark, there were no do-overs, no exaggerated regional bias and/or ESPN monopolies yet and voters didn't scrutinize schedules as if no one else played good football beyond certain schools because, maybe some TV monopoly hadn't invented the eye test yet just to game the voters and rake in dough.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 7:13 pm to RollTide1987
Lsu 2003 defense was really one of the all time greats I would argue lsus best D ever. That D line was incredible. You had Saban muschamp and Kirby coaching them.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 7:34 pm to RollTide1987
We will never see another 1984 BYU again. It was unbelievable. Washington could have won the NC, but was upset by USC in the Coliseum. Oklahoma and Switzer lobbied hard for the NC, but lost to UW in the Orange Bowl.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 7:38 pm to RollTide1987
Would love to see a thread on college basketball national championship game participants over the years. These teams could have won a national title in the second biggest college sport: Seton Hall, San Diego State, Butler, Jacksonville, Indiana State, Dayton.
Posted on 4/10/25 at 8:51 pm to RollTide1987
We have infinitely better understanding of the players on rosters these days. We know where the championship talent is. The media didn’t have a Scout or a Rivals to even calibrate back then. They also couldn’t watch games not on the ~5 TV channels they had, and most of what they knew about teams came from newspaper box scores. Today’s media is still unbelievably uninformed but compared to back then the difference is massive
The contenders are the teams that recruit the most talented players. We know who these teams are a lot easier these days, ergo we know who the contenders are
The contenders are the teams that recruit the most talented players. We know who these teams are a lot easier these days, ergo we know who the contenders are
This post was edited on 4/10/25 at 8:56 pm
Posted on 4/11/25 at 3:58 am to RollTide1987
quote:
1980 Georgia Bulldogs: preseason rank = #16
1981 Clemson Tigers: preseason rank = Unranked
1983 Miami Hurricanes: preseason rank = Unranked
1984 BYU Cougars: preseason rank = Unranked
1988 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: preseason rank = #13
1990 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: preseason rank = Unranked
1997 Michigan Wolverines: preseason rank = #14
2000 Oklahoma Sooners: preseason rank = #19
2002 Ohio State Buckeyes: preseason rank = #13
2003 LSU Tigers: preseason rank = #13 2010 Auburn Tigers: preseason rank = #19 2013 Florida State Seminoles: preseason rank = #11
Two of these teams (1980 UGA and 2010 Auburn) were led by GOAT level players that made an enormous difference. A few of them were split titles. And several others were not (IMO) truly the best team in the nation at the end of the year, even though they may have been a deserving champion.
I think Nebraska was a lot better than Miami in 1983, even though they lost on a 2 pt. conversion attempt in the Orange Bowl.
I think Miami was a hair better than ND in 1988, even though they lost on a 2 pt. conversion attempt in the Catholics vs. Convicts game.
I think Nebraska was better than Michigan in 1997.
I think Miami would have trounced OU in 2000.
I think Miami was better than OSU in 2002.
I doubt 1981 Clemson, 1984 BYU, and 1990 GT win a national title with a playoff format.
quote:
The centralization of talent?
This plus the path to a national title is more rigorous now. It takes more than one historic upset amongst a lot of mediocre competition to win a national title nowadays.
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:55 am to RollTide1987
Money, and bias officiating directly affecting the outcome of games.
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:57 am to RollTide1987
quote:
2013 Florida State Seminoles: preseason rank = #11
Next season the playoff was implemented. Better teams proving it on the field, not in BCS rankings
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